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"It's a technical mess all over the world," according to chart expert Louise Yamada. She says...

"It's a technical mess all over the world," according to chart expert Louise Yamada. She says virtually all the global markets, with the exception of Japan, Thailand, Indonesia and "a few U.S. markets," have triggered long-term sell signals. Her advice: "Rallies would be best used to lighten some positions."
Comments (24)
  • profitTaker
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    'Chart Expert' - 2 words that should not be used in tandem!
    16 Aug 2011, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • Ripit
    , contributor
    Comments (63) | Send Message
     
    Ignorance is bliss.
    16 Aug 2011, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • The Enterprising Value Inve...
    , contributor
    Comments (535) | Send Message
     
    technical analysis - the study of something that works until it doesn't

     

    Every investor worth their salt uses fundamental analysis because it accurately represents the business underlying that piece of paper you are buying.
    16 Aug 2011, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • Ripit
    , contributor
    Comments (63) | Send Message
     
    So you are saying emotion, psychology, greed and fear never have anything to do with the market. That is great for you. You aren't buying a piece of paper either. You are buying a company. Humans work at the company. Who will lie, cheat and steal to get ahead. Sure, I would definitely believe all those fundamental reports you are reading. Make sure their "pipelines" aren't filled with excrement.
    16 Aug 2011, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • Stone Fox Capital
    , contributor
    Comments (6173) | Send Message
     
    Like an economist, it always depends. Just 2 weeks ago, 'Chart Expert' Carter Worth predicted that the market would higher. Instead we all know what happened. Now he predicts a sideways market. Either we are going to collapse or the market will be much higher. Valuations are pathetically cheap so its going to take the EU to blow up to keep the market down at these levels.
    16 Aug 2011, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • kblack4
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    So, people are pieces of shit and no company is worth what it reports. I like it!
    16 Aug 2011, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • The Enterprising Value Inve...
    , contributor
    Comments (535) | Send Message
     
    No offense, but don't send me PMs about whether I 'know' stuff or not. I may be 24, but I am far more mature than you are....

     

    It is also too bad that your post proved my point by itself. I would agree that people are irrational. In fact, this is what Ben Graham suggested in his book, 'Security Analysis.' People are irrational and sometimes sell stocks that are irrationally priced based on likely CFs, presenting an opportunity to own that company. One cannot be 100% right on predicting these CFs, but if one applies a margin of safety on his assumptions (thus allowing for appreciation even in the worst of circumstances) you will likely make money.

     

    And unfortunately you will never disprove my point. Look at a large sampling of the most successful money managers. They all use extensive fundamental analysis. Whereas technicians (this seems to include yourself) seemed relegated to Seeking Alpha with their "predictions."

     

    At the end of the day, I will trust the methodology of those like Graham and Buffett rather than that of 'Ripit.'
    16 Aug 2011, 10:39 PM Reply Like
  • Windsun33
    , contributor
    Comments (4277) | Send Message
     
    This market right now is pretty much ruled by fear, but fear eventually wears off. You can only stoke adrenaline for so long. She may be right, but her track record is far from 100% (nobody's is).
    16 Aug 2011, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • bkpark
    , contributor
    Comments (325) | Send Message
     
    It's a bit more complicated than that. I've read Security Analysis and I've read Technical Analysis of Financial Markets, and here's the thing: neither proponents of either method claim to be right all the time (or even most of the time). Technical analysis isn't something that can be nailed down to a flawless quantitative model, and fundamental analysis is far less fundamental than it first appears (book value counts for nothing; while earnings do appear to count, is a company with EPS ratio of 10 cheap? Ratio of 20? These numbers seem at best arbitrary).

     

    The best I can gather is this: both technical traders and fundamental investors can be wrong; it's only a matter of who's wrong more often.

     

    I think I do have a soft spot for technical analysis: it starts with the assumption that the Market is usually right (whereas the thesis of a fundamental investor is that Mr. Market can be wrong; very troubling if you put any stock into EMH).
    16 Aug 2011, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • Ripit
    , contributor
    Comments (63) | Send Message
     
    You keep following other people. Good idea "24". I don't have to follow other people. I make my own decisions. You probably should follow me. You may learn something.

     

    Who said I was purely a technician. I never said I don't find fundamentals useful. That would be silly. About as silly as saying technicals are useless.

     

    By the way, I work at a fund company, one of the largest in the world. Guess what they have? A whole team of technicians. I guess since they only manage over 1 trillion dollars they must not know what they are doing.

     

    Have your mommy tuck you in now. Night night.
    17 Aug 2011, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • Ripit
    , contributor
    Comments (63) | Send Message
     
    As far as I can tell Carter Worth spends more time on his hair than technical analysis. He is just another market evangelist in my opinion. Talks just to talk.
    17 Aug 2011, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • Ripit
    , contributor
    Comments (63) | Send Message
     
    One more thing. I have been long gold since 2002. I bought it based on technicals only. I still own it. Never got out of it. I bought it under 300 and sold some at 1800.

     

    You were 15 when I bought gold. Come on, you are going to teach me anything.

     

    Seriously, don't close yourself in. Keep an open mind. There are many ways to make money in the market. Fundamentals are not the only way. You know that. Just believe it and you will do better for yourself.
    17 Aug 2011, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • Windsun33
    , contributor
    Comments (4277) | Send Message
     
    " since they only manage over 1 trillion dollars they must not know what they are doing..."

     

    Size does not equal competence nor expertise - TBTF proved that. Be careful about using that idea as a justification for anything.

     

    The US government could be called the largest financial institution in the world, but few would call it competent :P
    18 Aug 2011, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • Ripit
    , contributor
    Comments (63) | Send Message
     
    I know that. I just figured this kid would buy it. You think SAC uses technical analysis? Tudor? I know they do. SAC must be doing something right since there fees are so high and Steves house is so big.
    19 Aug 2011, 06:37 AM Reply Like
  • EMS
    , contributor
    Comments (578) | Send Message
     
    This lady knows what she is talking about. I, for one, would heed her warnings folks.
    16 Aug 2011, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Windsun33
    , contributor
    Comments (4277) | Send Message
     
    Not always - she also predicted in 2008 Dow 4000 and S&P 400. Charts can give a general idea of the direction, but they are past-looking, and cannot predict future events that will affect the market. Any kind of news that is perceived to be good or bad for the markets can upset charts quite easily.
    16 Aug 2011, 10:50 PM Reply Like
  • Barry Crocker
    , contributor
    Comments (454) | Send Message
     
    When did she predict that Windy. Because if it was when the DOW has only just started heading South I'd call her a genius : )
    16 Aug 2011, 11:39 PM Reply Like
  • Windsun33
    , contributor
    Comments (4277) | Send Message
     
    At the time she made that prediciton, all anyone had to do was look out the window to see that the economy was tanking badly. At least in that particular case, her charts were more confirmation of what had already happened than prediction.
    17 Aug 2011, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • Factation
    , contributor
    Comments (34) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Louise. Your comments are always worthwhile. I remember you from, Smith Barney. Your technical work was always excellent!
    16 Aug 2011, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • SlingWing9
    , contributor
    Comments (486) | Send Message
     
    Well then, let's hear it for my favorite shorts - FAZ, TZA
    16 Aug 2011, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • JohnLocke
    , contributor
    Comments (381) | Send Message
     
    So, could it be that the charts are all screwed up not by the normal ebbs and flows of a sane market but simply by the battling algorithms of the HFT / Front running systems utilized by the various trading houses worldwide?

     

    The computers are in charge and the only money being made are tenths of cents thousands of times a second.

     

    Any bets that the trade houses report great profits while their customers take the haircuts?
    16 Aug 2011, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • mdb666
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
     
    To disregard charts entirely wouldn't make sense. To use technical analysis that goes back twenty years seems pretty ridiculous as times have changed...but for the last few years it proves very helpful. I think we all can agree that once we get close to 1250 on the S&P, there is going to be a nice pullback as 1227-1250 has turned into huge resistance....it will drop regardless of what is happening fundamentally.
    Having said all of that, I do agree that all methods have their flaws. I had to laugh when Apple dropped below 325...all technical geeks claimed Apple was in a bear market. "Apple is done!" "You can forget about buying Apple for months, if not years".....well, two days later it was above 325 and a week or so later was scraping 400.
    16 Aug 2011, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • Windsun33
    , contributor
    Comments (4277) | Send Message
     
    Charts, like most other indicators, can be a tool. But it should never be your only tool. "To a man with only a hammer, everything looks like a nail".
    17 Aug 2011, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • Ripit
    , contributor
    Comments (63) | Send Message
     
    Wise words
    17 Aug 2011, 07:47 PM Reply Like
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