Seeking Alpha

More on Apple: The ever-bullish Brian White reports his Apple Monitor, which tracks the sales of...

More on Apple: The ever-bullish Brian White reports his Apple Monitor, which tracks the sales of component suppliers that depend heavily on Apple (AAPL -1.1%), saw a 31% M/M drop in February, its worst performance on record for the month. Foxconn parent Hon Hai saw a 25% M/M drop. Baird's William Power, meanwhile, says his firm's semiconductor checks indicate iPhone/iPad orders are in-line with his estimates, but below consensus. White maintains an $888 PT, and Power a $465 PT.
From other sites
Comments (20)
  • tigersam
    , contributor
    Comments (1711) | Send Message
     
    Only thing will save this stock is good earnings. If earnings are bad in April stock will go down further. Now I am loosing my shirt, pant and may be underwear after earnings.
    11 Mar 2013, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • Thomas903
    , contributor
    Comments (121) | Send Message
     
    This story should have been titled "Supply chain signals Apple refreshing several products for spring launch." It is well known that the products mentioned in the article (monitor, iPhone, iPad) are being refreshed over the next 1-3 months:

     

    - Time for monitor refresh: http://bit.ly/WhYcS0

     

    - iPad 5 to hit the market soon: http://bit.ly/YTCx2m

     

    - iPhone 5s production by Foxconn rumored to have begun: http://bit.ly/WhYbgR

     

    The analysts are either out of touch or are reporting old news simply to attract attention to themselves and their companies.
    11 Mar 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • zd2002
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Have we gone through this before? Tim Cook did warn that a single look into the supply chain means very little in the overall picture. He said on the last quarterly call that he easily spend a lifetime commenting on each of those rumors.

     

    With that said, the stock needs a catalyst now. The company has been quiet since the disastrous PR after Q1 earning. Silence is treated as complacent. They need a shock and awe to jolt the stock from near-death.
    11 Mar 2013, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • pagreen1966
    , contributor
    Comments (599) | Send Message
     
    BOD meeting this week. Hopefully dividend increase and share buyback increase announcement soon!!
    11 Mar 2013, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • u01bsb0
    , contributor
    Comments (641) | Send Message
     
    zd - yea I think Cook is trying to diversify their supply chain heavily so that if any one supplier has problems it won't have much effect on overall performance.
    11 Mar 2013, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • doc47
    , contributor
    Comments (1092) | Send Message
     
    Again, I wonder when/if Cook will throw a bone (or two) to the stockholders. He certainly has some bones left and we're hungry!
    11 Mar 2013, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • cshoxie
    , contributor
    Comments (280) | Send Message
     
    Brian White doesn't say what century he expects AAPL to be at $888. I suspect William Power's $465 to be closer to the mark for this year.
    11 Mar 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • wiesje
    , contributor
    Comments (2437) | Send Message
     
    the stock took on some huge damage, it needs time to heal, it's smack in the buying zone if one considers that the break out 3 years ago took the stock from 200 to 700, a fifty % pull-back takes the stock to 450, you got to allow for up to 10% over-swing factor, when a stock drops as much and as quickly as this one.
    conclusion we are there: the downside objective has been reached
    425 looks good to me.
    now let's see if the stock can form a base.
    Long Apple , adding on dips and feel very good holding the stock.
    the funds reduced big time, a lot of tired longs liquidated , let's hope some of the mad money men are getting out too, more disenchanted longs abandoning the stock.
    is normal, just be patient the next leg up will be healthier, let's hope none of the fast money returns and we can have a nice gradual uptrend taking the stock back to 500 by the second half of the year and 600 next year.
    the stock is cleaning itself, that's what we want.
    looking good, have some faith in the Board, they are not stupid people , they got plenty in the pipe-line and they own the best "think-tank'' of all the tech companies, they'll come back with vengeance, if you own Samsung and GoogLe shares now is the time to switch to Apple. anyway that's how i see it.
    11 Mar 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • aardvark3
    , contributor
    Comments (458) | Send Message
     
    I think you have it in a nutshell, Wiesje.
    11 Mar 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • davioud
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    do not understand why apple management does not want a bigger screen that can help sales . Tons of people are asking for it. Even the new BB Z 10 has it. Nokia has it , customers want it. I am selling all the remaining apple today and will forget about this company
    11 Mar 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • BRASIL
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    I think, if one owns a single device, the larger screen is good. I disagree that tons of people are asking for it because of IPhone 5 and the 4s sales numbers. While a gal can tuck a big phone in her purse, where does a man keep it? During the colder months I suppose a jacket pocket would do but, otherwise, he just has to carry it wherever he goes....and if it is an Apple product....well I hear that it wouldn't be too safe. If I rode the "EL" in Chicago I would be safer with one of the android products..... nobody seems to want to steal those...
    11 Mar 2013, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • John1138
    , contributor
    Comments (161) | Send Message
     
    They already provided a bigger screen. The LTE iPad mioni and with no huge voice contract cost to boot. So it's cheaper to own than some phablet with a cell contract for voice you won't use since holding some giant slab to your ear is beyond awkward.
    11 Mar 2013, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • John1138
    , contributor
    Comments (161) | Send Message
     
    True: the year old iPhone 4s outsold the SIII, the newer iPhone 5 DOUBLED the SIII's sales.

     

    People want a "bigger" Apple cell device? get an iPad mini with LTE: cheaper service charges since you're not paying for a voice plan you'll rarely or never use.
    11 Mar 2013, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • richbar
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    Brian White has no clue. Earnings are in a long term decline. April's release should confirm this. I expect the trend to continue for a few years until stability is reached in the mid $30s/share, down around 20% from current levels. Revenues should be in the low $200 billions at that point, with earnings/revenues in the high teens, down from the current mid 20%s. The stock is currently undervalued but will go down further on a declining earnings trend.
    11 Mar 2013, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • wiesje
    , contributor
    Comments (2437) | Send Message
     
    everything you are saying "may" well be correct, but as you so clearly state yourself, you "expect" this trend to continue.
    but even so , i "predict" that if you were to be correct that al least your last sentence is highly questionable, because i strongly feel that if earnings per share in Apple were to decline it will finally get compensated by a more just p/e, i for one believe that Apple's low p/e is because there is little faith in Apple being able to continue to perform at the high margins it is obtaining at present.
    so i would look at things quite differently, i really feel Apple has hit the bottom for the coming years ( give or take 50 bucks) , because if earnings per share will decline than the p/e multiple will improve.
    Apple is being punished for 2 reasons, one the large amount of cash and 2 the enormous amount of profits the company is generating, this is the most ridiculous scenario one can imagine, these are 2 luxury problems that any company on this globe would like to have, but it is because that the world has never witnessed this before that out of fear, caution the unknown, call it what you want that Apple from being everybody's darling share has turned into everybody's big bear share. well that's fine by me, because i for one like to buy it and i feel damn good buying it here knowing the company is sitting on 135 bio cash and is adding every year 40 to 60 bio to that number. in one year down the road if Apple is still trading at a 400 bio mkt cap, half of that is cash.
    the private equity companies will be knocking at Apple's door to take it private, but it's not going to happen the stock will be above 500 on it's way to 600.
    i follow yr comments though and you did call the stock correctly.
    well done.
    11 Mar 2013, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • John1138
    , contributor
    Comments (161) | Send Message
     
    The "trend" is still up so predicting a decline is, as they say, a premature rumor. Last quarter was another record so "long term decline"? Not in the realworld.
    11 Mar 2013, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • bobhartin
    , contributor
    Comments (72) | Send Message
     
    Weisje has "nailed it."

     

    Every time I worry about the recent drop in market, I ask the same question: "If I sold AAPL, what could replace it?" The answer is axiomatic. Having been a user since the '80s, I don't see anything on the market that I would want to replace my Apple devices, all of which are a source of pride and total satisfaction.

     

    Staying long with 7 digits of AAPL stock holdings.
    11 Mar 2013, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • Bill Maurer
    , contributor
    Comments (4970) | Send Message
     
    If it is 31% drop in total numbers, the fact that the month is 3 days shorter doesn't exactly help...
    11 Mar 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • RaulReina
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    Some fresh news now said that Foxconn and TSMC are adding 5,000 jobs each in anticipation to higher demand for its services(Apple).

     

    http://bit.ly/ZBOgnx

     

    Who is right? White or Reuters?
    Tim Cook already warned everyone in January about the lack of accuracy of these "chain supply rumors" because the Apple's complexity supply chain. But Analysts don't want to listen..
    11 Mar 2013, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • kennetj
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
     
    Remember when appl was falling like a rock way down to ~600 and many were panicking while others were buying a bargain? I mentioned that little gap way down about 425 - 443 that would have to be filled. Well, it has been. So, pull your pants up and begin nibbling, but just small bites for now. It may have to test a bottom more than once.
    12 Mar 2013, 09:52 AM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Tools
Find the right ETFs for your portfolio:
Seeking Alpha's new ETF Hub
ETF Investment Guide:
Table of Contents | One Page Summary
Read about different ETF Asset Classes:
ETF Selector