Like clockwork, IDC's PC shipment forecasts keep falling while its tablet forecasts keep rising....


Like clockwork, IDC's PC shipment forecasts keep falling while its tablet forecasts keep rising. Following weak February Chinese sales, the research firm thinks global Q1 shipments could see a double-digit Y/Y drop, worse than a prior forecast for a 7.7% decline. It also thinks Q2 shipments could see a mid-single-digit drop ahead of a possible 2H recovery (made easier by favorable Y/Y comps). Two weeks ago, IDC forecast full-year shipments would drop 1.3%, which itself was worse than a prior outlook for a 2.8% increase.

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Comments (13)
  • RLDAY
    , contributor
    Comments (34) | Send Message
     
    Question. With the seemingly endless bad news regarding PC's are you tempted to recommend getting out of the stock? I have held NVDA for months despite the constant bombardment of unhelpful news, and wouldn't mind switching to another stock.
    18 Mar 2013, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • pinbot
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
     
    Why would you consider selling when Nvidia has the top performing video card in the high-end Titan that's selling very well, they are leading in the HPC segment, the Tegra 4 is the best performing mobile chip, the second dividend is coming soon, and they are announcing more information regarding Geforce GRID cloud gaming tomorrow at the GTC conference. It sounds like you should do a little DD before making your decision.
    18 Mar 2013, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (7217) | Send Message
     
    Semiconductor sales fall in the summer.
    19 Mar 2013, 12:03 AM Reply Like
  • 71324
    , contributor
    Comments (321) | Send Message
     
    If NVDA uses their large cash horde to do some stock buybacks, it would help. Otherwise they will be dead money for a long time. Consider writing calls. In case of a market crash, NVDA could drop to below $10.

     

    Week of Nov 17, 2008
    7.10 Open
    7.29 High

     

    5.75 Low

     

    6.38 Close

     

    14,495,100

     

    6.30
    19 Mar 2013, 04:57 AM Reply Like
  • GuyGuacomole
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
     
    Intel did not change guidance and now is in the quiet period. How is it assumed that tablets continue to rise in this time frame? Cheap is the current vogue and tablets sales appear to be heavily relegated to the low profit cheap ticket market. Haswell should come out in June and new exciting form factors coming the remainder of this year which will put further pressure on tablet prices. One might look at the success of the Microsoft Surface Pro for a clue.
    18 Mar 2013, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • basa7
    , contributor
    Comments (58) | Send Message
     
    @pinbot,
    How did you get to that conclusion? I have 18 years experience in the segment, including Intel, AMD, and I have been lecturing on chip architect, yet I never dare to get to such a general conclusion, just interested in your logic, or simply because you hold Nvidia stock?
    18 Mar 2013, 10:45 PM Reply Like
  • rjgood
    , contributor
    Comments (233) | Send Message
     
    Expect this trend to continue for another 12-24 months. PCs are affected, game consoles are affected, music players are affected, smart TVs are affected.

     

    Tablets and Smartphones are hot, and will grab market share from nearly everything else.

     

    The good news, Tablets/Smartphones are disposable. Roughly every 2 years, people will be buying a new one. Which means that ecosystems will shift greatly between AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, etc. As fast as GOOG rose and AAPL fell, the same could happen in reverse. Or the distant 3rds could be tomorrows dominant ecosystem.
    18 Mar 2013, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • berylrb
    , contributor
    Comments (2378) | Send Message
     
    Sure, but there's more evidence that Apple users say Apple! It's seems like the big moves are between Android and Windows Phone, with BB in there somewhere. Arguably Android has the weaker ecosystem, and this is becoming more and more part of the discussion on SA.
    18 Mar 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • rjgood
    , contributor
    Comments (233) | Send Message
     
    Good insight, agreed. My wife transitioned away from Android with almost no issues. The only hurdle was that we had to export her contact list from gmail & import to outlook.

     

    AAPL has a very compelling ecosystem, but it only spans Phones/Tablets. PC/Mac is a loose integration that can exist anywhere, so I wouldn't call that part of the ecosystem.

     

    MSFT has a very strongly integrated ecosystem, if you are 100% MSFT on all 4 consumer devices. The MSFT ecosystem is embedded into the OS on all devices, and in every app. But low popularity in phones/tablets reduces the effectiveness of their ecosystem.

     

    Going to be an interesting 8 quarters.
    19 Mar 2013, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • flybywire54
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    My company supplies semiconductor quality control equipment and we see a turnaround starting beginning 2H'13 fuelled by price lowering on combo tablet/laptop .Haswell processors and lower cost LCD will be key and MFST the main beneficiary . Hardly the time to sell MFST .
    18 Mar 2013, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • Amena Holder
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    Sell DELL!
    19 Mar 2013, 03:27 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (7217) | Send Message
     
    Trust me, if (DELL) falls too much, Michael Dell will make a bid.
    19 Mar 2013, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • rjgood
    , contributor
    Comments (233) | Send Message
     
    I am interested in the touchscreen technology that Dell has an agreement to use. It is supposed to be cheap, and use commonly available metals. Cheap touch devices might keep Dell strong in the consumer game.

     

    "Dell, which has been wracked by investor struggles in the face of declining sales, is said to be partnering with Texas-based Uni-Pixel to build its copper-based touchscreens into Dell products."

     

    http://bit.ly/Zs68QH
    19 Mar 2013, 01:27 PM Reply Like
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