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Despite today's closing hiccup, the S&P 500 is up in January and February this year. This...

Despite today's closing hiccup, the S&P 500 is up in January and February this year. This has occurred 26 times since 1945, notes Bob Pisani, and each time the S&P finished green for the year, with an average gain of 24%.
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Comments (15)
  • gonzokompadre
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    From his lips to God's ears...
    28 Feb 2013, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • uli35
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
     
    Can pigs fly?
    28 Feb 2013, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • muoio
    , contributor
    Comments (2957) | Send Message
     
    Apparently so
    1 Mar 2013, 06:50 AM Reply Like
  • Israel Shenker
    , contributor
    Comments (132) | Send Message
     
    No one ever saw the black swan until they looked somewhere they hadn't before. 26 (my favorite #) times are not statistically significant.
    28 Feb 2013, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • The Prof
    , contributor
    Comments (80) | Send Message
     
    Is 26 times only about one-third of the time? Why didn't Cheerleader Bob point that out?
    28 Feb 2013, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • hecky
    , contributor
    Comments (89) | Send Message
     
    It is over half the time. Seems statistically significant from here.
    28 Feb 2013, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Israel Shenker
    , contributor
    Comments (132) | Send Message
     
    Statistical significance requires minimally (in medicine for a potential life-saving medication or treatment) HUNDREDS of patients. The population in this study is too small to approach statistical significance.
    4 Mar 2013, 03:28 AM Reply Like
  • mawen
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    What's the rise from march 1st to dec 31? How many of those 26 years was the jan, feb most of the gain?
    28 Feb 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Ray - Kitchener
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    During those other 25 times, how many were juiced by the Fed? There is no comparison anymore when you have a rigged market. It's Ben and the bankers who have pushed this market higher. For how long - who knows. Whenever inflation rears its ugly head they change the method on how to compute CPI. It will get them in the end. I long for the days when you invested based upon fundamentals. Alas, it is what it is until it isn't.
    28 Feb 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • RJKRJK
    , contributor
    Comments (148) | Send Message
     
    Hecky, it appears that you sat out math class in elementary school if you think that 26 is over half of 69. And people wonder about America's lack of a competitive edge.
    28 Feb 2013, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • SiouxDonym
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Or.....26 is certainly more than half if it's the year 1996 where he is.
    1 Mar 2013, 03:08 AM Reply Like
  • ylin2000
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    If you have a 100% gain in a year and a 50% loss (-50) in the next, you have an average of 25% gain but it's actually 0%.
    1 Mar 2013, 06:44 AM Reply Like
  • faitschb
    , contributor
    Comments (46) | Send Message
     
    Of course it's not foolproof. The point has to do with the number of times the market was up at the end of february and higher at the end of the year. That's 100% which statistically is significant, of course. Doesn't guarantee it will happen again, but history is likely to repeat.
    1 Mar 2013, 06:50 AM Reply Like
  • medzjohn
    , contributor
    Comments (268) | Send Message
     
    The 50% odds on a single coin flip never change, no matter how many times it's been flipped before.
    1 Mar 2013, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Israel Shenker
    , contributor
    Comments (132) | Send Message
     
    But then again the coin may be rigged.
    4 Mar 2013, 03:26 AM Reply Like
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