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BlackBerry (BBRY) +5.8% on a two-notch upgrade to Overweight from Morgan Stanley's Ehud Gelblum....

BlackBerry (BBRY) +5.8% on a two-notch upgrade to Overweight from Morgan Stanley's Ehud Gelblum. Gelblum, who had cut shares to Underweight in June when they were trading at $9.86, sees BB10 lifting ASPs and margins even as services attach rates slump He also sees a future for BB10 in the mid-range and raises the possibility of a partnership with Samsung or LG, but considers it unlikely the OS will become the world's #3 smartphone platform. FQ4 results are due in 8 days.
Comments (49)
  • Nice! :)
    20 Mar 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Sell low, buy high. Right. Got it.
    20 Mar 2013, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • That's how the sell side works, heh.
    20 Mar 2013, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • Underweight at $9 and overweight at $15+. Amazing!!! i sure these guys can explain it in a rational way, it's just too funny to believe these guys are money managers.
    20 Mar 2013, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • So true. :o
    20 Mar 2013, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • They don't... that's why they are called sell-side...
    20 Mar 2013, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • pdnfull you are so right


    and they get paid the big bucks
    20 Mar 2013, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Too late to jump in the Badwagon. We understand alot from ALPHA.
    20 Mar 2013, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • New price target $22 bucks by


    Morgan Stanley's Ehud Gelblum. Gelblum
    20 Mar 2013, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • Seems a little low.
    20 Mar 2013, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • Frightening, hope this is not a sell signal?
    20 Mar 2013, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • Well, when Cramer said buy (RNF) a month ago, the stock started to decline.
    20 Mar 2013, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • Wow. What a fool.


    The man had an underweight when it was 9. Somebody should really slap and punch him in the face for his incompetence. It's things like this that makes me never ever want to listen to a dumb analyst.
    20 Mar 2013, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Wilson, he cut it to under weight in June of 2012 and the stock did go down to ~$6 after that - so from that perspective he did give a good call :)


    Now based on the recent improving conditions related to ASP his perspective is that the stock deserves a over weight rating (I read it as a (strong?) buy rating).


    This is good for us who are long $BBRY - this will bring a lot of other analyst who are sitting on the sideline to join the bandwagon. The party has just begun.
    20 Mar 2013, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • oneinfiniteloop, The stock price dropped 4 and then went up 6 before he updated his target. That is a loss of $2 per share.
    20 Mar 2013, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • Vegas, I consider that as very bullish though. It shows that $MS was being very cautious before they more than doubled their expected price target on $BBRY. To me this is a very, very bullish sign that he waited well until $15+ to make that call. I am almost certain that $MS has done a lot of checks here in US (and around the world) to confirm that major enterprises are going to continue with $BBRY and also the channel checks to confirm the trend.


    Last but not the least, it also means that $15+ is now the base for this stock and it will most likely not dip below it.
    20 Mar 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • If you blindly follow any analysts without doing your homework, you get what you paid for. Everybody has a different risk tolerance. Everybody has a different time horizon.
    20 Mar 2013, 11:02 PM Reply Like
  • Does this mean the analyst had rated it "Neutral" or "Overweight" from it's long decline to $9.86 before going to "Underweight"?


    Still bad timing of calls, in my opinion.
    22 Mar 2013, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • good point, Tommy_Finger!
    22 Mar 2013, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • BB10 software was rejected by the UK for not being secure. The analysts don't care about stuff like that.
    20 Mar 2013, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • BB10 is a completely new software and all OSes go through this process of getting "rejected" - it is not new. As an example of analogy consider the long time taken to launch Z10 in US - the US carriers rejected the initial version of BB10 as being fit to be launched on their networks and they went back and forth with Verizon and AT&T before they got it right.


    This could take a quarter or so for $BBRY to get this in their bag. They already have the BB 7.1 certified - so it is not like those folks will be able to jump to another OS (iPhone or Android) because none of them have this certification anyway - only $BBRY has it.


    Guardian is a known perma bear as far as $BBRY is concerned so take this news with a spoon full of salt.
    20 Mar 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • the IP5 got rocked by the media for having a maps issue. i'd think this should get just as much attention. security is more important than maps, I'd say.
    20 Mar 2013, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Making rash judgments based on media headlines is a quick way to the poor house. For a little more nuanced approach, this link should better explain BB's status with the Brits:

    20 Mar 2013, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • thanks for that link. yet another attempt to falsely bash BB to entice shareholders to sell just before a big upgrade.


    these people have no shame
    20 Mar 2013, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • Here is further clarification directly from the horses mouth - next time be careful before you take Guardian seriously - they need to face inquiry and stiff penalties for shame reporting.

    20 Mar 2013, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • Gelblum "considers it unlikely the OS will become the world's #3 smartphone platform", but who cares, as long as they sell enough? The position in the market is incidental, or did I just miss hearing a lot of people saying "you shouldn't buy that phone, it's only in fourth place..."?
    20 Mar 2013, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • nice way to start Spring!
    20 Mar 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • To NYC Trader ..... The UK did NOT reject BB10 for not being secure! Would you please at least do some reading before commenting. The article you are refering to said that the UK had not yet approved the BB10 because they were not yet finished their approval process. Since , like the USA, the BB10 would be used in Top Secret " scenarios their process is very long and detailed.
    20 Mar 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • "BlackBerry's new BB10 software has been rejected by the British government as not secure enough for essential work, the Guardian can reveal."


    Pretty sure the article says "REJECTED"...

    20 Mar 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • yes but only temporarily, until BB makes the necessary modifications.
    20 Mar 2013, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • Here's the reason you should stop reading The Guardian:


    UPDATE 3/20/13 10:45AM EST: Blackberry has emailed us the following statement related to this article:


    “Discussions with BlackBerry are ongoing about the use of the BlackBerry 10 platform in government. We have not yet performed an evaluation of the security of that platform, but we expect to be issuing Platform Guidance in the summer. This will cover a number of platforms including Blackberry 10 (and the use of ‘Balance’).


    We have a long standing security partnership with BlackBerry and this gives us confidence that the BlackBerry 10 platform is likely to represent a viable solution for UK Government.”


    Said a GCHQ spokesperson.

    20 Mar 2013, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • 404 error on your link NYC Trader... wonder why that is? ;)
    20 Mar 2013, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • Sounds to me like the British government is testing and has not accepted the BB10. The analyst rushed through this and took it as a sign that it was rejected. Bad journalism.
    20 Mar 2013, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • Let me plead for the analyst. (wait, I just have to make an appointment with my psychiatrist); OK, this man was wrong. New information, unavailable at the time, as well as the reinvented blackberry phones hit the market, get orders (some big orders), other new Samsung offering seem to offer froth but not core value improvements, the reception and review of the new hardware is excellent (though he doesnt appear to base his opinion on that fact), and for understandable reasons, Blackberry gives the overall impression of being a good notch above survival mode. He may very well be at the vanguard of analysts who are about to rapidly give new grades to blackberry. I always give credit to those who have the stuffing to change their opinion when new information/facts become available.
    20 Mar 2013, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks for restoring my blood pressure @eieio
    20 Mar 2013, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • It was indeed rejected. article above.
    20 Mar 2013, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • @NYC Trader - Straight from the CESG:


    "Discussions with BlackBerry are ongoing about the use of the BlackBerry 10 platform in government. We have not yet performed an evaluation of the security of that platform, but we expect to be issuing Platform Guidance in the summer. This will cover a number of platforms including Blackberry 10 (and the use of 'Balance'). We have a long standing security partnership with BlackBerry and this gives us confidence that the BlackBerry 10 platform is likely to represent a viable solution for UK Government."
    20 Mar 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • See my reply above
    20 Mar 2013, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Too much fixation on the past.
    Now that BB10 is here, why do people keep rambling about it as it was part of the past?


    Clearly there is pent-up demand from current BB owners, but more importantly there are people tired of the 'toy' smartphones that want something more robust. And that offers secure data communication if they desire to use it.


    Simply, multitasking is new to iOS and Android users - who knew you could have this flexibility?. Also hundreds of thousands of apps does not mean quality apps. While the go-go US market may have shunned the BB as not cool, around the world it is sought for being businesslike and tight.


    TWT - but it looks like they have got it right.
    20 Mar 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Good day. More positive news for BlackBerry. Still much too early to determine if BB10 will be the third OS or not. It could take 12 to 18 months for that to happen. The focus for the short to medium term should be on sales/balance sheet and traction. The rankings come later after 3 or 4 quarters.


    20 Mar 2013, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • Now, the question is: sell a day before the 28th and realise profits or wait until the stock collapses after a spike as usual...
    20 Mar 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Personally I am long, quite long to be exact but I truly recommend that you go short immediately and to the very limits of your strongly held opinion. If you are not prepared to exercise your opinion by committing to your own risk/reward proposition, why bother other people with that same opinion. Commit or remain silent. Personally, i hope you commit.
    20 Mar 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Averaged over time to €9,81 with SP now at €12,57 in Dutch/Swedish direct trade. But...


    ...I've been in and out of RIM/BBRY too many times now for some profit, but no big profit. With all these spikes, it seems a swing or even day trade stock, very time-consuming to observe. Too often, so-called "analysts" have claimed that a new higher level SP will be sustainable. It was not and the stock collapsed the day after, only to run up to a new spike some days or weeks later. It's ping-pong.
    20 Mar 2013, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • "UK Government Dismisses Blackberry 10 Blacklist Rumours"

    20 Mar 2013, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • so...glad we're all making obscene amounts of money :)
    20 Mar 2013, 11:05 PM Reply Like
  • Do not dance with the market. (BBRY) will likely be very volatile, but in the end, it will be much higher.
    20 Mar 2013, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • Here is the bio on Ehud Gelblum:


    Ehud Gelblum, PhD
    Communications Equipment & Data Networking


    Ehud Gelblum is a Managing Director covering the Communications Equipment, Data Networking, and Wireless Equipment industries. He joined Morgan Stanley in October 2009 following seven years at JP Morgan, where he covered the same industries. Prior to JP Morgan, Ehud worked at Andor Capital on the buy side, where he covered the global telecom services industry, and from 1998 to 2001 he covered telecom at Merrill Lynch and then at Credit Suisse First Boston.


    Ehud has been the No. 1 ranked analyst in Institutional Investor Magazine 10 times, as well as top ranked in other investor polls. Last year, he was inducted into the Institutional Investor Magazine Hall of Fame as one of just 49 first class inductees. Prior to joining Wall Street, Ehud was a researcher at AT&T Bell Labs from 1993 to 1998, where he received six patents in the fields of digital communications and information theory. Ehud holds Ph.D. and Master of Science degrees in electrical engineering from Columbia University, and undergraduate degrees in economics from The Wharton School and electrical engineering from the University of Pennsylvania.
    21 Mar 2013, 02:56 AM Reply Like
  • get in and make pile of money.
    21 Mar 2013, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • very nice to see BB showing strength today after yesterday's swell instead of profit taking.
    21 Mar 2013, 11:02 AM Reply Like
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