With low-cost oil flowing (relatively) cheap and fast in the States, ConocoPhillips (COP) plans...


With low-cost oil flowing (relatively) cheap and fast in the States, ConocoPhillips (COP) plans to reduce exposure to high-cost projects like Australian LNG and Canadian oil sands, says CEO Ryan Lance at the investor meeting. The move is in line with management's promise to improve margins over the next 5 years. (webcast) (slides)

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  • gammarama
    , contributor
    Comments (127) | Send Message
     
    COP is one of a very, very, VERY small group of companies that to me is a "walk on water" stock. Unless your timing is pretty bad, very few have lost money on this and the div is superb. My favorite multinational oil co, COP is absolute top drawer, period. They do it right. Study big oil, and gradually you will acquire enormous respect for what it takes to run a company of this size...especially when sources of oil are 5-6-7-10 years out, post discovery. How many of us can predict 5-10 years into the future with consistent success? And oh by the way, are ready to commit literally hundreds of millions to the process before the first dime comes back?

     

    Now, that having been said, the selection of a buy price comes into play. And 58 ain't bad, IMO. COP went ex-div Valentine's Day, so, there are 2.5 months before a new buyer becomes eligible for the next divvy. Because oil stock prices are loosely correlated to /CL, the crude contract, and /CL has dropped, most annoyingly, to almost the exact midpoint between its recent range of about 87 to 98 (it's now 92.6) and looks utterly indecisive as the whether it is going to bounce back up or drop...the question arises as to whether now, today, this minute, is a good time to buy COP. And I say that is not possible to answer.

     

    Me? I have GTC LO to buy COP about a buck lower, and that expresses what I am trying to say. COP hit 56.90 the other day and revisited 57.02 the day after, so I think that one could become a COP long a buck lower. Does that matter? If it does, it does.
    28 Feb 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Veritas1010
    , contributor
    Comments (3173) | Send Message
     
    Arguably YOC does matter.

     

    However, for the long term investor a dollar per share difference is not and should not be the guiding factor as to entree into a solid stock - COP certainly qualifies in this regard. Years from now $56-57-58 will look like highway robbery for this well directed corporation.
    1 Mar 2013, 05:55 PM Reply Like
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