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Citing upcoming catalysts, UBS puts Apple (AAPL +1.6%) on its Most Preferred list, helping...

Citing upcoming catalysts, UBS puts Apple (AAPL +1.6%) on its Most Preferred list, helping shares outperform in early trading. The firm was among the first to raise alarm bells about iPhone order cuts. Apple is now up 11% from its March 4 low.
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Comments (15)
  • redponydoc
    , contributor
    Comments (361) | Send Message
     
    What gives?

     

    Was Steve Jobs reincarnated?
    25 Mar 2013, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • Matt Jonza
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Samsung's S4 debut happened.
    25 Mar 2013, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • fshattuck
    , contributor
    Comments (66) | Send Message
     
    Actually, it's the hedge funds that missed out on the run up in the last4-5 years doing the usual media bad-mouthing (Can't do w/out Jobs, Cook is a tool, Android is eating Apple's lunch) so that they can feast on the shorts and get back in with the rebound. Why any individual attempts to make money on the stock market is beyond me. Apple has been and always will be a fundamentally sound business, run by people who know what they're doing - Steve Jobs didn't hire dummies, a fact that all the naysayers seem to ignore - with an impecable product line.
    25 Mar 2013, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • aperture1
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    And the best execution measured by customer satisfaction in the world.
    25 Mar 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • kkeate
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    amen to that
    25 Mar 2013, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (1932) | Send Message
     
    Apple could go up or down very hard. If they miss, or significantly disappoint with guidance, it could hit the skids and test the high 300s. If the dividend/buyback disappoints, it could also hit the skids. Key insiders have just sold tens of millions in stock (not always a good indicator), so I am cautious. Obviously, if they beat, surprise, bring out new products, etc., it could easily run up hard.
    25 Mar 2013, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • MajorDude
    , contributor
    Comments (252) | Send Message
     
    According to NASDAQ, there have been 10 insider trades in the last 3 months (7 purchases, 3 sales). 26,788 shares were sold - virtually all of them by Robert L Mansfield and Craig Federighi. Both of those sales followed option exercise and represented approximately half of their purchased shares (so, conceivably sale was to pay for taxes.)
    25 Mar 2013, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (1932) | Send Message
     
    I agree, but the problem I have is that Mansfield and Federighi were pretty good indicators in the past. Mansfield is the chief of hardware--he knows every detail of Apple's rollout plans as far as their eyes can see! Why did he sell >$10 million, about half of his exercise, just last week? It troubles me. If he knows they are bringing out the next great thing anytime soon...if he knows they are going to beat...why does he pass up millions by selling below $450? Insiders sell for many reasons, so I would not make a decision based on this information alone, but I think it warrants caution, to say the least.
    25 Mar 2013, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • Keep It Simple
    , contributor
    Comments (471) | Send Message
     
    There are two types of employee stock options, non-qualified stock options (NQs) and incentive stock options (ISOs), and each are taxed quite differently, but both require that you pay taxes on them. Therefore, he sold because he needed the cash to pay taxes on those exercised options.

     

    More info on exercised options taxing can be found here - http://bit.ly/ZlxMPE
    25 Mar 2013, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (1932) | Send Message
     
    KIS, you could be right, but why sell over 50%? Maybe CA's tax rate adds enough to make it necessary?
    25 Mar 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • curreyr
    , contributor
    Comments (708) | Send Message
     
    Humble on NQSO's, the difference between current price and strike price is "income" (and the required withholding is likely to be ~50% in CA even if their marginal is less).

     

    So, when a price dips, it appears as less "income" and the tax bill is lower, and the cost basis becomes that price.

     

    When the price recovers, and held for more than a year, then it's a long term gain on the difference between the cost basis set at exercise and the sale price after price recovery.

     

    The point is, NQSO exercise by insiders is actually a bullish move by them since they expect a price recovery to more than make up for the income tax they pay at exercise.
    25 Mar 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Tusc
    , contributor
    Comments (277) | Send Message
     
    Hard for us to make sense of insider sells,and as you said, it can happen for many reasons. Maybe $10 million is just chump change for many of the top dogs at Apple, so I am sure they will still benefit on any new announcement by a huge amount. These guys operate in a whole different world as far as stock holders go.
    25 Mar 2013, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • rperson
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Exactly where are you getting that information about tens of millions sold by insiders? I checked Yahoo finance and saw no indication of that. Are you referring to people exercising options?
    25 Mar 2013, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • mwaldmer
    , contributor
    Comments (48) | Send Message
     
    Just think a couple months ago you could not find a good word about Apple. Now look, what has changed? Not much but I started a position at $442 which I did not have before.
    25 Mar 2013, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • 282407
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    This is the same UBS that talked me out of doubling down on AAPL in 2006.
    26 Mar 2013, 02:37 AM Reply Like
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