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More on BlackBerry: Pac Crest's James Faucette, who has been bearish for a while, says checks...

More on BlackBerry: Pac Crest's James Faucette, who has been bearish for a while, says checks indicate Feb. quarter Z10 shipments are in the 275K-325K range, below a consensus of 1M. He also forecasts just 1M-1.5M shipments for the May quarter, and thinks the Z10 is cannibalizing Bold 9900 sales. "There is no line of sight to profitability," Faucette declares. Meanwhile, Jefferies' Peter Misek remains bullish, and claims European and Middle Eastern Z10 launches have gone well.
Comments (33)
  • This is no surprise. The CEO was caught exaggerating UK sales the other week. Said the new phones had all sold out when in fact the shops were having trouble shifting them!
    20 Feb 2013, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • @pagreen1966 - "Blackberry Z10 Did Sell Out After All Says Phone4U"

    20 Feb 2013, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Quit confusing facts with reality.


    21 Feb 2013, 04:55 AM Reply Like
  • Here's two thoughts related to sure slow death of Blackberry. 1) My brother works for a fortune 100 company which now does not allow employees to order blackberries. All new mobile devices must be iphones or Andriod.


    2) Comcast just emailed me earlier in the week that they will no longer support their app for blackberry (used to check my Comcast email on my Blackberry).


    Slowly but surely, everyone giving up on Blackberry.
    20 Feb 2013, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Maybe they are trying to stop people buying the older model.


    Comcast? Get an account. Everything is going to the cloud. That of course, is fully intergrated into the BB10 experience.
    20 Feb 2013, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • Why would you need an app to check e-mail, on any smartphone? Sounds like a very odd set-up from Comcast. I have friends still using AOL and they have no trouble checking e-mail on their smartphones.
    20 Feb 2013, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Is that company in the USA?
    Is Comcast in teh USA?


    The world does not revolve around the USA anymore. So, if you want to address teh other 95% of the world population, please do so.
    21 Feb 2013, 04:54 AM Reply Like
  • Just in the USA. Globally, BlackBerrys are still well known. Millions of teenagers in the UK still use them. Indonesia is the 4th largest market in the world and it is the most popular phone (granted the price point is a bit out of reach for some - but not all).


    Be careful just looking at what is doing well in the US... this is a global manufacturer. Would you decide not to invest in Google just because they are failing in the Chinese market? BlackBerry happens to be squeezed out of the American market by American companies.


    Don't miss value by forgetting to look globally.
    21 Feb 2013, 07:00 AM Reply Like
  • They don't Blackberry to have ant success.
    22 Feb 2013, 01:18 AM Reply Like
  • Would anybody pj? What sort of success do ants have, anyway?
    22 Feb 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • Note in the first article that Pacific Crest "remain sellers in the company", meaning they have short interest. The volume of options plays is massive at the moment. In order to justify that, and in some attempt to cash in on that, shares need to be talked down.


    The only people commenting negatively fit one of the following:
    1. own AAPL and want to talk down competitors
    2. have a short position in BBRY
    3. have friends with short positions in BBRY
    4. are fanboy$ of other brands of electronics
    5. lost money in the past on RIMM (BBRY) and have a vendetta against the company succeeding in the future
    6. are trolls fishing for reactions


    Analysts suggested that the prior BB6 and BB7 devices were obsolete, yet they continued to sell in significant numbers. Now some of the same analysts decry that BB10 devices might "cannibalize" BB7 sales. Good thing analysts don't run technology companies. ;)
    20 Feb 2013, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • Hmmmm...The shorts get more bearish...and time gets shorter for the shorts...BBRY long and prosper...IMO.
    20 Feb 2013, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • From Jefferies:


    "We remain well above St for the May Q and Aug Q (we estimate 4M BB10 sales at a $600 ASP and 30% GM in each quarter) but reiterate that it is not just about the phone. We continue to see software opportunities in mobile device management and BYOD to drive value." The firm maintained a Buy rating and price target of $19.50 on BBRY.
    20 Feb 2013, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Misek is the credible source between the two
    20 Feb 2013, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Hmm, still seems pretty early to be casting dies. General forums posts tend to indicate most quite satisfied with the product. There are a few niggles and annoyances but most seem to be a software update or two away from resolution so I wouldn't put too much stock in that aspect. Any of these types of products have some 1.0 release items that usually get sorted out relatively quickly.
    As for units sales, it sounds like there may be some shipping shortages to some areas causing stock out situations vs massive sales. I think waiting till US release and end of Q2 will be a better yardstick.
    And yes, a lot of the news seems very biased and makes it hard to pull the signal out of the noise.
    20 Feb 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • BBRY has just released product weeks ago. A million a month is within reach. One to two months tops. Don't be detracted. this is the old RIMM. They will be shooting for the moon and soon. Between there highly secure product offering and the interest in being acquired by other Foreign tech companies. The skies the limit. Buy more shares if you can.
    20 Feb 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • All I can say is that here in Toronto, Z10 sales continue quite nicely. Have been in a variety of stores including Bell, Rogers and even Walmart and see customers looking and buying the Z10. I'll believe the data when Blackberry announces.


    Way too many doomsayers here with their own agendas.
    20 Feb 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa, I concur. Don't believe the negative hype, bb10 and QNX are here to stay.
    20 Feb 2013, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Anyone that would state that there would only be 270,000 units sold is nuts. If you are investing in this crowd, I would get out right away.


    Simple math will show you that there are about 5000 retailers in Canada selling BlackBerry. This includes Radio Shacks, Future Shops, Best Buys, Loblaws, WallMarts, Bell stores, Rogers, Telus, Kiosks and so on.


    I you assume that that number is double in the UK (with double Canada's population), there are a total of 15000 retailers in the two countries.


    Lets just say that they all received an average of 10 phones and will sell 10 more in one month. That totals 300000 phones.


    I have been to a significant number of retailers. They are all short of inventory and receiving inventory daily. Meaning whatever number they are getting, they are selling.


    Even if they only got and sold 2 per day, based on a 20 day month that is 600,000 units. At 3 per day, they are pushing a million.


    Keep in mind that this is only Canada and the UK. Now France and the richest parts of the Middle East are on board.


    It is absolutely obvious that these guys are fudging the numbers down to try to drive the stock down. It will bite them soon!
    20 Feb 2013, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • pj- you rock!
    20 Feb 2013, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • LY, why call pj a rock? He seems quite intelligent to me!
    21 Feb 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Thank you. Don't tell anyone but it was only grade 3 math.


    Kind of makes me wonder how bright these analysts are?


    We might as well add South Africa, Singapore, Germany and Italy to the equation with India only days away.
    22 Feb 2013, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • This chorus singing to the death of Blackberry has got me wondering. Adroid security is porous. The recent hack into Apple exposes security concerns with the iphone platform. No security breaches as yet have been raised about Blackberry. Is the consuming public really more concerned about playing "Angry Bird" for free, than identity theft? The sad fact may be, that the answer is yes. That answer would be a sad indictment of the consumer, and a truly worrisome problem for Blackberry.
    20 Feb 2013, 06:41 PM Reply Like


    It seems there is an exploit for BlackBerry Enterprise Server, though of course that would not affect someone using an individual BlackBerry not managed under a company umbrella.


    The reality is that most consumers have no "need" for a smartphone, but they "want" a smartphone. So desire trumps practical matters in decision making. Games are by far the most popular apps, and the best sellers amongst paid apps. Style, design, perception in the public, and ease of use are some considerations. Screen size, colour choices, and the ability to change a battery or add memory are other considerations. An easy to use camera that allows easy sharing of images is very important. Security amongst consumers is almost not thought of at all.
    20 Feb 2013, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • That Exploit to BES was actually repaired with a patch before it was even published about
    21 Feb 2013, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • Remember fellas stock price is the final ...unbiased say on the matter.....have stops in place harm if your bullish....but this is a crowded field with thin room for error...and BBRY has alot of catching up to do...
    20 Feb 2013, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • I think the rest of the field has alot of catching up to do with BBRY.
    20 Feb 2013, 10:45 PM Reply Like
  • This is the way that I see it: (time to do the math – follow along)


    63 M Population of UK
    35 M Population of Canada
    8 M Population of UAE


    106 M Population of where Z10 was launched (1 phone only)


    World population = 6.98B = 1.5% of the world population where the z10 was available.


    Estimate of Z10 sold in the month of February: 300,000
    Time frame: Under 4 weeks


    If the Z10 was launched world wide, based on the same ratio, there would have been 20 Millions Z10 sold in 1 month. = 60 Million Z10 in a quarter.


    Therefore the analyst that called BBRY to sell 1.75M in under 4 weeks is really saying: BBRY should have sold 116M phones if it launched worldwide in February.


    That's awesome !!!!.


    20 Feb 2013, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • There is nothing in the bearish slant to suggest that the roll out is anything but orderly. As for breaking consensus goals....? I am not sure how meaningful these are given that no one knows the hard numbers. Keep in mind that sales for the company are global and will include other products inaddition to the rollout of the new and newer items.
    Thus we do know that for the quarter past shipments of BB product not including the new blackberrys as these had not been launched was just shy of 7 million.
    So are the pundits saying bb sales will crater from this down to the low six figure K?
    I believe sales of the new products as they are launched and continue to be available will grow exponentially.
    In due course there will be product launch in the US, and the delay was not the fault of BB, so why yammer on and punish bb regarding this especially when the pundits used an imaginary figure regarding sales and then just as creatively readjusted it downwards, when no one knows the specifics beyond what was reported for the previous quarter which we do know did not include the Z10 and Q10 because they had not yet been launched. why not meld the projections with an estimate of ongoing sales of older product rather than excluding these from mention...And sales will grow of the new product post launch. We will get some sort of a benchmark but we wont get the full picture for several quarters. And what of the QNX systems and the evolution of Visa payments enabled by blackberry and new apps going into the mix.
    As each day goes by there are new apps reported just as there will be more sales.


    it is early days and the figures will grow
    21 Feb 2013, 03:12 AM Reply Like
  • Ordered a white Z10 on Feb 11 with my service provider. I am receiving a notice almost everyday now telling me that the phone is on back order and that they will notify me as soon as it is shipped.


    That could give you an idea of the demand this phone has.
    You will be surprise to see the number of units sold, and how many people are switching from Android and Iphone back to Blackberry. Count me in.
    21 Feb 2013, 05:04 AM Reply Like
  • Good luck with your purchase mbr23a. Please keep us up to date and let us know how you like your Z10.
    21 Feb 2013, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • If sales are really that bad, why did the 2 major retailers in UK raised their prices after launch? Am glad I bought mine right after launch or I would have fork out at least another 40/70 quid.
    22 Feb 2013, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • That's a pretty good sign, eh unb?
    22 Feb 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
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