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If history is a guide, the markets may be due for a pullback, according to S&P Capital's Sam...

If history is a guide, the markets may be due for a pullback, according to S&P Capital's Sam Stovall. Since World War II, Stovall says the median advance once the S&P hits its previous high after recovering from a bear market has been just 3%. But despite the ominous warning, there still may be some places to ride it all out. JPMorgan's chief U.S. equities strategist Tom Lee recently came up with 15 stocks that outperformed the S&P 500 in eight of the last 11 pullbacks since 2009: CAG, IBM, DIS, GPC, MMM, FISV, PAYX, PPG, SYY, SIAL, UNP, UTX, PX, L, and XRAY.
Comments (28)
  • history is not a guide.
    15 Mar 2013, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • All of the analysts are right some of the time and all the analysts are wrong some of the time but none of the analysts are right all of the time.
    16 Mar 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • IBM at its all time high? I'll wait till in the 90 's.
    15 Mar 2013, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • Actually $ 190's.
    15 Mar 2013, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • When the pull back occurs I'll be buying financial companies by the truckload. Banks and Basic materiels are the things to buy in a pullback.
    15 Mar 2013, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • i swear i should be a prognosticator....... it always begins with "we are due for a ............."
    15 Mar 2013, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • i do not hear him saying " i am short""
    15 Mar 2013, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • So, we do the May sell-off again? Good to know.
    15 Mar 2013, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • Btw, inflation corrected we are still 16% under the last high. 16%! They should invent the inflation adjusted S&P500.
    15 Mar 2013, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • By the time the index is chased another 16%, what will the new adjusted high be?
    15 Mar 2013, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • I will hold my IBM shares through any bear market, or correction, as I have done since 1976.... Long term investors do not need to watch every move of the market.
    15 Mar 2013, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • Tell that to Kodak, General Motors, United Airlines, Bethlehem Steel, AIG, Xerox, Fannie and Freddie long term investors.
    16 Mar 2013, 07:25 AM Reply Like
  • He didn't say stop watching the company's competitive position, risks, financial situation (notably pensions), etc.; investors should spend time on these things rather than worrying about which companies outperform during the inevitable market pullbacks that happen every few months. Most people do exactly the opposite...
    16 Mar 2013, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Although I'm tending to be a contrarian lately, don't you find it a little unnerving that now people are trying to come up with excuses like "markets not at their INFLATION adjusted all time highs"? Who cares markets are still at their highs, RSI's through the roof, even celebrities are espousing their trading ideas? Are we all insane scalp if you want but be very aware of where we are.


    Note I've indicated on my stocktalks im not even in the market all my positions are closed (though I had my puts closed today that I put on yesterday) so I have no dog in the coming fight.


    Note #2 yes the volume at the close looks to me like a up day monday but after that..................
    15 Mar 2013, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • If you've closed all your positions, you do in fact have a dog in the race. That dog's name is Opportunity Cost. How's that money market rate look to you?
    16 Mar 2013, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • oh give me a know as well as I do no one ever took a loss by taking a profit and its better to be out early than out late. Well I took my profits and I'm out early....what are you? I have one day of money market rate under my belt and you have a down day.....sounds like
    I'm 1-0 and ur 0-1


    certainly I'm not going to take my advice from someone who's only been around since October...have you even actually seen the market go down or is that beyond your experience level?
    16 Mar 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • "Well I took my profits and I'm out early....what are you?"


    I'm continuing to own great companies at reasonable valuation, and watching intrinsic value increase at a steady rate with time; enjoy that 1-0 record while it lasts (considering you're in your early 30's, you've got more than 10,000 days to go, assuming that money's for retirement)...
    16 Mar 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • History needs to be followed to avoid making similar mistakes.But, they still occur..


    Oh well,but, here is my 20 bucks.( actually 2 cents adjusted for the dollar's true value)


    Everyone and there mom's are waiting for the sure pullback to buy the dip. Most have the cliche on the tip of there tongue.. Sell in May. I've been a disciple of that tout and it's served me well for decades.


    However, in 2013 as now,I don't see too many examples in market history that are similar to where we are.. For millions we are still in a severe recession and many describe the period since 2007 as a depression.What ever you call it the US economy is finally climbing out.This recession was so powerful it's taken five years to see daylight and the market finally has rebounded to 2007 levels.


    It's true that today's DOW in value isn't equal to 2007s. I see a 15% difference and the Professor Siegle's of the world see it as 10%. However,the economy is clearly starting to rev up and real estate is on the mend.This bodes well going forward and the affluent are the main benificieries.They are really starting to spend and live the good life.


    Sadly,the politicos are doing there best to stick a fork into the mix,but, listed companies have the ability an where with all to skirt government interference and will see growing earnings.Even though the gridlock is normally positive,sadly, under the current administration the House can't seem to stop the agencies from acting,but,still I feel the companies will push through it.


    IMHO,will see some sideways movements,but, this year is not similar to history.We are going higher and as the money sits on the sideline an watches the market grind higher the frustration grows as folks listen to t/v noise makers tell of the coming pullback.


    Ten days of pushing higher to end with 25 points down tells me the next 10% is up ! Opinions are always worth only 2 cents in today's current value (mine too),so, as I post almost daily that I raise stops religiously and keep them 1.5 to 2% under current prices. Or tight to state it simply. I don't want to be out of the market as we might see a big leg up,but,on the chance that we do get a powerful down day I've got no problems being stopped and shopping a few percent lower.However, i'm not staying out.


    DOW target for 2013 15,500
    16 Mar 2013, 05:56 AM Reply Like
  • may get a bit delay, but may happen
    16 Mar 2013, 06:40 AM Reply Like
  • the "averages" as they always do "tend to overshoot." but i agree absolutely this only makes the craft of "stock picking" that much more enticing. DTV was up HUGE today. "on no news"? really? yeah, sure. i've move beyond having an investing thesis (was it 4 short years ago i coined the term?) to the thesis now branching out into various "themes." that's a nice way of saying there is a universe of 400-600 equities worth piling into right here, right now. DTV is obviously a favorite of ours...i'd like to think GE is going to bust a move here...i fail to see why they haven't taken advantage of the Boeing battery disaster...hopefully that's a "yet" i hear. there really is a lot to be excited about...and this excitement needs to be shared openly and con gusto if you want to be considered "el jeffe" in my view. i'm out of the averages...but certainly not individual names. i am HOPING the market will give a solid correction so that an entry point can be created to jump right back in this thing. having said that "you can wait a lifetime for the market to come down to your price point." needless to say in this "of what is this an instance of" market "it's Wall Street's job to buy." and have they been wrong to behave in such a "one track mind" way? and of course the answer is NO. with the bull market now branching out to the dollar and "dollar denominated assets" i'm failing to see how capitalism has lost this battle.
    16 Mar 2013, 06:42 AM Reply Like
  • The current US President is one in 100 million in leading the recovery after the Bush recession.
    16 Mar 2013, 06:44 AM Reply Like
  • Troll alert ! Here we go again ! Obama has done less than nothing ! He continues to thwart any an all efforts by US firms to control the highest tax on the planet an the daily monsterous regulations.


    The good new is what Ben B is doing and Ben B. decides when the money ends.Not the President !


    Funny how the US economy has rebounded over two trillion dollars since 2007 even though per capita wealth is near a 40 year low. Sad as that is where would the US economy be if the Fed didn't have 3 trillon floating in hot air on their books ?
    16 Mar 2013, 06:51 AM Reply Like
  • Double troll alert: Fact is no one could have done more while every move, every suggestion, every attempt to do anything has been met by the Party of No. If given the chance by the minority party that happens to control the legislature (by all sorts of political shenanigans) we would have seen this economy pushed to higher levels two years ago. And not just for the well-off.


    Tell me, how is it that a political party that has done everything it can to preserve an obscenely low tax structure for the very richest of the country can refuse to even consider a modest hike in the minimum wage? And then tell me how they get away with it?
    16 Mar 2013, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • 3X troll alert !


    Get your facts from t/v commercials ? The uber rich are getting richer.Most are Democrats.. Zuck, Gates ,Page,Buffet ,Schmidt, Jobs, Hollywoods etc. They talk higher taxes for all,but,have the best accountants!And, get hands off treatment via the IRS at the direction of the WH.


    Look at FBs or MSFT..or WB.But.. who has more law suits against the IRS than Mr Buffet ?


    Who in Congress is 100% responsible for all the 'WS'ers getting such great tax treatment.. ??


    Psssst Sen Chuck Schumer..


    Your saying the House is the party of no ! Their just trying to slow the growth of spending.. Maybe your blind to the world's problems and the billions who wonder what they will eat each day ! I don't live in the US and I give millions each year to help. I'm not a US citizen now,but, I know who is responsible for much of the world's problems !


    Yes, Central Banks around the world all contribute,but, only one prints the Reserve currency.If you can figure out who that is you can know who to point the finger at and which world leader is most responsible.


    PS And the nit picking.. minimum wage jobs are not head of household jobs. There entry level at best. The young need to get exposure to the labor market and don't need to compete with seniors or head of house holders. If the per capita wealth hadn't been smasked so badly over the last 5 years a greater % of the retiring boomers could actually retire. The structural aspect the Fed touts are due to the destruction of wealth. And, the best way to restore the wealth is to TAX less !
    16 Mar 2013, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • Ben B is the man behind the curtains pulling all the strings and propping up the stock market buying (buying-time) up the 10-year notes/bond pushing yield lowers and making bonds-butt ugly compared to stocks, which is forcing some investor's out of the bonds into stock. Ben B has put a temporary floor under this market-for now, which will go higher unless he stops printing money, or there's another catalyst or catastrophe that (terrorist attack) occurs or oil goes higher. Oil is in everything we use or consume and it can drive up inflation. Enjoy the ride, because at some point this has to come to an end! The economy and stock markets aren't connected, so what else could cause a 20% correction? What say you? Will the economy eventually adjust interest rates, given all this QE ?
    16 Mar 2013, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • SA current !


    This totally backs up what I'm saying...
    Look what has happened over the last 5 years.. market average is up,but, the NATION has sunk ! Big time...


    And, these numbers are still quoted in the much weaker US dollar.
    22 Mar 2013, 06:03 AM Reply Like
  • For those anticipating, hoping ,praying ,for a "pullback" wishful thinking just not happening.
    16 Mar 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • So, the median advance from a high has been "just" 3%. That means, of course, 50% of the time the advance was more than 3%. The real question isn't "what's the median?" Rather it's what were the conditions when 1, 2, 3, 4, 5...% increases occurred following a new high? What were the time spans since the previous highs? How low was the bear? How different was the inflation-adjusted new highs from the old highs? What are the correlates?


    You can learn from history, but absolutely meaningless observations such as this turkey will teach you nothing.


    Regardless, fact is we haven't reached that new high yet (St. Dow of the Industrials notwithstanding. Who among us really uses the Dow at their yardstick?). If the big, scary pullback being touted these days isn't going to occur until 2-4% (on median, maybe even more given the circumstances today) gain following that high, why get out now? Even if I were a turn-around trader, which I'm not, why would I give up that median 3%?
    16 Mar 2013, 10:13 AM Reply Like
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