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The great Treasury bond bear market of 2013 takes a break as the EU crisis makes the front pages...

The great Treasury bond bear market of 2013 takes a break as the EU crisis makes the front pages again and sequestration maybe beginning Friday in the U.S. threatens a tad more fiscal tightening. The 10-year yield falls 7 bps to 1.89%. TLT +1.2%, now down just 2.7% YTD.
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Comments (9)
  • User 353732
    , contributor
    Comments (4910) | Send Message
     
    No ordinary middle class household or small business can borrow at rates in the low single digits but they interest they get on their savings is close to zero.
    As always the FED has created a huge, repeat and riskless arbitrage for Inside Big Money at the expense of ordinary families and small and medium businesses
    25 Feb 2013, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Whitehawk
    , contributor
    Comments (3129) | Send Message
     
    "Ordinary" investors need new markets. This is the most viable solution. The Fed and feds can fight such efforts, but for only so long. So let's get started.
    25 Feb 2013, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • Whitehawk
    , contributor
    Comments (3129) | Send Message
     
    Great day for those having been long Treasury futures!
    25 Feb 2013, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6045) | Send Message
     
    Its a great reminder of how Euroscares can send capital scrambling for dollar denominated assets. Perhaps this will bring some jawboning out of the ECB to stem the capital flows.
    25 Feb 2013, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Whitehawk
    , contributor
    Comments (3129) | Send Message
     
    Treasury strengthening happened (in tandem with gold) during the last U.S. tussle with the debt ceiling/budget sequester, Aug. 2011. And yes, the EU troubles were also in the background. During the 2008 crisis, Treasury zeros were one of the best trades. Look at the chart. Vertical. Yes, doesn't happen often, and I suspect this may be a shallow flight.
    25 Feb 2013, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6045) | Send Message
     
    So what do you think of Bersani? Are we going to get shades of Hollande? Tax and spend? Thus, more Italian debt, rich people leave, less tax revenue, bond rates begin to soar?

     

    http://bloom.bg/ZvStHG
    25 Feb 2013, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • Hendershott
    , contributor
    Comments (1583) | Send Message
     
    Did French rates soar? I think the Italian election is a non event.
    25 Feb 2013, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6045) | Send Message
     
    "I think the Italian election is a non event. "

     

    I was trying to determine that as well. However the fact that you think so has me worried it may not be. It could just be a bunch of emotion, and there would be an agenda to pass, so we may float back up from here. The Fed is still trying to grow its balance sheet, so it is creating a floor. The market is struggling as is indicated by the economic data which demonstrates malaise. Business is also afraid to invest because of the uncertainty over more taxation via expropriation taxes and regulations. I was originally thinking we might make it to 1600 on the S&P and 2.30 on the 10yr before the end of 2013, but now I am not so sure.
    26 Feb 2013, 06:30 AM Reply Like
  • Hendershott
    , contributor
    Comments (1583) | Send Message
     
    I gave up trying to call markets some tome ago. Italy or whatever, this market is trading poorly so I lightened up last week. so far it's been barely worth the effort.
    26 Feb 2013, 10:30 AM Reply Like
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