"Only 1.3m Blackberry 10 units would be sufficient to push [BlackBerry] into the black" in the...


"Only 1.3m Blackberry 10 units would be sufficient to push [BlackBerry] into the black" in the May quarter, estimates Bernstein's Pierre Ferragu, staying bullish on BlackBerry (BBRY +1.3%) even as many on the sell-side offer downbeat views on BB10 sales. Baird's William Power is the latest to offer such a take. "Last week virtually all reps we spoke to [in the U.K. and Canada] were unaware of inventory levels, which would seem to imply that fewer customers have been inquiring about the device."
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Comments (47)
  • Closet Iguana
    , contributor
    Comments (155) | Send Message
     
    Maybe a better question to ask the reps is "how are they selling?".
    25 Feb 2013, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Shergar
    , contributor
    Comments (166) | Send Message
     
    or a better question could be "what has it got in its poketses, eh precious?"
    26 Feb 2013, 12:09 AM Reply Like
  • A good year
    , contributor
    Comments (237) | Send Message
     
    Are some of these analyst so lacking intelligence, and why does seeking alpha publish comments that have no intelligent insight?
    25 Feb 2013, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (3168) | Send Message
     
    to help us Longs acquire more shares at cheaper prices ;)
    25 Feb 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • EchuOkan1
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    I ask myself the same question. I read a blog from another guy that had no clue as to how to calculate profit margin. His posting was so wrong in many levels that I stopped reading it after the third paragraph.
    27 Feb 2013, 02:27 AM Reply Like
  • Closet Iguana
    , contributor
    Comments (155) | Send Message
     
    (hand raised) I've been there.
    Every time I get caught in blogs like that I blame himself. Generally I get caught by being tricked by a catchy subject line. It's not dissimilar to that feeling of being sitting through a horrible movie because I was duped by a movie-trailer.
    27 Feb 2013, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • PersephonShropshire
    , contributor
    Comments (137) | Send Message
     
    "Last week virtually all reps we spoke to [in the U.K. and Canada] were unaware of inventory levels, which would seem to imply that fewer customers have been inquiring about the device."

     

    Is this guy 10 years old or what? How dumb can a person be and still get a job as an "analyst"?
    25 Feb 2013, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Kurt Windibank
    , contributor
    Comments (1304) | Send Message
     
    Comments like "Virtually All" don't really tell us a whole lot. Who did they ask? Part time staff rarely have an accurate take on anything. How many stores did they check? I have done the same and my results are directly opposite of what they are reporting. Who to believe? I'll go with thorsten
    25 Feb 2013, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • kherman
    , contributor
    Comments (863) | Send Message
     
    How did wWilliam Power draw that conclusion.

     

    FWIW: The UK alone probably got close to 1 million this quarter.
    25 Feb 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Crispin_in_Waterloo
    , contributor
    Comments (1688) | Send Message
     
    Testing the UK and Canadian has given BBRY a hint of things to come in the West. Testing in South African, India and Singapore is a hint of things to come in South and Asia. The analysis seems to be that it going to be a good year. They have consequently raised the production rates in anticipation of a global expansion in sales.

     

    Bring on the PB BB10 please. We want tablet-based BBM!
    25 Feb 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • santorama
    , contributor
    Comments (104) | Send Message
     
    Let us see....
    .Ramping up production and shipments
    .Raising prices on sold units without contracts in UK
    .Restricting sales to only those buying carriers' contract
    .Restricting sales to one per customer
    .Retailers losing potential sales as their inventories can not keep up with the demand
    .50% of sales are to ex Apple and Google phone owners
    . Heins indicating that sales levels are exceeding their expectations

     

    Are all those bearish signs? Absolutely, but only for those who are shorting the stock.

     

    Long Live BBRY
    25 Feb 2013, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • fatfat
    , contributor
    Comments (148) | Send Message
     
    As much as i like BB, i have a bad feeling about it just looking at chart....with the Americans on one side aapl, goog, AND the Chinese on the other huawei, and ZTE.

     

    wheres the market for BB; UK, Canada, India, Indonesia, and the middle east maybe?
    25 Feb 2013, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • Whatzit
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Thats a lot of phones for the UK .......?
    26 Feb 2013, 03:14 AM Reply Like
  • laodong
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    You do not know China. Chinese like something new from oversea, not Huawei or ZTE. The problem for BB in China is the marketing strategy and sales channel
    26 Feb 2013, 06:15 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (7059) | Send Message
     
    The symmetric triangle http://bit.ly/Z30una (BBRY) could be bearish or bullish. http://yhoo.it/XKI77u It hasn't made a third leg up yet to confirm the pattern. But right now, the stock looks bearish. I fear it is now forming what looks like a descending triangle, which is bearish. http://bit.ly/X8dN7l
    26 Feb 2013, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • chattyintrovert
    , contributor
    Comments (123) | Send Message
     
    This stock is moving on any news... not on actual growth or lack of it... the symmetric triangle means nothing one year from today.

     

    With a recent article siting a tangible asset value of $12.42... the current stock price looks damn fine regardless of the chart pattern.

     

    If you plan to buy and hold for a long time... you should be just fine.
    28 Feb 2013, 03:24 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (7059) | Send Message
     
    Yup, over the long run, fundamental analysis beats technical analysis. In the short-run, technical analysis usually wins.
    28 Feb 2013, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • chattyintrovert
    , contributor
    Comments (123) | Send Message
     
    Wow... must have been tired last night... recent article citing* not siting... good grief!
    1 Mar 2013, 12:34 AM Reply Like
  • A good year
    , contributor
    Comments (237) | Send Message
     
    You forgot South Africa, South America, and the Caribbean. BlackBerry only needs 10% market share in the USA for it to be a success. Don't get too preoccupied by the early numbers, most importantly BlackBerry needs to build its mindshare and make BB10 an exceptional device, they have taken care of the device now it's the mindshare.
    2 Mar 2013, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  • boomdoger777
    , contributor
    Comments (158) | Send Message
     
    Anyone who wants the best smart phone out there wants a BlackBerry! fatfat
    25 Feb 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • fatfat
    , contributor
    Comments (148) | Send Message
     
    it maybe the best, but the chart say its going to 12$ in the short term. aapl, and goog are the anchors in the mighty smartphone market, and their relationship with the carriers suggest it.

     

    WHEN is BB10 kicking off in the good ole USA. why even bother with a superbowl ad. better off giving the money to foodbanks!

     

    iam net long aapl via uncovered weekly puts.
    25 Feb 2013, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • EchuOkan1
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    So, following your comments on BBRY wasting money on an add to tell the people what is coming, then the entertainment industry should not do previews ads of movies that will be released in the future with no specific date (i.e., "coming summer 2013"), right?
    27 Feb 2013, 02:24 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (7059) | Send Message
     
    I haven't seen one (BBRY) ad.
    27 Feb 2013, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • chattyintrovert
    , contributor
    Comments (123) | Send Message
     
    We are seeing them quite a bit here in Canada... but only after it had been released. And now, the prices have been raised with my carrier which ticks me off... as I was planning on buying one. Just waiting to see the Q10 first.
    28 Feb 2013, 03:27 AM Reply Like
  • gwynfryn
    , contributor
    Comments (6479) | Send Message
     
    Well it has been on release here in France for a week now, and I've yet to see a mention of it, locally! It may be a different story in Paris...
    28 Feb 2013, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (7059) | Send Message
     
    Do your homework. Do not follow somebody's advice. Research and make your own decision.

     

    I don't know who to trust, but from my research, (BBRY) is still a buy. I don't give price targets. They usually are wrong and no better than the weather man's forecast for the temperature a month in the future. Instead, I use probabilities. (BBRY) is slightly less than $7 billion. Could it be $21 billion? Very probable. When? I have no clue. Maybe in five years.
    25 Feb 2013, 11:58 PM Reply Like
  • Closet Iguana
    , contributor
    Comments (155) | Send Message
     
    You are so right. Do you're own research. For me the smartphone will push consumers into mobile computing not imply sending text and email. I also think their management is superior to Apple and Nokia (maybe not Samsung is being run perfectly) simply based on this past year's decisions from above. Or in Apple's case lack of decisions.
    26 Feb 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Closet Iguana
    , contributor
    Comments (155) | Send Message
     
    ^*your not you're
    26 Feb 2013, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (7059) | Send Message
     
    Hehe, I still have trouble with grammar.

     

    On (AAPL), Tim Cook is not a great CEO and visionary.
    26 Feb 2013, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • Closet Iguana
    , contributor
    Comments (155) | Send Message
     
    I'm not a Apple shareholder but I can relate to the frustration they are having with Tim Cook, whom seems to be sitting on his hands. 140 billion in cash, do something! Grow your company, grow the economy! Same goes with the other cash hoarding corporations.
    27 Feb 2013, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (7059) | Send Message
     
    With so much cash, you would think they would find a better replacement for Jobs than the guy below Jobs. Not an (AAPL) investor either. Personally, I think there a better stocks which can grow faster. Wish I held (AAPL) back in 2004.
    27 Feb 2013, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • $digger
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    Does anyone have the short figures (US & Canada ) ?
    26 Feb 2013, 06:13 AM Reply Like
  • chattyintrovert
    , contributor
    Comments (123) | Send Message
     
    136,511,698 sold short as of Feb 15th, 2013. This is roughly 26% of the shares outstanding, and would take approximately 1 to 2 days to cover.
    28 Feb 2013, 03:35 AM Reply Like
  • nnsa
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    I think the bearish institutions (which are trying to protect their shorts) are trying to keep the price low for as long as they can hoping some bad news would come. Lots of trading on this stock, if the price goes up (above 15 or 16), there may be lots of selling for profits, ... and bearish institutions or those who shorted do not want that.
    26 Feb 2013, 06:48 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (7059) | Send Message
     
    Another 1 comment er...pumper. Are you the same person, because I have seen many of the same comments, just reworded differently. Each has the same message: the institutions/analysts are protecting the shorts. Anything new?
    26 Feb 2013, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • Jacko66
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    I think it's a great phone. Waiting to get out of my iPhone tenure to grab one!!!
    26 Feb 2013, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • eieio
    , contributor
    Comments (85) | Send Message
     
    The article states ......."Last week virtually all reps we spoke to [in the U.K. and Canada] were unaware of inventory levels, which would seem to imply that fewer customers have been inquiring about the device."
    Why would anyone expects store Reps to be aware of inventory levels of the products that they sell? These people are retail clerks who are responsible for selling a wide variety of phones, gadgets and internet services and plans. They are compensated on how much they sell and not by answering what they consider dumb questions from Analysts who waste their time.
    I'm sure that they also are unaware of the inventory level of white Apple earphones or black Apple TVs if you called an Apple store.
    A dumb unsubstantiated metric to base an article on.
    26 Feb 2013, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • gwynfryn
    , contributor
    Comments (6479) | Send Message
     
    Quite!
    26 Feb 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • lecso
    , contributor
    Comments (150) | Send Message
     
    Well, BBRY just dropped 4% on no news or any apparent reason. Shorts are in firm control.
    26 Feb 2013, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (3168) | Send Message
     
    news that the pentagon will be allowing iOs and Android devices beginning in 2014 to some of its employees. Not that it will matter much because by 2014 BB10 will be firmly entrenched as the go to OS.

     

    Also the market is down as a whole today.
    26 Feb 2013, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • lecso
    , contributor
    Comments (150) | Send Message
     
    Dow is up 50 points, Nasd. is flat. The market is not down at this point.
    26 Feb 2013, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • lecso
    , contributor
    Comments (150) | Send Message
     
    And : "UBS AG boosted their price target on shares of BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY) from $9.50 to $13.00 in a research note issued on Tuesday. The firm currently has a “neutral” rating on the stock."
    26 Feb 2013, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • chattyintrovert
    , contributor
    Comments (123) | Send Message
     
    Is anyone ever in "firm control"?
    28 Feb 2013, 03:37 AM Reply Like
  • Closet Iguana
    , contributor
    Comments (155) | Send Message
     
    As for this stock being bearish - take a look at the market as a whole. It's not pretty out there!
    26 Feb 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (7059) | Send Message
     
    February is usually a bad month. March 1 is Fiscal Cliff 2.0.
    26 Feb 2013, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • bradalles
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    I went into a Bell store in the Scotia Tower building in Toronto today where the rep informed me they were selling about 5 Z10's/day vs. 1-2 iPhone 5's and the same in Galaxy's. Said the response has been quite positive overall, and a steady supply of stock was continuing. He noted many inquiries regarding the Q10.

     

    Coincidently, there was a Blackberry team in the lobby of the same building demonstrating the Z10 where I had a chance to ask about the expected arrival of the Q10. She stated without hesitation late April-early May. Disappointing, but that's what I'm waiting for. Incidently, there was a reasonably large crowd around noon (25 people) watching consumers intereact with one of the 3 devices (all Z10's) they were showcasing which was interesting because there really was no reason to stand around watching otehr than it indicated good interest in this new phone even 3 weeks after launch.
    27 Feb 2013, 06:35 AM Reply Like
  • chattyintrovert
    , contributor
    Comments (123) | Send Message
     
    Roger that! Waiting to see what the Q10 is like before I decide on which one to buy.
    28 Feb 2013, 03:39 AM Reply Like
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