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There's a 90% chance BB10 flops and BlackBerry (BBRY -3.7%) shares go to $7, argues MKM's...

There's a 90% chance BB10 flops and BlackBerry (BBRY -3.7%) shares go to $7, argues MKM's Michael Genovese, who is cutting the smartphone vendor to Sell. Genovese claims less than 10% of the most popular Android apps, and less than 5% of the most popular iPhone apps, are available on BB10. He also thinks U.K. Z10 momentum has stalled, and that carrier checks "suggest unwillingness to carry heavy BB10 inventory." Several other firms have also issued critical notes on BlackBerry over the last 7 days (I, II, III, IV); shares -15% since the BB10 launch event.
Comments (70)
  • There's a 100% chance that the lead link above is messed up.
    22 Feb 2013, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • Indeed. It's now fixed.
    22 Feb 2013, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Wow. Another story based on speculation and guessing. Maybe the authors should understand that the totals of apps on both iPhones and Android are bloated. 4000 flashlights? Over 400K have never been downloaded once.
    I think that BB is doing us a favour by not bringing over a lot of the garbage.
    22 Feb 2013, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • The Forbes article leans heavily on the idea that the number of Android aps already available on BB10 is small, three weeks after launch. Really? Gee.


    I am wondering if they were aware that aps can be ported to the BB10 if there is a demand for them. I mean, are they completely ignorant about how aps are made available to new platforms? And when? What will they whinge about when a million aps are avaialble on a BB10? That it too too long?


    I have seen several mentions of Forbes being strongly negative on BB10 no matter what the circumstances. It is interesting to me that I have never heard a report about Forbes discussing the 120m shares that are being shorted and that those managers of same are getting skinned and might, just might, be trying to drive the stock down with bone-headed press in order to limit their losses before the US launch. CNBC won't touch the BBRY stock manipulation issue, instead dishing out the usual pro-Apple and anti-BBRY comments.


    It seems lack of balance and perspicacity rules the world of financial blogs. The products of BlackBerry are business and enterprise management tools, not mini-PlayStations. So what if only 10% of the horse-crap Android aps are available (already) on a BB10? Any employee of mine who has time to load and play hundreds of games on their business phone will probably get a small bonus for reasons of poor productivity.
    22 Feb 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • My thoughts exactly. The target demographic, at least initially, are not Angry Birds users. Its a substantial, solid, loyal business community who appreciates the security and enterprise focused capabilities of a Blackberry. The BB10 OS has some very innovative and unique features that will easily capture their large and very anxious fan base. Me included. I'm still impatiently waiting with my now outdated BB Bold and chomping at the bit for a new BB10 phone.
    22 Feb 2013, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • @Crispin


    1. "Any employee of mine who has time to load and play hundreds of games on their business phone will probably get a small bonus for reasons of poor productivity."


    This is a funny and convenient justification that nobody but BlackBerry longs will buy.
    P.S. And what happened to the story that BlackBerry has a business mode and a user mode?


    2. "The Forbes article leans heavily on the idea that the number of Android aps already available on BB10 is small, three weeks after launch. Really? Gee."


    Some of this disappointment stems from the fact that BlackBerry decided against some sort of compatibility layer to support legacy apps. In fairness, I do understand the technical challenges here, but it is still a problem for anyone with a horde of now useless apps.
    Imagine if Apple broke compatibility with all previous apps with their next new phone release and used the excuse "Oh, but it's a new OS..." $AAPL would get absolutely creamed in the stock market.


    3. "I am wondering if they were aware that aps can be ported to the BB10 if there is a demand for them."


    Of course this is realized. But we can't judge the BlackBerry on pure potential, sometimes we need to judge the reality of the product today since that's in fact what the customer will take home with them.
    24 Feb 2013, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • Only those people that have no idea about the mobile industry and technology, like Luke, focus on apps. The apps available on the Z10 is basically comparable ti iOS and Android once you get rid of the duplicates (I think Luke has all 1000 fart apps on his phone - hard working guy isn't he?!?! lol), and the completely useless apps. I've heard Android apps run better on the Z10 than on Android. Very impressive BB!! Bottom line, no one cares about the apps. Everything that 99% of the people want is there. The other 1% like Luke can have all those other apps. No problem!!
    24 Feb 2013, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • @Green, I think this says it all


    "“Moving away from BlackBerry meant we could give smartphones to more people because there were no more monthly licence fees to pay, or any increased monthly subscriptions,” explains Mr Lyford. “With yearly savings of approximately £14,400, we are now able to drastically increase the number of email-capable phones in use.”


    Nokia Lumia with Windows Phone was the solution for better syncing, better security and an intuitive interface. “They love the new Lumia devices because they’re smart, quick and have great functionality,” says Mr Lyford."
    25 Feb 2013, 12:34 AM Reply Like
  • Lets just get this straight. 99% of Android and iPhone apps are garbage, so only having 10% and 5% respectively is more than satisfactory...
    22 Feb 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • I disagree. I only found two iPhone apps that are garbage: the Seeking Alpha app and a martini app. Angry Birds app is quite fun (but can get boring like many other games). Chess app works great and it is easy to use. The iBooks app lets me download and read tons of books. (But I am sure Kindle is better, but do not have a Kindle.) Weather app lets me see where it is raining. Bus app lets me see where my bus is. Bloomberg app lets me save a portfolio of stocks so I can check them anywhere. Yahoo Finance app lets me connect to Yahoo Finance. Sports app does the same but also lets you just check ACC teams or NCAA teams and so on. And love the Financial Calculator app.
    22 Feb 2013, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • An app that will make me a martini! I'm in.
    22 Feb 2013, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • So you love the 1000 versions of the iPhone fart apps? Well then ... no comment!
    23 Feb 2013, 01:12 AM Reply Like
  • I doubt (AAPL) has fart apps in its app store. They are pretty strict on what type of apps they carry. If its on the black market, well, you can find anything on the black market. You can probably find a pirated DVD of Kevin Costner's Robin Hood.
    25 Feb 2013, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • They are all in the app store. Apple allows any poc to be sold. As long as they are making money, Apple does not care about anything or anyone. Just look at Foxconn. Apple is the biggest client and allows human atrocities to take place there every day. Apple doesn't give a damn about anything or anyone, only about the bottom line. That's why they are now a dying company. Old products, nothing new on the horizon (worth mentioning), supporter of Foxconn slave labor, etc. Goodbye Apple, hello BB.
    25 Feb 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Can you actually download it and drink it? Then what good is it if you can't download it and drink it?
    25 Feb 2013, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • Fear and dislocated facts feed investor anxiety....BBRY has a solid shot at this market segment and the above article proves it...Fear is starting to creep into the words of some analysts....IMO
    22 Feb 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • There's a 100% chance that he has shorting interest!
    22 Feb 2013, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • There is a 99% chance they've taken numbers out of the air and based this doom and gloom scenario on factless information.


    MR. Michael Genovese rejects the facts the Z10 is selling well, just came out, it's starting to penetrate the globe, and continues with strong momentum backed by strong supportive reviews by people that actually used the phone.


    I don't get why every single little news related BlackBerry situation needs to be painted with a doom scenario. Why are some so against competition, new technological advancements and new fresh innovation(s), something BlackBerry finally came out with?
    22 Feb 2013, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • There is NO doubt that there are several self serving analyst writing these stories. The analyst are obviously driving stock prices downward to sell their short options, and rake in the cash. What crap... the facts speak for themselves. Sales of the Z10 are very strong in the UK. Please press the author for the sources that this prediction is based on.
    22 Feb 2013, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • It seems those that bring in the negative factors on bbry are short bbry. They are setting up the playing field for a future sell-off of bbry. I don't see the help they provide to anyone that is long. So believe the hype if you like, but bbry will bounce back accordingly. This is not a dead company. This is a company with alot of assets and cash on hand. I'm long bbry.
    22 Feb 2013, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • @z10


    " I don't see the help they provide to anyone that is long. "


    Of course not.
    It's worth noting however that short and long positions are simply different sides of the same coin.
    It's not about love/hate or even right/wrong, it's about profit/loss.


    statements like "less than 10% of the most popular Android apps, and less than 5% of the most popular iPhone apps, are available on BB10." is no more damaging to investors that saying " bbry will bounce back accordingly" or "BB10 is the best OS, bar none, hands down."
    It all depends on your "investment" perspective.


    I guess what I find surprising is the emotional attachment many longs attach to a stock. It is this emotion which will often blind one to the realities whereby working against the often forgotten goal of making money.


    Disclaimer: long $BBRY puts, long $NOK
    24 Feb 2013, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • Good comment z10. Just ignore the babbling going on by these shorters. They are losing big money. lol.
    24 Feb 2013, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Seems like some of the market prophets are going hand in hand with a couple of the smart phone operating system and manufacturers.


    Facebook who own Instagram jumped into bed with Microsoft who created the Windows 8 operating system for mobile phones. Result seems to be (I could be wrong) a sudden change of heart regarding making Instagram available for the Z10 which will now have to use the Android ported version.


    Google withdrew support from Blackberry phones for Google Sync (Calendars and Contacts) and then for Gmail. It moved to CalDAV
    which would have been fine for Z10 users until it started actively blocking the Z10. (I have this from an extremely reliable source).


    What are both of these massive companies worrying about. Microsoft invested $1 billion in Nokia who are the main manufacturer of Windows 8 phones and Google has tight partnerships with Samsung (the largest seller of Android phones and tablets) and owns Motorola.


    When two of the rival companies seem to be running in fear from a competitor with less than 80,000,000 users they have to be worried.


    Form your own conclusions.
    22 Feb 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • First of all I don't have picture of my self. Now back to comment.
    The_C_Man you are right, there is nothing to fear but fear it self.
    Blackberry will succeed bar none. I think the reason for all the negative articles are the investors short share holdings. I for one is long.
    The one comment I read is, that CEO of Blackberry Thorsten Heins
    is a master of guerrilla marketing, and so far is doing a good job in keeping everybody guessing. He will reveal the sales news, when he feel it's time and not before. Time will tell if he is right.
    22 Feb 2013, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Okay, time to see the satellite images of all those customers entering the BB stores.
    22 Feb 2013, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • Michael,


    Unfortunately you won't be able to do that on the Z10 as Google Maps can't be installed.


    I was one of the first 250 to get one from Phones4U but you would not have seen me as I did it on line and managed to get a 64 gig Playbook thrown in.
    22 Feb 2013, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • I guess thats why retailers have RAISED the price of the Z10 in the UK by 10%...thats what retailers do when experiencing poor demand, right?


    These analysts are utterly corrupt and openly trying to manipulate the stock price with these bogus reports.


    Hey SA, how about checking the credibility of your sources before publishing their lies. Or are you only capable of copying and pasting artciles now?
    22 Feb 2013, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • We gotta get numbers for each BB "short" myth.
    1/ Apps...ha ha ...(70000 apps is not enough for a Phone user)
    2/ On the brink of collapse...(Guess almost 3 billion and no debt is earth shattering)
    3/ i-phone are as secure...( Bahhhha)
    4/ Jimmy's Hardware etc. drpped all their BB s for i-phone....(That 1200 phones were dropped by Jimmy is hardly earth shattering)


    So from now on we don't need to define the argument ....we just need to say ..."Oh Yeah...#1...Ha hah Hah...or this article says #1+ #3....Ha!
    Or and Shorts ....don't forget to bring out articles from a year or so ago for your in depth reporting of "Objective Truth".
    22 Feb 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • What i do not get is BBRY as a short is not very appetizing at 13.30. Sure it can drop a little more or a lot more, but it can also move up very fast on any good news. With 30% short interest, this is a very dangerous stock to short.
    22 Feb 2013, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • days like this leave me feeling nervous.
    22 Feb 2013, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • Seems everyone is long BBRY in these forums...although stock price is truth.....don't let your emotions cloud that fact....just some worthless advice...I have learned the hard way on other stocks
    22 Feb 2013, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • I am actually neutral on BBRY. I use options both ways ( short strangle) to capture the weekly premium. Other words i sell the put and the call option for the same week. ( not the same strike price)
    Looking to sell very soon( by 3 45 pm) the next week 12.5 put for 25 cents and the 15 call for about 12 cents.
    22 Feb 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Im long bbry. But they said thatbb10 doesn't have alot of the popular apps.


    Sure you can sideload but what percentage of people will actually do that?


    To much enecdtoal info. Bb10 is going to have 10% market share in UK and Canada by years end.
    22 Feb 2013, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • CEO. Thorsten Heins said he won't allow junk apps to run on the Blackberry os, only quality upper end apps that Blackberry approves. The man has spoken, stop worrying about hear sake.
    22 Feb 2013, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • hear 'sake'


    now that's what I'm hoping to hear coming from Japan when/if BB and SONY partner up!
    22 Feb 2013, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • Sony (SNE) is more likely to team up with Apple (AAPL). Both are in the entertainment business.
    22 Feb 2013, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • I'm surprised they didn't just try to rehash the Samsung story again, its only been used 3 times in the last 10 days to scare people into selling.


    Judging by the rather low volumes of BB/BBRY the last week (below 50% of daily avg), I'd say people have wisened up and are holding for the US launch when the share price will go up.


    I was under the impression most shortsellers struck at $12 but now I'm hearing some shorted even lower (around $9). If you tell your boss you'd make a quick 3-4 million but instead put them in a position of owing a few million on buyback, I'd be sweating for my job too. Even if it remains in the high 13s, these guys are out between 10-40%.


    Best to just ignore all negative news for now. Its probably just the same stuff from a different analyst anyway.


    Writer yesterday put it best, "the shorts are throwing everything including the kitchen sink" in a panic attempt of deflating the price.
    22 Feb 2013, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • The stock will not reach this price again after the launch in US.. BB is doing a lot more then just these two phones..They have a lots of developers pushing new apps on daily basis..And testers fixing minor glicthes. It will be ahead of iphone in few days.
    22 Feb 2013, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • 1 comment pumper.
    22 Feb 2013, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • 1 comment pumper? Oh, OK.
    22 Feb 2013, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • In the first week after BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY) launched its new Z10 smartphone, many analysts and observers claimed that early sales in the U.K. and Canada (two of BlackBerry's top three markets) were very strong. More recently, though, sentiment has been turning against BlackBerry. Several analysts have issued bearish forecasts for Z10 sales, arguing that initial sellouts were due to low unit shipments rather than high demand.


    Investors should try not to get too worked up about the sales rumors that have been flying around Wall Street. First, there is no way to judge the accuracy of these rumors; we will not know the true level of device shipments until BlackBerry reports earnings next month. Second, the other device BlackBerry has announced -- the Q10 QWERTY keyboard model -- will not go on sale until next quarter. Since the keyboard is a major attraction for BlackBerry's biggest fans, it is likely that many are waiting for the Q10.


    The latest rumors
    On Wednesday, Pacific Crest analyst James Faucette stated that his checks point to roughly 300,000 BB10 unit shipments in the current quarter, below the consensus of about 1 million units. Furthermore, he expects only 1 million to 1.5 million shipments next quarter, below consensus of 3 million to 4 million. Another bearish analyst, Michael Walkley of Canaccord Genuity, wrote on Tuesday that BB10 devices are not likely to sell well because they will have the same subsidized price of $199 as Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone 5 and Samsung's upcoming Galaxy S IV.


    Apple's iPhone and Samsung's Galaxy S and Galaxy Note smartphones are all very strong competitors, but analysts who are solely focused on the competition are missing the point. The smartphone market is massive, and BlackBerry only needs to secure a small niche (perhaps 5% of the market) to justify a much higher share price. With nearly 20 million devoted BlackBerry fans in the U.K., U.S., and Canada, the company is virtually assured of seeing a strong upgrade cycle this year. To remain relevant thereafter, all the company needs to do is convert a small percentage of iPhone and Android users in the next few years.


    Timing is not everything
    The best way to think of BlackBerry's current strategy is that the Z10 touchscreen phone aims to poach users from the iPhone and various Google Android devices, while the Q10 QWERTY phone aims to keep existing BlackBerry users happy. I am not very worried about reports of slow Z10 sales, primarily because many of the existing users will wait for the Q10. Meanwhile, with the Z10 in stores, BlackBerry can try to raise consumer awareness of the new platform.


    The "late" release of the Q10 does not bother me, either. While the Q10 will become available close to the expected launch date of Samsung's Galaxy S4 (and even the rumored iPhone 5S), it addresses a different market, and is thus not really in competition with the Samsung and Apple offerings. Regardless of the exact country/carrier launch timings, I expect BB10 devices to sell well and put BlackBerry back in the black in the coming year.


    Like any company going through a major transition, BlackBerry has encountered its fair share of naysayers. But over the next few years, BlackBerry is likely to prove doubters wrong. Even once-untouchable Apple has hit a wave of negativity in recent months, with many prominent investors questioning whether Apple remains a buy.
    22 Feb 2013, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • Agree. Both the positive comments are overly (and probably too bullish and the negative comments are too bearish.
    22 Feb 2013, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • A few few moments ago CNBC reported a warning on Blackberry. Also, CNBC interviewed 2 analysts and both said its going to be difficult for BB to survive. One analyst said that if the stock drops to under $13 that the bears are going to take control of the share price and drive it down to the ground. If the share price reaches $16 than the bulls are going to run the price up. Both analysts think this is a crucial period for the stock as both bears and bulls are indecisive in terms of their investment. Most of what they said is what we have been reading here in the forum.


    Whats disturbing is that the stock market came back roaring today and Blackberry was one of the worst stocks in the session.
    22 Feb 2013, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • What does the have to do with how many phones BB is selling.
    Everyone that I talk to that has one, says that they love it.


    That is a really great sign.
    23 Feb 2013, 07:15 AM Reply Like
  • These analysts are trying to influence the markets so they can reduce the losses for their clientele that they've told to short the stock. Notice how all the negative analysis has come from the US (95% anyway)? The US is known to not like BB. The US is irrelevant. That market is of no concern to anyone any more (except Apple). The large large majority of analysts that have any respect have picked BB to go up, way up. That's all that matters.
    23 Feb 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • It would be awesome if those pushing short positions get to see that $7 strike, because I would be happy to buy at that level. I'm still looking at a mid 2014 time point for BlackBerry. However, given the massive open interest and options activity, I do not recommend anyone buy shares at this time. There will need to be several quarters of solid numbers before any real idea of valuations can be determined. At the moment the options players are having a tug of war to determine share price direction.
    22 Feb 2013, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • I agree. If this stock does go down to $7, it could very much be a buy. I would wait a quarter or two before buying.
    22 Feb 2013, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • I love these analysts who keep on downgrading BB. This will
    have the effect of lowballing sales expectation. Eventually,
    this will give me the short squeeze that i am looking for.
    ....Netflix 2.0


    BB investors, this is downgrade is good news.
    22 Feb 2013, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • I can see where the blind can indeed lead the deaf dumb and blind...
    22 Feb 2013, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • This ranks right up there with the world coming to an end last year. Oh wait, that was BS, just like this is BS. MKM is a known market manipulator. Clearly they have recommended shorting BB to their clients, and are not trying desperately to save face. It won't work. Long BB is the only move.
    23 Feb 2013, 01:15 AM Reply Like
  • i love articles like this one, because i hope the price goes down so i can stop kicking my own ass, for selling BB a while ago. I want to re-load. Please Lord one more chance.
    23 Feb 2013, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • You didn't read my article.


    But then again, I wish I followed my own advise.
    25 Feb 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • BB will never be bought. They won't allow it. Too good of a company right now with the best products around. They will make longs very happy. Long BB.
    25 Feb 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • You missed the point of the article.
    25 Feb 2013, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • The point of the article is to try to hurt Apple stock so the fools that shorted it lose less money. Unfortunately, that won't happen, as no-one listens to MKM's Michael Genovese, as he is a nobody, and totally incompetent. I hope he loses his house. That would be appropriate for slime like him. Long BB.
    25 Feb 2013, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • "The point of the article is to try to hurt Apple stock so the fools that shorted it lose less money. Unfortunately, that won't happen..."
    1) I never wrote about (AAPL) in the article, the one directly 3 posts above your comment.
    2) So you think (AAPL) stock will rise, too? I'm with ya on that.
    25 Feb 2013, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • Sorry, I made a mistake in my comment. Should have been BB, not AAPL. BB will be going way up, and APPL will be sub-$300 by year end, probably by the summer, where it belongs. And btw, BB will never be bought out. Not gonna happen.
    25 Feb 2013, 11:24 PM Reply Like
  • The point of my article was that (BBRY), RIMM back then, was cheap enough that it could have been a takeover candidate, and thus undervalued. Whether it would be bought or not was not the point. The point was to prove that it was undervalued.


    And yes, I doubted that (NOK) would be bought, too.


    Plus, Canadian laws make a buyout of (BBRY) very hard. Didn't the government say it is not for sale.
    25 Feb 2013, 11:40 PM Reply Like
  • And, using the article, what does it tell you about (BBRY) at current price?
    25 Feb 2013, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • yes gov't has come out saying it will block any foreign takeover and instead wants to see it grow 'organically'.
    25 Feb 2013, 11:44 PM Reply Like
  • @Michael: Sorry, I missed the link. I agree back then it was an attractive takeover company, but not now, and I don't think they want than anyway. Too much potential to make shareholders millionaires at this time.
    26 Feb 2013, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • Um, technically if you use the same metric, EV/EBITDA, as in the article, it is still below 4, the most common level to determine if a company is worth buying.
    26 Feb 2013, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • But they will not allow a buy, and most shareholders, like me don't either. Way too much upward potential. In two years, it will be a $100+ stock.
    26 Feb 2013, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • I think Warren Buffett said it best: “Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful
    23 Feb 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • So is it time to be fearful on (BBRY). The bulls are extremely (and probably overly) bullish. Then again, the bears are overly bearish.
    25 Feb 2013, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • The next time you listen to one of these Bear analysts you will notice that they talk out of the side of their mouth, do to the fact they have no Facts just rhetoric or someone elses twisted opinion , we must remember that these guys are no different than the Lobbyist in Washington that are paid the big bucks in their interest and not yours.
    23 Feb 2013, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • EXACTLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    25 Feb 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • 90% chance this analyst is a tool.
    25 Feb 2013, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • Now LYogi, that comment made me laugh.. but it's not very Yogi like.
    Try this:


    OM saha navavatu
    saha nau bhunaktu
    saha viryam karavavahai
    tejasvi navadhitam astu
    ma vidvishavahai
    OM shanti, shanti, shanti


    hehe ;-)
    26 Feb 2013, 01:34 AM Reply Like
  • @Yogi: Best comment on this article. Thanks!! But I think it is more like 99.9999999999 (repeater) %.
    26 Feb 2013, 09:46 AM Reply Like
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