Seeking Alpha

Checks indicate U.S. consumer pre-orders for the BlackBerry Z10 (BBRY +1.1%) "have been light...

Checks indicate U.S. consumer pre-orders for the BlackBerry Z10 (BBRY +1.1%) "have been light and well below expectations," says Detwiler Fenton's Jeff Johnston. AT&T began taking pre-orders on March 12, and Verizon 2 days later; both carriers will start actual sales within a week. He thinks FY14 BB110 sales are likely to be in the 13M-15M range, below the ~25M forecast by others. "BBRY has done a nice job with the OS; however, they need to figure out how to overcome the lack of mindshare their products have." (Goldman/Jefferies)
Comments (46)
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3079) | Send Message
     
    Older BB7 and BB6 devices sales volume was in the 8mil to 10mil per quarter range. The difference was that there were low end BB6 and BB7 devices, and the BB10 is beginning with just one device. BlackBerry (BBRY) need a wider range of BB10 devices to address more end user entry price points.

     

    Johnston does make one offhand good point, and that is the level to which end users will be "savvy" to navigating through an operating system. However, I think he confuses familiarity with technical skills. End users are use to finding an icon and clicking it, mostly through using computers. Many end users like the single home button, which I tend to call the "oh sh*t button", because when a user gets confused, they have one button to push to get home. Initial skill needs and intimidation factor could keep some people away from interfaces that are too different from older familiar interfaces.
    21 Mar 2013, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • chattyintrovert
    , contributor
    Comments (125) | Send Message
     
    @Herr Hansa

     

    There will be 6 BB10 devices released in 2013.
    21 Mar 2013, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (7866) | Send Message
     
    Only 8 months left to release the remaining five devices. One is known, the Q10. Nothing is know about its release date, though. Even less is known about the other four.

     

    It could well be that the usual happens: a run up to the 28th March, a spike on that day - and then the customary downbeating to previous low levels. Pingpong.
    21 Mar 2013, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • Shergar
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    System, I hear you, but the more I hear people say what you just said, the more I think its priced in; I don't think we get the big sell the news move because too may people are expecting it. Its too comfortable of an idea. What do you say?
    21 Mar 2013, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (7866) | Send Message
     
    Happened too many times before. I day traded it. I shorted it. I went long also. No matter what, the volatility is just too erratic for someone with too little time on his hands.

     

    I am just extremely wary of Mr. Heins, after all, when working in the mobile phone industry, I saw how he and his team literally destroyed Siemens Mobile, his former employer, with oddball assumptions and device strategies. In the end, the shreds were sold to BenQ and, if you remember, even that was botched.

     

    It's just that I cannot trust this man and his awkward presence.
    21 Mar 2013, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (1990) | Send Message
     
    I'm not worried about Thor as he has brilliant advisers backing him through and through
    21 Mar 2013, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • Tyson2008
    , contributor
    Comments (140) | Send Message
     
    WHAT are you talking about?
    Heins took a money losing division of Siemens and turned it into one of the most profitable ones they have.

     

    I gues some people will say anything, no matter how far spun, to creative negativity. . . it's called manipulation.
    21 Mar 2013, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (7866) | Send Message
     
    No. Heins was made chief of the Siemens' mobile phone division in April 2004, after Ian Moyes premature death in 2003. Under Heins' rule, Siemens Mobile failed miserably. It was the end of mobile phones in Germany. See http://bit.ly/Zgj4pt and http://bit.ly/WXWuYw

     

    One year after the Siemens Mobile and BenQ disaster, he appeared at RiM. Go figure.

     

    "His disappointing attempt to improve the state of Siemens’ cell-phone unit comes to mind."

     

    "In the first half of 2005, Siemens’s mobile division had turned into a real pain as it had been losing from 1,5 to 2 mln. Euro a day, furthermore by June its share went down to 5,4% (according to Strategy Analytics). Apparently, only a miracle or an incredibly successful and awesome line-up could save the company’s day. Over at Siemens they decided to reject the latter idea, as they were regarding things in a sober light – by that moment the amount of developers had been reduced to the utmost (over two years a part company’s staff had been laid off in order to cut down expenses). The remaining team could not support the already existing handsets and develop software for new ones – that was too much for them. As a result ordinary consumers saw awfully written software, crudeness of handsets and recession of Siemens-branded devices’ reputation that has started in 2003, to the point when they are considered as unstable, buggy handsets. Regrettably, Siemens was not in habit of correcting own mistakes – instead the company’s managers kept spreading high-flown words. Giving an interview to me, one the company’s directors was very proud to report on the success Xelibri line-up had, even though by then it was not a secret that this range had turned out to be a deafening failure, while all developments in this field had already been shut down. The same can be said about the company’s attempts to somewhat stabilize the disorder in its business – the real deeds got replaced with grandiloquent words."
    21 Mar 2013, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • kherman
    , contributor
    Comments (753) | Send Message
     
    The z10 ships with videos to teach you how to use it. The first thing the phone does is show you the videos.

     

    Its a simple interfxce. Just different. God, I had my phone a year when I learned that double tapping home did anything. This wholenonintuitive problem is not unique to bbry
    21 Mar 2013, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • p21
    , contributor
    Comments (171) | Send Message
     
    >> "I saw how he and his team literally destroyed Siemens Mobile,"
    Assuming what you said is true, this OMG. I hope he displays his tactics on his competitors rather than on his own company.
    21 Mar 2013, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • chattyintrovert
    , contributor
    Comments (125) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if Google's CEO will be one of "the few" interested in buying a BlackBerry?

     

    http://bit.ly/WNy0jy

     

    Google's boss uses BlackBerry!
    21 Mar 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Shergar
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    This is what is called "BLIND WITH BAD NEWS", he doesn't know, can't tell, but yet decides to "say something".
    21 Mar 2013, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • kherman
    , contributor
    Comments (753) | Send Message
     
    How does this guy have access to databases that store the preorder info?
    21 Mar 2013, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • kherman
    , contributor
    Comments (753) | Send Message
     
    I say my previous comment because I got $30 off just to preorder online!
    21 Mar 2013, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (5363) | Send Message
     
    "This is what is called "BLIND WITH BAD NEWS", he doesn't know, can't tell, but yet decides to "say something"."

     

    Nope, it's called bad journalism.
    21 Mar 2013, 11:01 PM Reply Like
  • Transcend Asset
    , contributor
    Comments (1524) | Send Message
     
    Shorts making a last ditch effort to find cover, most likely!

     

    Or the analyst trying to bring the price down so his brokerage can get in. I don't believe any of this.
    21 Mar 2013, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • grumbles
    , contributor
    Comments (91) | Send Message
     
    detweiler fenton,if your chanel checks are anything like james faucette, good luck. another desperate short.
    21 Mar 2013, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • slcUTAH
    , contributor
    Comments (504) | Send Message
     
    Sales in the US will end up being satisfactory. I don't think they will be outstanding/record breaking and that's OK. The US is the toughest market because it's the most competitive for smartphones. More new phones in the pipeline. The world is a big place.

     

    -Cheers.
    21 Mar 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • bbryuser
    , contributor
    Comments (427) | Send Message
     
    interesting time will tell
    21 Mar 2013, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • WATERLOO JOE
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    I was just in the Future Shop store to pick up cables to connect my Z10 to my big screen TV, and i asked the tech how sales were and he said they were selling very well ,i asked Jack what the ratio was,, and his enthusiastic reply was two Z10 's to 0ne I phone. ,
    21 Mar 2013, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • gchaput
    , contributor
    Comments (114) | Send Message
     
    The device is not yet available in the US, so why are we talking about US consumers of this product? Aren't we putting the cart before the horse? Make the product available and then observe sales volumes.
    21 Mar 2013, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • Tony2013
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    It is available tomorrow morning. Launch party in NYC was tonight.
    22 Mar 2013, 12:49 AM Reply Like
  • MC12345
    , contributor
    Comments (18) | Send Message
     
    ...am i missing something but who is Detwiler Fenton's Jeff Johnston? and what have been his notable calls ? serious question...
    21 Mar 2013, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • eldon wilk
    , contributor
    Comments (90) | Send Message
     
    BlackBerry’s new slogan should be -
    "Don't tell me the sky is the limit when there are footprints on the moon".
    I really like that.
    21 Mar 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • WATERLOO JOE
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    Here is what this company is worth

     

    FINANCIALS SECTOR
    »
    DIVERSIFIED FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY
    »
    DMCD
    Detwiler Fenton Group Inc (DMCD:OTC US)
    Last $0.14 USDChange Today 0.00 / 0.00%Volume 0.0DMCD On Other Exchanges
    As of 8:10 PM 03/5/13 All times are local (Market data is delayed by at least 15 minutes).
    SnapshotNewsChartsFina...

     

    You can loan them 86 cents and they would be worth a buck , which is a lot more than anything they tell you.
    21 Mar 2013, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • DF33
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    lol @waterloo joe, to be fair there was a time in november last year that they could have made a buck with a loan of only .70 cents...

     

    You cant know the information that he is claiming to have access to... what is his source at AT and T?

     

    ... bbry is not a stock that needs to be compared to samsung or apples handset sales... I would expect that relative to the iphone pre-sale, blackberry pre-sales would be viewed as minimal. But minimal blackberry sales in the US is all this stock needs to hit 22 bucks.

     

    To be successful in the USA, Blackberry will need to get into the market and have people see it in action... I personally have probably been responsible for about 20 z10 sales because I love the phone and show people what it is that i like about it... word of mouth for a phone as good as this one is will grow sales over time...

     

    I imagine Jeff Johnston will have a retraction or restatement to cover his butt in the next couple of weeks... shorts are stressing...
    21 Mar 2013, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • grumbles
    , contributor
    Comments (91) | Send Message
     
    too bad they could spare the money to do chanell checks,youcan really rely on an otc company worth 14cents lol
    21 Mar 2013, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • WATERLOO JOE
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    DF33 You said it best , as well word of mouth is the cost free Gorilla type of promotion every one wants, i was told by the Future Shop sales chap in Waterloo today that Z10 were 2 to 1 against iphone which is a 360 degree move compared to the past year.
    21 Mar 2013, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • Tony2013
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    The source at AT&T was the guy that shows up at 6pm when the workers have all gone for the day.
    22 Mar 2013, 12:49 AM Reply Like
  • Avi80r
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    That made me fall out of my chair! TY!
    22 Mar 2013, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • customize
    , contributor
    Comments (87) | Send Message
     
    The only reason I believe sales projection might not meet their expectation is that the US consumers isn't getting the news about Blackberry new phones, yet alone the BB10os. The US carriers definitively haven't made any attempt to broadcast and advertise the product out in the open as they do other leading products they distribute. Nevertheless I will be waiting to purchase from whom ever the Q10 whenever available.
    21 Mar 2013, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • Transcend Asset
    , contributor
    Comments (1524) | Send Message
     
    I don't know about the carriers having to broadcast further. Every day, while surfing, I run into more than 10 Blackberry ads. The firm is doing a lot of marketing.

     

    And Blackberry ads are everywhere in Canada: on trains, buses, billboards, facing escalators, etc.
    21 Mar 2013, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • jaberwock
    , contributor
    Comments (236) | Send Message
     
    What is "lack of mindshare"? Apparently BlackBerry products have it, and others don't.

     

    Can someone explain it for me?
    21 Mar 2013, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3079) | Send Message
     
    He may have been better stating "in the public eye (view)". In the US not many people mention BlackBerry, and some people even think the company went out of business. It was not just the financial news that was extremely negative on this company for so long, even tech blogs bashed BlackBerry. You can see the bias clearly when the only devices shown on articles were more than three years old. BlackBerry has a great deal of work to overcome past perception in the US market.
    21 Mar 2013, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • Avi80r
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Sure....... we'll see.
    21 Mar 2013, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mark David
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Yes the single innovative home button. What an amazing feature for the non multitasking OS were would we be without it.
    21 Mar 2013, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • eieio
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    I just got a BB10 3 days ago. It is really not very difficult to get up to speed with the new set up.
    The best feature is the typing. I came from a BB7 and was convinced that I would not like the touch keyboard. Turns out that it is really a great experience. The predictive typing is really magic. If I type "the quick brown" the BB10 will predict "fox". I then flick it to the screen and the BB10 predicts "jumps" etc. If you are a 2 finger typist like me this is a great feature. My daughter who is a 2 handed quick typist finds this feature a pain and has turned it off.
    I would have a difficult time now returning to a BB7
    21 Mar 2013, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • Dmitry Kovalchuk
    , contributor
    Comments (199) | Send Message
     
    Check the web, z10 with ATT contract was sold out for some time on the BestBuy website. It is available again though.
    21 Mar 2013, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • mteng
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    This news is a little hard for me to swallow. I'm going to cross my fingers for now.
    21 Mar 2013, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • Albertum
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    13M-15M for "FY2014: BB10" sales still sounds bullish to me.
    21 Mar 2013, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • hofjac
    , contributor
    Comments (231) | Send Message
     
    I Phone...yesterday's news. Clumsy interface in comparison to BB10 and for that matter Samsung's S4. Apple will be behind Nokia yet. Maybe BB can sell Apple their OS 6 or maybe they will just take it....and make it their own..they are good at that...
    21 Mar 2013, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mobile Software Developer
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    Analysts please stop prediction. Let the baby come out (probably in a day or two) then consumer will decide...
    21 Mar 2013, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • WalnutsRM
    , contributor
    Comments (20) | Send Message
     
    AT&T did not make pre-orders available for the "Premier" business customers... I was one that was unable to order and found numerous forum posts stating the same. It's tough to properly gauge pre-orders when the largest group of existing customers are unable to pre-order...
    21 Mar 2013, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • PersephonShropshire
    , contributor
    Comments (137) | Send Message
     
    13-15M BB10 still would give them a profit for the full year.
    22 Mar 2013, 02:04 AM Reply Like
  • MC12345
    , contributor
    Comments (18) | Send Message
     
    but if his contacts in the "channel" were that good, he would not be working for a firm i have never heard of (and i work on the street)...seriously i have to wonder who these guys are and why they get any air time. If he is right (and that's a big IF) then i lose money - fine - but if he has made NO notable calls in the past then air time is really suspect...i swear it smells like a hail mary...
    22 Mar 2013, 02:40 AM Reply Like
  • Mo Money 2011
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    Smells very much like a Hail Mary... no one checks the "channel checks" these analysts do. His firm probably has a huge short position :)
    11 Apr 2013, 03:52 PM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Tools
Find the right ETFs for your portfolio:
Seeking Alpha's new ETF Hub
ETF Investment Guide:
Table of Contents | One Page Summary
Read about different ETF Asset Classes:
ETF Selector

Next headline on your portfolio:

|