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Beware the dead-cat bounce. We've had a good move off last week's lows, but most of the buying...

Beware the dead-cat bounce. We've had a good move off last week's lows, but most of the buying has been very stock specific, based on earnings or "fire-sale" valuation upgrades without much carryover into respective sectors. Narrow moves higher without broad, sector-wide participation are classic signs of a bear market rally.
Comments (20)
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4108) | Send Message
     
    This assessment is mostly wrong.
    17 Aug 2011, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • nightfly
    , contributor
    Comments (1017) | Send Message
     
    Your comment shows how little you know. That "narrowness" is a classic sign of a week trend. Ignore it at your peril.
    17 Aug 2011, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4108) | Send Message
     
    The claim it was narrow is wrong.
    17 Aug 2011, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • EMS
    , contributor
    Comments (582) | Send Message
     
    The 'Sheeple' will not watch out, and they will, buy a lot of stuff and they will lose. Buy some put protection and some GDXJ for further protection, people.
    17 Aug 2011, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3391) | Send Message
     
    Or just buying dividend paying companies who have plenty of cash, and the investor has a big time frame ahead of them.
    17 Aug 2011, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • The Enterprising Value Inve...
    , contributor
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    couldnt have said it better
    17 Aug 2011, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • Pragmatic Bear
    , contributor
    Comments (89) | Send Message
     
    This guy has the right idea
    17 Aug 2011, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • That_Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    I think this is right on and agree with EMS's prediction. My analogy is the bars on fire. Half the people in the bar are arguing why the bars on fire...and its on fire. The other half are listening to the loud speaker saying that there is no fire.....and its on fire.

     

    Issues of the debt nature like the magnitude that we are in leave very few options but further debt. In my opinion, this leaves tangible assets at the effect of inflation. You see how these cash rich companies are going after useful patents....thats their gold.

     

    Market will dip. They will print again and again till we find the bottom.

     

    You ever seen a hockey stick.....? I think that's the way the FED is thinking about getting out of financial debt obligations is, we can pay our obligations if dollars are worth-less. Then they point fingers, watch the suckers argue, move their assets offshore to other currencies and the claim ignorance.

     

    My question is what happens after the initial fear? Will the market set new highs un-inflated dollar wise? I think so. But at that point, how many dollars will it take to buy what 5$ buys today.....thats my question.
    What do you all think?
    17 Aug 2011, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • bonehead69
    , contributor
    Comments (212) | Send Message
     
    Before any of that happens, the other countries will pull out of treasuries because the dollar is becoming worthless. China is giving us advice and lip-service already. Their currencies are all strengthening against the pathetic dollar and killing their economies; even the Yuan now! As I type, Japan is getting killed because of the strengthening Yen they can't stop and the Swiss are going to take drastic measures to try to stop their Franc from going ballistic. As a result, the dollar will crash, treasuries will go bust, interest rates will shoot through the roof and its over... I don't know what happens then?
    17 Aug 2011, 11:40 PM Reply Like
  • Stuart W
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Some of these things have truth in a longer term sense because there is a lot of interia in these valuations. For instance, X holds a ton of Treasuries, so much in fact, that they dare not unload too much at a time, lest they shoot themselves in the foot. They then must sell them off slowly. Same with gold in some cases. Just how fast could GLD unload bullion to satisfy redemption?
    Supporting that inertia on the upside is the fact that traders will remain in a market they suspect is overvalued, as long as they're making money. When the music stops, they move very quickly.
    Bottom line is, while there are (and probably will continue to be) dramatic moves, the real money is made, as always, in spotting a trend early.
    18 Aug 2011, 02:06 AM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4108) | Send Message
     
    SUCR ;P
    17 Aug 2011, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • Dick Mellon
    , contributor
    Comments (56) | Send Message
     
    Typical Seeking Alpha wanting us to sell so they can buy it @ a lower price, your not fooling anyone you greedy pigs!
    17 Aug 2011, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • Wyatt Junker
    , contributor
    Comments (4503) | Send Message
     
    Anybody ever see a dead squirrel bounce? They dry up on the asphalt and then flatten out. You can fling 'em like a frisbee. No bounce. But they skip pretty well.

     

    I like clich├ęs. They're pretty.
    17 Aug 2011, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • JohnLocke
    , contributor
    Comments (381) | Send Message
     
    Why will my portfolio lose money but the trading houses will make record profits?

     

    Why did the market drop 500+ points THE DAY BEFORE Standard and Poors reported the US Credit downgrade.

     

    Those that sold on insider information are the the only ones that are going to make money, the money they made is yours..

     

    For somebody to win somebody has got to lose...

     

    17 Aug 2011, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4108) | Send Message
     
    The ones selling in panic usually pay the price for the traders. Long-term it is not correct what you write - companies also pay divi and buy back shares.

     

    Wall street often reacts on "rumors" more than on the actual news. I bought stock when the market fell and now the average price of my portfolio with respect to the S&P level is 100 points reduced! I have more money in stocks though.
    17 Aug 2011, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4029) | Send Message
     
    Why is my portfolio up over 26% and I havn't done anything other than add to existing positions since August of 2009? I must be insider buying, same dates, monthly. It's a conspiracy! I must work for the Goldman Sachs.
    17 Aug 2011, 10:50 PM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    So we are downgraded by S&P and all of sudden the market is worth less? This downgrade was a nit but emotions take over and people get all shook up.

     

    Either we were overvalued before the downgrade or we are just going through a nervous Nelly period.

     

    The most overvalued security has to be US Treasuries and people are diving in. That is herd mentality and that usually ends badly. Only a matter of time. The gap between UST's and dividend paying stocks is at historical highs...............claim I heard on TV.
    18 Aug 2011, 01:47 AM Reply Like
  • littleoak
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    listen guys i am a an irish invester that has an investment bond with about 80K basically 90% of all we own tied into an investment bond with an investment house in the uk called st james place.The whole thing is in about 5"managed funds" all in equities , I to took a massive hit in 2008 and had managed to claw a fair bit back but am really scared of loosing bigtime again while i do nothing if i cash out i get hit with an early surrender charge to boot.Please give me some sensible neutral advice.Very green investoe
    18 Aug 2011, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4029) | Send Message
     
    Get an investment advisor if you can't figure it out on your own.
    18 Aug 2011, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    Good advice by John...........perhaps see an accountant that can help you calculate the surrender charge and the tax implications and probably will not be trying to sell you a new investment.

     

    Keep in mind that if the surrender charge is small but your risk is large you need to lower your risk as you could lose a lot of the investment to the point it makes the surrender charge look small. If you don't know your risk then you need to find someone who will help you and will look out for your interests first and not their own. Good luck with that.

     

    I NEVER pay those kinds of fees. They are for money managers that are not confident they can keep clients through performance.
    18 Aug 2011, 09:21 PM Reply Like
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