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Tesla Motors (TSLA): Q4 EPS of -$0.65 misses by $0.13. Revenue of $306.3M beats by $7.4M. Shares...

Tesla Motors (TSLA): Q4 EPS of -$0.65 misses by $0.13. Revenue of $306.3M beats by $7.4M. Shares -2.8% AH. (PR)
Comments (28)
  • Anton Wahlman
    , contributor
    Comments (805) | Send Message
     
    The only thing that matters in this report is that they have accelerated profitability by 9 months (4Q13 to 1Q13) while maintaining the 2013 sales goal of 20,000 cars. This is a clear incremental positive.
    20 Feb 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3982) | Send Message
     
    good to know things are so simple at that company.. wish every company was as easy to see that it's healthy...
    20 Feb 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • youngman442002
    , contributor
    Comments (5131) | Send Message
     
    they had the CNBC test drive yesterday...and all I saw was the carmeister waiting at rest stops for over an hour to charge up....I will never change my lifestyle that much to drive an $80,000 car...
    20 Feb 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3982) | Send Message
     
    the hour long charge up is only the "superchargers" if you don't have one of those around it can take 4+ hours. So it doesn't get better it gets worse....

     

    still though the car is super nice and really fancy... hopefully in 2-3 years they can extend the range and draw down charging times.
    20 Feb 2013, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • Vico Confino
    , contributor
    Comments (199) | Send Message
     
    It won't be much longer until you will be waiting in gas lines for 2-3 hours or more to fill your tank. The future is here, get on board.
    Vico
    Tesla S owner
    20 Feb 2013, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3982) | Send Message
     
    lol Vico you really think with the current oil and gas boom going on right here in the US that we'll be waiting for 2-3 hours in 'gas lines'?

     

    Tesla made a great product but lets not get crazy stupid just yet
    20 Feb 2013, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • JackB125
    , contributor
    Comments (255) | Send Message
     
    In typical American driving patterns, you would be waiting for your Model S to charge on long trips during 1% of your traveling. During the other 99% of your travels, you would charge overnight at home -- never having to waste time at a gas station again. If you compare the time "wasted" refueling a gas ICE vs. recharging a Model S, the typical American driver is much better off with the Model S.
    20 Feb 2013, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • bbor55
    , contributor
    Comments (153) | Send Message
     
    Yes.. this is so inconvenient to be waiting an hour to charge this car the 3 times a year I and everyone else drives over 240 miles...

     

    I waste three hours every day reading useless social media websites, watching television, and responding to people on seeking alpha.. is 3 hours a year really a big deal?
    20 Feb 2013, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • speedofov
    , contributor
    Comments (91) | Send Message
     
    "I will never change my lifestyle" comment would apply to most of us. The fact is that I generally drive in a 50-100 mile radius and the overnight charging keeps my car fully charged.
    When I drive from San Francisco to Los Angeles and return once a month, I plan to stop once for lunch of 45 minutes, while the car charges to capacity and again for 30 minutes while I get a cup of coffee at Starbucks. I save about $150 on each round-trip and get to drive the most amazing auto on the highway.
    Maintenance, so far, is nil and they are updating the software about once a month to add more features. The car is expensive, but so was the Mercedes CLS 550 that I sold when I bought the Model S.
    21 Feb 2013, 06:53 AM Reply Like
  • JackB125
    , contributor
    Comments (255) | Send Message
     
    Anton, I absolutely agree. I was worried about their R&D, SG&A, as well as the CAPEX for the upcoming Model X. But it looks like they have really gotten a handle on their expenses for 2013. I'm somewhat astounded that they have such a positive profit outlook for 2013. I wasn't expected this much of a profit stream for another 9-12 months. Sounds like very good news to me. In light of this forward looking news, I can't understand why the after-hours trading has gone negative. Is it just traditional analysts worried about the 2012 4Q loss per shares? Any thoughts?
    20 Feb 2013, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • Sharif Galal
    , contributor
    Comments (93) | Send Message
     
    Very good question JackB125. I'm wondering the same thing, looks like a typical straddle then sell off on earnings, down 6% after hours right now. http://bit.ly/155NgcH
    20 Feb 2013, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • Techtrader10
    , contributor
    Comments (350) | Send Message
     
    They are loosing money by the bushel full, what are you looking at JackB125. I don't see any positives here, there is no profit stream. I am surprised the sell off isn't greater, we will have to wait until regular trading starts tomorrow to see how bad this is going to get.
    20 Feb 2013, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • wipster
    , contributor
    Comments (162) | Send Message
     
    Then don't buy one youngman442002, it doesn't sound like it's the car for you. How often do you drive 200+ miles anyway?

     

    If I were in the market for a new Mercedes S class or BMW 7 series, I'd take a good long look at the Tesla because it would get me from where I live to Seattle (~225 miles) in warm silent comfort, where I could do my business, charge it up for zip zero nada at the Supercharger that will soon be installed while enjoying a Starbucks Pumpkin Latte and reading the Times, and then drive home, where, as I plugged it in in my garage, I would smile and laugh about the most enjoyable trip I just took that cost me a fraction of the $100 or so in fuel charges I would have paid in my E320 for gas.

     

    And the beauty of it is, not only will the technology (both battery and other updates/upgrades) just continue to get better, but I'm also making money as a shareholder of Tesla stock, which is now up over 20% since I purchased it earlier this year... if this continues, I'll be able to put in an order for an S just on the money I've made from the stock...

     

    Go Tesla!
    20 Feb 2013, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • spybreaker
    , contributor
    Comments (235) | Send Message
     
    wow, what a rosy picture.... "enjoying a Starbucks Pumpkin Latte and reading the Times" lol
    20 Feb 2013, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • wipster
    , contributor
    Comments (162) | Send Message
     
    Obviously you've never enjoyed a Pumpkin Latte sitting on a comfortable couch in a Starbucks on the west side and read a Seattle Times... it is a rosy picture because it's so damn enjoyable, and I do it whenever I can, locally as well. I don't know where they plan to install their Supercharger(s) in the Puget Sound area, but I can guarantee you a Starbucks or other great coffee shop won't be far away (I think they're an option in all new houses and condos being built there now as well :-) ) I would have said microbrewery too, but I don't want to encourage driving after drinking, especially in a car that gets as much attention as this one.
    20 Feb 2013, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • jpw1116
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    Oh, wait--it must be the Seattle Times. . . .
    21 Feb 2013, 06:41 AM Reply Like
  • jpw1116
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    Agreed on all your points, wipster . . . aside from the choice of coffee, and newspaper. You were being facetious on that one, right?!
    21 Feb 2013, 06:43 AM Reply Like
  • spybreaker
    , contributor
    Comments (235) | Send Message
     
    No man, I really have a lot of better things to do than wait an hour or two for my car to power up and get back on the road while killing the time by sipping starbucks coffee while reading the times.
    21 Feb 2013, 07:25 AM Reply Like
  • wipster
    , contributor
    Comments (162) | Send Message
     
    jpw, Paper yes, coffee no... I love that Pumpkin Latte! Personally, I really miss the PI, that one typically took two lattes to read.

     

    And spybreaker, even when I'm driving my ICE vehicle I usually take the time out to drop by a Starbucks or Tullys when I'm over in the Emerald City to get my own engine recharged before I head back over to the East Side (and I don't mean Bellevue), so if I ever get one of these puppies, it will be awesome to kill two birds with one stone (or stoner since we are talking about Seattle, WA)... ;-)
    21 Feb 2013, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Techtrader10
    , contributor
    Comments (350) | Send Message
     
    Limited charger availability, long times to charge batteries, major expense to replace batteries...where is this company going? This is as good as it gets, and goes down hill from here. It's time to get real, take your profits if you have them and run. But in the real world the investors will stay with this stock and ride it down to nothing. I will admit, I am now short the stock, good luck to you "investors". Let's face the facts, there is no where for this stock to go, the easy money buyers have ordered, the easy states have there dealerships and you aren't going to get a lot of people buying this car in Canada where battery life is be very limited, and expensive to replace.
    20 Feb 2013, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • JackB125
    , contributor
    Comments (255) | Send Message
     
    Techtrader10, it might be prudent to wait a couple of days to see how things shake out before adding any additional short positions. 4Q losses were higher than predicted during Tesla's ramp-up period. But this shouldn't be that much of a shocker. Start-up activities often go over budget. The real shocker for me is that Tesla is probably in the middle of its first profitable quarter (non-GAAP basis) & it's still holding a little over $200,000 in cash. Looking at the negative points that you bring up, please keep the following counter arguments in mind...

     

    Limited charger availability: 1) How many car companies provide their customers with gas stations to provide them unlimited free fuel? 2) Tesla is planning on adding hundreds of additional supercharging stations over the next 2-3 years.

     

    Long times to charge batteries: 1) See my post above -- in the typical American driving pattern, a Model S owner will recharge at home overnight 99% of the time. No more weekly trips to the gas station for them resulting in much time saved. 2) Current superchargers run at 90 kW. They will soon be upgraded to 120 kW which will be able to charge a depleted 85 kWh battery to full charge in about 45 minutes. Not as fast as a gas fill-up, but not too bad. Also, don't forget to compare about $100 for a 25 gal tank of gas vs. free.

     

    Major expense to replace batteries: The batteries are warranted for eight years, but are expected to last 10-12 years. No doubt about it, batteries are the most expensive part of this car. However, if you plan on keeping the car over 8 years and are worried about this replacement cost, Tesla does offer a replacement plan when you buy the car. $12,000 for the 85 kWh battery -- not cheap. But keep in mind that you will never have the need of a replacement engine, transmission, exhaust system, fuel system, various pumps, hoses, etc. The Model S has only 20% of the moving parts of an ICE vehicle. Also that new battery 8-12 years from now is expected to have twice the energy density of today's battery. So you would be getting a much lighter 85 kWh battery which will give you better range or a much larger capacity battery which will give you better range.

     

    "... Canada where battery life is be [sic] very limited..." In very cold conditions, you should expect about a 10% loss of range. Gas vehicles also lose this range. The reason that the Model S only suffers a 10% loss of range in extreme cold is due to liquid thermal conditioning system that uses waste heat from the motor to keep the batteries at a good temperature. Note however, that unlike a gas vehicle, you must keep the Model S plugged in at night in cold temperatures. Fortunately, this is just standard operating procedure for the Model S in any environment.

     

    In any case, the next few days should be interesting.
    20 Feb 2013, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • User 8651581
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    > Limited charger availability
    True, can only charge at every 110V or 240V outlet anywhere in the world.

     

    > long times to charge batteries
    True, period. But I sleep 8 hours a day so I can charge my Tesla then.

     

    > major expense to replace batteries
    Wonder where this comes from. 8 year warranty on the batteries for all models. Expected depletion of battery at 8 years is 20-30%, not 100%. Replacement program about to be announced.
    21 Feb 2013, 05:23 AM Reply Like
  • spybreaker
    , contributor
    Comments (235) | Send Message
     
    we can solve the charging problem using an eco friendly solution for unlimited energy.... just fit a wind turbine on car's top. It'll charge while running...the faster you run, the more power you can generate. WoW! Like, who wants to wait five minutes to pump gas for their car? That's soooo 2013. Better than that would be to enjoy a Starbucks Pumpkin Latte, reading the Times and updating your facebook status while charging your car for an hour at a super charger! Go Tesla!
    20 Feb 2013, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3337) | Send Message
     
    Can't you see this is not a time for humor Spy?!
    20 Feb 2013, 11:05 PM Reply Like
  • spybreaker
    , contributor
    Comments (235) | Send Message
     
    Atleast it's obvious that I'm humoring.... there are some folks for whom that's hard to tell - they talk about enjoying an hour's wait while their EV is charging reading the times and sipping starbucks Pumpkin Latte coffee. Some people (and cars) are blessed to have so much time in life...can't say the same thing about batteries though.
    21 Feb 2013, 07:23 AM Reply Like
  • wipster
    , contributor
    Comments (162) | Send Message
     
    Actually, with as much as the wind blows where I live, that's not a bad idea... not while driving obviously, but I've often thought about installing a windmill anyway. With ~300 days of sunshine a year, with a few solar panels and the windmill, I could reduce the charging cost to next to nothing and sell the excess back to the PUD!

     

    We have a saying about our weather here, "The wind doesn't blow, it sucks!" I guess that just depends upon your perspective now days.
    21 Feb 2013, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • Skywalker83
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Go Tesla!!!!!
    21 Feb 2013, 04:15 AM Reply Like
  • Richard James
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    People don't understand that the higher losses were due to one time worker training, and start-up overruns for the new assembly line, and other one time inefficiencies that were worked out with vendors. In addition, product development costs for the S and the next product Model X will be declining steadily during 2013.

     

    Musk et al must be seeing better than anticipated margins for 2013, that is why they moved up the profit date forecast to the first quarter.

     

    I wouldn't worry about the knee jerking after the numbers. We'll see $45/share by next week.
    21 Feb 2013, 06:46 AM Reply Like
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