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Longtime bulls on gold, Commerzbank analysts turn bearish, noting holdings of gold ETFs have...

Longtime bulls on gold, Commerzbank analysts turn bearish, noting holdings of gold ETFs have dropped below 2.5K tons for the first time 5 months. GLD - far larger and the playground of institutional players - has seen a significantly higher amount of outflows on a percentage basis than the retail favorite IAU. Another measure of small-fry sentiment, U.S. mint sales remain brisk.
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Comments (16)
  • youngman442002
    , contributor
    Comments (5129) | Send Message
     
    I think the "smart money" is getting out of paper gold and silver...and buying the real stuff.....real metal...in time we will see most of our metal going east.....and we will be holding paper..just paper gold and silver...
    6 Mar 2013, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • Martzee
    , contributor
    Comments (137) | Send Message
     
    This is nonsense. ETFs such as GLD holds physical equivalent in their vaults. Unless they fraudulently sell it there is no way you end up holding with paper just because the physical gold moves elsewhere. As long as it stays in GLD vaults, it still makes sense investing in ETFs (although you cannot redeem it for gold).
    6 Mar 2013, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • ddearborn
    , contributor
    Comments (139) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm

     

    Actually I think you will find that the fine print in the majority of ETF's allows those funds to pay out in cash. And further you will find that there is in fact no insurance protecting the assets in the funds. And the physical gold held by the fund itself unless explicity stated is unallocated and therefore the investor does not in fact "own" any gold. What he "owns" is a share in a fund whose primary asset is gold. Therefore it does not require fraud on the part of the fund to fail to provide investors with physical gold.

     

    Take a good long hard look at the fine print in whatever fund you are investing in. As youngman442002 correctly stated the flight is NOT out of gold and silver it is a flight away from gold and silver BACKED INVESTMENT VEHICLES. You would be better served to buy the miners if you cannot take physical possession of the metal.
    7 Mar 2013, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • GOLDundercover
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Reference your comment about buying miners, you may want to see what cash costs are for miners right now (6 Mar 2013), straight from the lips of Miranda Gold Corp (TSX-V: MAD.V) CEO Ken Cunningham during an interview by Kitco.
    See the video (at 3m55s) at: http://bit.ly/ZvYiUO

     

    Explains why miners are hitting rock bottom lately.
    http://bit.ly/16dfggb

     

    But it may well be a buying point as pointed out by contrarian, well-known James Turk at http://bit.ly/ZvYgMJ

     

    But with gold prices going sideways, seems miners will continue to feel the heat for a while.
    8 Mar 2013, 03:28 AM Reply Like
  • Christopher F. Davis
    , contributor
    Comments (1448) | Send Message
     
    I think its great that NOW everyone turns bearish...Ill take the blood in the streets to buy thank you.
    6 Mar 2013, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • Martzee
    , contributor
    Comments (137) | Send Message
     
    Exactly. I am buying in small lots as the bears are freaking out. IF GLD breaks 150-ish support, it may go as low as 140 a share where I will be buying more shares again.
    6 Mar 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • jbassbia
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    Take a look at Eric Sprott's interview on the manipulation of the gold price - article at http://bit.ly/MWC1hH
    6 Mar 2013, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • JasonNYC
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    Sprott interview is interesting--thanks. Still, I don't understand the gold market. As Sprott points, India and China bought more gold than was produced. With China slowing and controls in purchases by individuals in India, what are the prospects of gold going forward?
    7 Mar 2013, 12:09 AM Reply Like
  • William Rilling
    , contributor
    Comments (141) | Send Message
     
    Christoper: I't only an individual speaking but from all I can see I would wait some. I hd a lot of PHYS and CEF, now down to only $30,000 in CEF and waiting on some too long but still did well.

     

    Do as you will but I held a combo of around $300K for over 3 years waiting to get back to the highs of about about 4 years ago. In the meantime we had much better growth elsewhere. Problem now is I don't know where to put it. Looking at more small caps here, large caps foreign and emerging markets. All a little scary.

     

    Anyone's thoughts are welcomed! I have had some great REIT's.
    6 Mar 2013, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • coindog
    , contributor
    Comments (676) | Send Message
     
    I always keep some in physical gold & silver. right now I can't figure the markets so I'm mostly in cash. not long term but for a couple months or until I see what's what. sometimes the sidelines is where to be.
    6 Mar 2013, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Chris Butler_
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    So gold "analysts" at Commerzbank are now bearish because...bearish investors got out of the security they are ostensibly analyzing? Smells like (a) a late call, and (b) a self-referencing feedback loop. Both are characteristics of a *lack of* analysis. Even excel would call this an error. Analysis of a security based on what has already transpired is worth almost nothing. If the outflow trend is to continue, lets hear the rationale behind that take. Although I am also a little bearish, or at least cautious, of the shiney yellow metal, it seems like this "short gold" trade is getting crowded. Large futures players are as short as they've ever been. The dollar move up is technically overbought. A reversing of the latter forces the hands of the former. Until then, it looks like a bullish move in SPY is pulling demand from GLD, as if its some kind of logical impossibility to be bullish or bearish both at the same time.
    6 Mar 2013, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • WIC 2000
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Chris Butler is one astute person.....I am just a poor architect trying to find a way to protect my assets against what we all know is coming. I see nothing changing in the basic underlying fundamentals that support the ownership of precious metals(real or paper). About five trillion dollars ago, we were all panicky about hedging against inflation. How has that situation changed?

     

    With what has happened in the last four years and getting worse every month....We should be scared to death. I cannot see any reason to dump PM...Early or not , it is a good time to "metal up". When the dollar balloon water breaks, it is too late to go looking for a plug. Buy gold...A billion Chinese can't be wrong.
    6 Mar 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Slim_Chance
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    I am hedging with a modest amount of GLL short term to cover any downside and holding my GLD. This seems to be the best way to play it if you are an ETF investor and believe short term outlook is sideways or down. If there is a quick turnaround, will need to sell GLL to limit losses on upside. I would like to know if others see this as a good strategy. If not, what are alternatives short of following the herd and dumping GLD? I can't see a significant or extended drop in GLD unless Bernanke's printing presses break down.
    7 Mar 2013, 12:38 AM Reply Like
  • slmcolliers
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    I think a banks telling you to sell gold is suspect from the start anyway. It's like Goldman saying sell.... While they stand underneath the market and pick up everything you sell. In the end there will be one thing and one only that rights the ship and brings things back into balance. It's the only thing that cannot be printed, hypothecated or fabricated. The western world holds reserves at an insane book value of $45 an ounce. The other half of the world is marking gold to market. Btw, the other half is not drowning in debt. In the end game, it will be gold that balances the balance sheets of the worlds impossible debts as it will eventually be marked to market at a much higher price. The Russians, Chinese, Koreans, etc... Know this and are doing what you all should be doing, loading up on dips and corrections. They are and are laughing all the way to the bank.

     

    Scott
    7 Mar 2013, 12:03 AM Reply Like
  • William Rilling
    , contributor
    Comments (141) | Send Message
     
    Just had conversation with trust officer who represents Raymond James yesterday regarding Gold and Silver. They are not positive about either metal, but advised me that as I cut our Gold positions dramatically over the last 6 months I could always buy some of them back, but they advised that if I did it should probably be SLV, not mining entities. Not sure what I will do, but thought I would share. I should point out that we are not as concerned about growth as we are income.
    7 Mar 2013, 07:19 AM Reply Like
  • youngman442002
    , contributor
    Comments (5129) | Send Message
     
    Brokers hate metals because they cannot make money on it....they canĀ“t sell you their info with a monetary system....gold....they would rather sell you a piece of paper that they can "advice" you on....
    7 Mar 2013, 03:11 PM Reply Like
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