Seeking Alpha

Surging output from shale oil fields likely will lift U.S. crude output to 7.5M bbl/day by...

Surging output from shale oil fields likely will lift U.S. crude output to 7.5M bbl/day by October, topping net imports for the first time since 1996, the EIA says in its Short-Term Energy Outlook. U.S. demand last year fell 400K bbl/day to a 16-year low 18.55M, and EIA expects demand in 2013-14 to barely inch higher, as aggressive conservation and substitution measures have pushed consumption onto a new trajectory.
Comments (4)
  • As a rule all these prognosises are wrong
    12 Mar 2013, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • The shale revolution has added two million barrels a day of US crude production in the last two years, nobody predicted that.
    12 Mar 2013, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • This is almost certainly understated - at least on the production side.

     

    There's been more than 1 Mbbl/day/year increase in production for two years now, and that shows no sign of slowing. The idea that it would slow to only a 350,000 bbl/day over the next 7 months, without giving any reason why it might slow... should be taken with a grain of salt - especially given the EIA's track record. I would be surprised if the actual production growth is less than 600,000 bbl/d by the end of October.

     

    As for demand, the EIA has a reasonably good case. There will continue to be some demand switching from heating oil and fuel oil to natural gas, while gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel for trucking will see very gradual rebounds... it will probably be close to a wash overall. If a deal is reached on the budget that rescinds the sequester, then growth in gasoline demand may out-pace the demand destruction of switching from distillates to NG, but in this political environment that's a coin toss at best.
    13 Mar 2013, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • The shale revolution rolls on. Neither party can screw it up. Individual states can shoot themselves in the foot. The good thing this administration did was to keep the EPA out of it and leave the regulation to the individual states.
    13 Mar 2013, 05:15 PM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)