Seeking Alpha

Gold may have had its "last hurrah," says SocGen, expecting $1,375/oz. by the end of the year...

Gold may have had its "last hurrah," says SocGen, expecting $1,375/oz. by the end of the year thanks to an improving U.S. economy bringing with it a stronger dollar and higher interest rates. SocGen also notes the turn in professional sentiment as evidenced by heavy ETF redemptions. GLD -0.9% premarket.
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Comments (47)
  • css1971
    , contributor
    Comments (870) | Send Message
     
    Oh wait, so I should be buying?
    2 Apr 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • Brian Bobbitt
    , contributor
    Comments (1956) | Send Message
     
    Seems like the SocGen is the only one it history that knows where a price of something will be. Boy, he must be a genius. All the kings odds makers and all the kings horses can neva tell what is gonna happen, but this guy knows what gold will do. Gee, I bet he can change lead into gold too.
    I ain't sellin'. Not buyin' more just yet but gettin' durn close. You can pull the wool over this old fool's eyes quite a bit, but not about the PM's. This smelly ole sea cap'n says we are very close to a bottom in gold(Au) and silver (Ag). In this case, using 'bottom', is we ain't gonna see these levels in precious metals for much longer, nor will many remember what we say here.
    Again, I repeat myself, if you have no gold or silver, get some silver eagles. Start there, and keep adding to it. If you have not got 10% of your stash in silver eagles, or maple leafs, you should oughta start. Add slowly, and if you're a real beginner, get into SLV or SIVR. Stay out of miners as they will always act like a stock and 'have trouble'. If and when things get hot, you can sell your ETF shares and trade them in for physical silver. Don't listen to those bears and folks who say there is plenty of silver. For industry, the silver stocks are low. Industrial silver is a powdered kind that has to be made special. You don't just take a silver bar and turn it into film or medicine. You have to work it, and that takes time and money.
    Get some Silver Eagles. If you can afford them get some Gold Eagles too.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    2 Apr 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • 9532921
    , contributor
    Comments (219) | Send Message
     
    Did you copy and paste this from a Charles Dickens novel? I feel like you may be committing copyright infringement.

     

    Unless this is really how you talk. In that case, I love the enthusiasm and hype. It will make the crash even harder, making my puts that much more valuable.
    2 Apr 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Jhalgren
    , contributor
    Comments (132) | Send Message
     
    Good advice!
    2 Apr 2013, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • Brian Bobbitt
    , contributor
    Comments (1956) | Send Message
     
    Well, I know how to use the kings english, and also know how to have fun. At my age, investing is fun, challanging and a game. I like to win, I hate losing, or even being second. If my language is a bit colorful, remember I ran a boat full of passengers for entertainment for 25 years and learned to HAVE FUN. It is fun to use up as many words as you can to make a point and try to do it in one sentence. I like to be the master of instant understanding, and cut thru the bull. Does that clear that up?
    Capt Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    2 Apr 2013, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • 9532921
    , contributor
    Comments (219) | Send Message
     
    Well, my dear captain, I also like to HAVE FUN!

     

    That said, my comment to you was based directly on the fact that I think your opinion IS in fact bull, and your 1920's language doesn't build your case that you are keeping up with the times.

     

    IMO, "Keeping up with the times" = stop fearing the gov't and a market meltdown. The world is always getting better, we learned from the housing mistake and are ready to move on. Please join us so we can have more people to HAVE FUN with!
    3 Apr 2013, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3288) | Send Message
     
    Has the National Debt had its last hurrah?
    2 Apr 2013, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • OdysseusCA
    , contributor
    Comments (99) | Send Message
     
    I do not understand how long Precious Metals, especially Gold & Silver can continue to act contrary to price discover and supply & demand? How can sales of Gold & Silver Eagles, Canadian Maple Leafs set all time records and go into dealer allocation, yet still the price falls? How can Russia, China & India buy more than the global production of precious metals year over year and STILL the price falls?

     

    To paraphrase Marcellus from Hamlet, "Something is rotten in the State of Price Discovery", and I got to tell you, I'm with Eric Sprott and I'm BUYING physical silver & taking possession of it.
    2 Apr 2013, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Brian Bobbitt
    , contributor
    Comments (1956) | Send Message
     
    Well, kind of a back handed answer may be an answer that a detective once used when a participant in an investigation went on and on proving his innocence, and the detective said. "Methinks thou protestest too much." Kind of said that the PM's are protesting their bullishness too much. I would say we are on the eve of a large rise in the price of Au and Ag.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    2 Apr 2013, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • 9532921
    , contributor
    Comments (219) | Send Message
     
    You realize you wrote that on the eve of Au down 1.1%, Ag down .9%, right?

     

    Sorry I made money shorting the stocks you guys lent me for a VERY minimal fee :)
    3 Apr 2013, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • hummerh25
    , contributor
    Comments (99) | Send Message
     
    Might not go to $1375. But the metals are being sold very heavy and the dollars are going into stocks.
    Look out below.
    2 Apr 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Jhalgren
    , contributor
    Comments (132) | Send Message
     
    Indeed, the fools maybe piling into stocks but they will be very sorry and wringing their hands by the end of May or later this fall as the rosy bloom fades into dust. We do NOT have a growing economy. We do NOT have a growing economy. But we DO have a lot of idiots who may think we have growth--just more smoke and mirrors.
    2 Apr 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • bertrandrighi2
    , contributor
    Comments (37) | Send Message
     
    Metals being sold very heavy ?
    Really ?
    Methink, China, India, Russia, a lot of South America, Iran even, are NET BUYERS of Gold, hand over fist, at a combined rate of about 1000 TONS PER MONTH, or more....

     

    The BRAGGED AMOUNT of Gold for the USA is 10,000 TONS, less than one year of the above stated rate.
    Germany may have 6 or 7000. Italy 3500. France 3000.
    Strangely indeed, it's going to need 20 years to send back ALL the German Gold supposed to be in US vaults, some 3000 tons...

     

    Besides Russia, and China are BIG PRODUCERS, estimated 500 TONS PER MONTH and NOT selling.

     

    The GLOBAL amount of Gold that could still be mined, is estimated by the geologists at 50,000 TONS, ONLY...

     

    Do you see anything bearish from that ?

     

    Have a nice day :-)
    2 Apr 2013, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • chapa
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Yeah. That was the same guyand bank that forecast gold to 1,450 in 2011. After that it went to 1,950
    2 Apr 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • rw1270
    , contributor
    Comments (385) | Send Message
     
    "After that it went to 1,950..."
    ... and all the way back. They were actually right.
    2 Apr 2013, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • casper1918
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    For gold to go down, you must believe that the phony stockmarket rally is not the product of fiat money being pumped into our financial system to the tune of $85 billion a month. You must believe that printing more paper or digital currency without anything to back it up other than words is a true and valid economic principle. You must also believe the liars who tell you unemployment is at 7.7% and dropping..........and not believe those who tell you the true rate of unemployment is between 14-20 % and growing. As we are told the economy is growing, we are adding record numbers of people to food stamp and welfare programs which we can't afford. Gold is being manipulated just as the stock market is. The question will be how long can this go on and who will be the greater fool when the collapse occurs.
    2 Apr 2013, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • rw1270
    , contributor
    Comments (385) | Send Message
     
    It always cracks me up, when people interprete whatever recent events and market reaction. When it goes with their thesis it is "see, I told you so and the market is showing I'm right" and when goes against their thesis it is ALWAYS "the market is manipulated by evil JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and (substitute your own villain)". Doesn't matter who it is, gold bulls, gold bears, stock bulls, stock bears, real estate bulls, real estate bears, oil bulls, oil bears. There is no fail. The responses are ALWAYS the same.
    2 Apr 2013, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • casper1918
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    BBA in Finance and Economics Class of '73
    2 Apr 2013, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • tr4head
    , contributor
    Comments (330) | Send Message
     
    20 years from now, maybe sooner, this is part of what will be called the great "Obama Stock Market Con Job." The goal of our current administration and compliant Central and Regional Bankers/Wall Street Brokers is to lie to the American People re economic growth and low equity valuations. There is no objective evidence of either, you only have to look at the numbers and we all know something is dead wrong when commodities DON'T follow growth. Why? The simple answer is that commodity prices can't be faked - they go up and down with economic activity. We have faked the recovery.

     

    Why did this happen? You only have to know that we are in a game of survival with emerging markets, mainly SE Asia. Rather than try to improve our economy the old fashioned way (improve education, work ethics, small govt, low taxes and limited regulation) the wall streeters like this author are happy keeping things going merrily along with big govt/big business collaboration.

     

    The WSJ the other day finally admitted that the market bump under the Obama admin. has been entirely due to Wall Street pros. These pros are now wringing their hands wondering why the little guy has not jumped in? Simple - it will play out just like 2000. The last bump up, the big guys sell en masses and there is nowhere to turn. We know better and we won't be fooled again.
    2 Apr 2013, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • tr4head
    , contributor
    Comments (330) | Send Message
     
    Copper has basically been flat since Spring 2010.
    5 Apr 2013, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • smashdeb
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    How long can you print with NOTHING to back it up? Do I think gold and silver will go thru the roof, not right away, but when I started buying silver it was $8.00 an oz. I'll be 63 next week and plan on holding at least for the next 5 to 10 years.
    2 Apr 2013, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • Uncle Pie
    , contributor
    Comments (3360) | Send Message
     
    The Fed has added $3 trillion to its balance sheet in the past couple of years. It took 94 years for it to reach $1 billion! The experts tell us that the money the Fed is creating out of thin air to pay for all their bond purchases doesn't count because it's held as "reserves" by the banks and therefore isn't inflationary.
    The US has $50-$100 trillion of unfunded liabilities, depending on whose numbers you believe. The politicians can increase the supply of paper money at zero cost to any level they want. The gold mining industry is barely able to increase the supply of gold 1.5%/year. And yet at the moment Mr. Market has a preference for paper money over metal money! As the old saying goes, in the short run the market is a beauty contest, in the long run it is a weighing machine.
    2 Apr 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • ailnyckyj
    , contributor
    Comments (42) | Send Message
     
    Who is socgen? I never heard of him or them. Can some one tell me who it is.?
    2 Apr 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • craftyturtle
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    global French bank... Societe Generale
    2 Apr 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3288) | Send Message
     
    Société Générale is one of Europe's largest banks. Here is some recent history of their issues during the last financial crisis: "In January 2008, the bank Société Générale lost approximately €4.9 billion closing out positions over three days of trading beginning January 21, 2008, a period in which the market was experiencing a large drop in equity indices.[1] The bank states these positions were fraudulent transactions created by Jérôme Kerviel, a trader with the company. The police stated they lacked evidence to charge him with fraud and charged him with breach of trust and illegally accessing computers. Kerviel states his actions were known to his superiors and that the losses were caused by panic selling by the bank."

     

    Easy to blame someone else for your problems. Just ask J.P. Morgan and that London Whale from last year.
    2 Apr 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • 9532921
    , contributor
    Comments (219) | Send Message
     
    Meant to hit reply, not like. Kudos to your stats on the misclick.

     

    BShitting aside, here is some other recent history on SOCGEN:

     

    Their market cap is $20BB.

     

    What's your market cap, doug?
    2 Apr 2013, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3288) | Send Message
     
    What's J.P. Morgan's market cap 9532921, and what is their sub-investment derivative exposure?

     

    Gold and silver don't have to play games to look good like the banks who don't mark to market their assets with the full blessing of the FASB.

     

    Nice rigged game when you get the FASB to do you the favors eh? But who talks about sub-investment grade derivatives? And how did SocGen get in trouble again? Easy to blame an individual like a "london whale" eh?
    2 Apr 2013, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • 9532921
    , contributor
    Comments (219) | Send Message
     
    Sure, we need more transparency in the markets. I agree. Blah, blah, blah. Go vote. Write to your congressmen. But please don't just rant mindless conspiracies and expect to have yourself taken seriously.

     

    That said, gold and silver aren't playing the games - you and other gold bugs like you are. Please continue to hoard illiquid (without paying a huge vig) physical metals. Please continue to hype gold and silver. My puts are yearning for as precipitous a crash as possible.
    3 Apr 2013, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3288) | Send Message
     
    9532921, I back up everything I say with facts, not "mindless conspiracy." Those who try and reply with such acqusations simply have no recourse to refute what I say and thus try and claim intellectual authority by throwing the other into a conspiracy nut category. No one can do that to me. No one. And I'm not about to let you do it. Anyone who has read anything I have written in my book or my posts on my blog or SA know where I come from in my writings. You are new here. Try reading more of what I write before throwing out the conspiracy card in an attempt to make yourself look better.

     

    Next.

     

    You call me a "gold bug" and throw me in with "other" gold bugs. How am I like other gold bugs? Please enlighten me as to how I am the same when I am dollar bullish and have been cautioning my clients over the last year that gold and silver could be affected by a stronger dollar? I am a deflationist overall, while gold bugs are inflationist. How am I like the "others" again? Again, you are new here.

     

    I offer a fully liquid bid and ask price daily on the gold and silver products I sell. How are they illiquid?

     

    I think my conversation is over with you until you read some more. It's ok to make money on your PUTS. more power to you. Gold mining companies do it all the time.
    3 Apr 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • 9532921
    , contributor
    Comments (219) | Send Message
     
    Like I said, we need more transparency. I am a huge advocate for it. But I was responding to your specific comment about the "london whale." It's meaningless to talk about such topics, when they are A) inconsequential and B) invalidated. Yes, there were a lot of mistakes made. Some banks went out of business because of it. Some investors, small and big, lost a lot of money because of it. But we learn from our mistakes - including curbing manipulation.

     

    You think, in general, that gold is a powerful instrument for commerce, no? Your articles seem to indicate you believe in the lasting power of gold more than you do in fiat currencies. To me, this is in the world of gold bug. Maybe not the king of em', but definitely in the population.

     

    I said they are "illiquid (without having to pay a huge vig)." This means that, unless you want to pay through a huge spread, physical gold is illiquid. Prove me wrong, please. Here is your opportunity. What price can I buy from you right now and what price can I sell to you right now. Please provide a timestamp of your reply to the second.

     

    Of course they do. So do you after someone sells a huge physical position to you. Or do you actually hold it and all it's risk until a physical buyer comes to you? (I'm seriously hoping it's the latter and that you are a major phsyical holder. - and not cause its YOU, but because the more physical being held by individuals with little access to liquidity, the better for me!)
    3 Apr 2013, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3288) | Send Message
     
    95, I can easily prove and have in my articles that more sup-investment grade derivatives are on the books of the nations top banks today than at the height of the 2008 financial crisis. Who will be the counterparty to these trades? How does a London Whale trade go from $1 Billion in the beginning to $5.4 billion? Why the discrepancy? I can easily point fingers to the over $2 trillion of these that J.P. Morgan has on the books, more than the entire Market Cap of their company. You won't see anyone else discuss this, but I have for years, counting down the days to when the shoe drops.

     

    As far as what my articles indicate, it's called diversification. I leave a full 80% to 90% of one's portfolio to the "professionals." Gold and silver are insurance. Sure, some can profit from it, but they should be and are by most of my clients viewed as insurance.

     

    I like the challenge on my pricing. I wish more knew of it, but I don't solicit like the other gold dealers do. I do write good articles though.

     

    For Canadian Maple Leaf Gold coins I just did a trade this morning (large order 10 coins or more free shipping). Spot price of $1,574.40 and my cost was $1,605.85 plus a 1% commission of $16.06. Total was $1,621.91 - Buy back at that same spot price was $1,585.60 - 1% commission of $15.86 = $1,569.74 for a difference between buy and sell of $52.17 Trade was made at 6:50am PST.

     

    When you say "illiquid," I assume you are referring to the multitude of other gold dealers who sell numismatic, collectible, rare, semi-rare, European, etc. coins. I don't believe in those and don't sell those. But it doesn't stop Glenn Beck, Sean Hannity et al. from promoting those companies that charge 15% - 30% or more to buy them. The people who buy them come to me all the time upset with these gold dealers because I wrote a report about How Gold Dealers Rip You Off that exposes them.

     

    Mutual Funds still charge a fee for A shares. I am no different and priced well against my competition. I also guarantee lowest price.

     

    I drop ship all my orders from my suppliers and take no risk. I do advise my clients on what to buy and when based on my reading of the markets. Anyone who has read my articles on Seeking Alpha, as well as my own blog, know I can defend my articles and my understanding of the precious metals market, the economy, the Fed and what the data tells me.

     

    I haven't written my article calling the bottom yet. I am still dollar bullish (imagine that?). I am still in the deflation camp. My next book is called "Illusions of Wealth" and I have challenged CFA's, CFP's, Harvard Professor's, Dave Ramsey, Money Magazine, CNBC and many more over the years as to their understanding of this gold market. Lastly, I wrote a book about it called Buy Gold and Silver Safely and you can read the reviews on Amazon.com to see what others say about my understanding of the markets and the industry I was a part of for over 20 years before leaving it and starting my own bullion brokerage.

     

    Glad to see you are for transparency. I don't expect it. I mean when you have cats like Dodd and Frank write your reform bill giving the Fed oversight, you just gotta laugh.

     

    Thanks for the discourse and I do appreciate the discussion.
    3 Apr 2013, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • 9532921
    , contributor
    Comments (219) | Send Message
     
    I look forward to reading more of your articles. It will take me a lot to be convinced, though. Psychologically speaking, I don't see rich, successful, powerful people making the wrong decisions, in general. Again, we all make mistakes, but Sharpe ratios are talked about in every bank, everyday. I promise.

     

    I disagree that your clients should allocate 10-20% of their portfolio to gold (unless it's shorting it).

     

    Liquidity is not defined by commission. I am speaking about the spread in the instrument you are trading. The cost to your buyer was $1621.91. The spot price was $1574.40. That is 3% from spot. Right now, GLD is trading $0.01 wide - essentially at the spot price. That means, your buyer was willing to pay 3% +1% to buy physical gold. I'm sorry, but in my opinion, that is a bad idea.

     

    I need to read more about deflation. I just don't see it when almost all economic indicators are generally up and the world, per person, is only getting richer. Seems like a recipe for a lot of spending and growing.

     

    While I do not agree with most of Dodd and Frank's specific ideas, democrats have historically (post civil war) fought for transparency much harder than republicans. I applaud their misguided efforts.

     

    Thank YOU for the discourse.
    3 Apr 2013, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3288) | Send Message
     
    95, the $1,621.91 price included the 1% commission. You added it back again in your analysis. So essentially 3% cost. Many Mutual Funds charge more and some less for A shares.

     

    Psychology can change on a dime with any major event. Most people insure homes, cars, and life, and hope to never use it. Gold represents this type of "hope," for some. The track record for maintaining purchasing power hasn't been that bad as at least there is a return on the insurance of something you paid for it depending on entry and exit.

     

    GLD (which consider a trading vehicle) is trading at a discount to gold. Spot is $1,553.80 and GLD 150.31 as I type. Many of my clients sell GLD to buy the physical because with GLD one cannot take delivery. Also, with GLD there is no insurance and SLV has a custodian many don't like (J.P. Morgan) and GLD has HSBC as their custodian, both in the top 5 for sub-investment grade derivatives. People just want control of their wealth no matter what may come.

     

    Take care and glad we could keep it civil. I imagine you don't get too many people that can hang with you, lol. We can't claim to know everything, but I will be the first to call myself ignorant. There is much I don't know. But I do read a ton and try to share with people what I see.
    3 Apr 2013, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • 9532921
    , contributor
    Comments (219) | Send Message
     
    You're definitely right. I noticed that after I hit reply, unfortunately.

     

    That said, GLD charges 0.4%. I understand your concerns, although I obviously do not agree with them. So you have some clients literally buying physical, then selling GLD instantly locking in a 3% loss, just to create the position. And all because they think gold will skyrocket and there won't be enough physical product to fulfill the paper holders? That. is. CRAZY.

     

    "People just want control of their wealth no matter what may come."

     

    The conundrum here, for your clients, is that when gold continues to go down, they will actually see that they have less control of their wealth than they otherwise would have. I would hate to be the guy holding physical during a crash. Sounds like a recipe for a bunker made out of gold.....get it??? cause it's worthless and the gold hoarder is still scared so he builds an impenetrable golden bunker!!!

     

    I certainly don't know everything. I am just betting that I know more than you, hence my profile description.

     

    I'd say good luck to you, but for you, you really don't care about the price of gold or it's movements in your brokerage business - you just hope there is hype for as long as possible because volume is your friend, your lifeblood, your vig. And I think you for providing that service to real gold bugs.
    3 Apr 2013, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • 9532921
    , contributor
    Comments (219) | Send Message
     
    *thank
    3 Apr 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3288) | Send Message
     
    95, au contraire, I make money doing this, yes, but I also wrote a report called "When to sell" and my passion is to finish the book I have spent over 7 years on called "We the Serfs!" that would end my gold business. Either way, I personally come out ahead, but anyone who does business with me or reads my articles on my sites, knows my intent. What are the odds of my passion book being adhered to? Very slim. But I do have a plan that can be worked for the benefit of most. To claim I don't care is quite presumptuous. .

     

    I did read your profile description. When you have over 800 comments defending your position, and a few years of track record in writing and making good predictions on the markets and the economy, then we can compare notes as to your "bet."

     

    I have over 7 years having started writing on Richard Russell's bulletin board when he first had it in 2005/2006 before he shut it down. Right now, there is only one side for people to see. Readers can decide for themselves what to think based on what we present.

     

    On a side note, I have sold 142 Gold Canadian Maple Leafs and 1000 Silver Canadian Maple Leafs today. People like buying into the dip. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

     

    3 Apr 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • 9532921
    , contributor
    Comments (219) | Send Message
     
    I should read more books. Good luck with the 7-year project

     

    This Richard Russell? My apologies, I must plead ignorance - I've only had been in the market since '08 and wasn't a blog kind of researcher. Nowadays, though, how does one resist!?

     

    http://read.bi/10wyLgb

     

    Lastly, holy amazing. I'd like to invest in your business, kind sir. What is your ticker? You are a public company right? I mean, with all that risk you carry ;)
    4 Apr 2013, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3288) | Send Message
     
    95, yeah, that Richard Russel. Years ago I was referred to him by a 90 year old client from my former life as a financial advisor. Best thing that ever happened to me at that time.

     

    My company and how I run it is no one's business but mine. First rule in my book, tell no one anything.

     

    I was asked by a Venture Capital firm to become the CEO of a new gold and silver internet start up company, but why work for someone else?
    4 Apr 2013, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • 9532921
    , contributor
    Comments (219) | Send Message
     
    So he became a popular bear with some money backing him going into the financial crisis or something? Life is all about timing - congrats to you!

     

    I like that attitude. Except it assumes you know everything. What if me, 9532921, in all my glory, could increase your profit margin by a significant percent and you didn't know it? Wouldn't that be terrible. Kidding aside, success in business is most often dependent on help from others. Don't you think? Or are you far right and say each man makes his own self?

     

    Hours were too long? I can't image the brokerage takes TOO much man hours. Not asking - I know you wouldn't tell anyway.
    4 Apr 2013, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3288) | Send Message
     
    RR was took over Dow Theory via his published Barron's analysis about 50 years ago. He was advocating gold before anyone knew anything about a rise in price. He always says his proprietary PTI is smarter than he is. He's 86 now and still writes. Of late he has been in and out of DIA. I think he is out now since that article you posted came out the beginning of March.

     

    I hardly ever claimed I know everything. I do read a lot, but I am the first to admit there is much I don't know, the definition of ignorance. I have met many successful people who make much more than I can dream of. In my trading, my most successful month was a $30,000 gain on a $100,000 account (I explain how in my next book). I used to trade 1/16's and scalp all day long. I think my record was about 100 trades in one day. But I was an emotional trader back then, and learned a few lessons, mostly about myself.

     

    Interesting that you think the far right think each man makes his own self. Isn't that the Libertarian point of view?

     

    No, my father, who was a trader at the CBOT (2 letter badge on jacket), went through issues with his employer when they changed the rules on him midway through his career. I have worked hard to get to where I am. No need to give up that hard work to cater to someone else's needs or desire for their success where they or some board could "change" the rules on a whim. It's happened to others I know who thought they were in control and were ousted.

     

    Now, how about you? You hide behind a number and claim to "know marcro economics better than others." Are you one of these IMF people: Vladimir Klyuev, Phil de Imus, and Krishna Srinivasan, or Jeremy C. Stein or Martin Feldstein that you reference in your BIO articles? Interesting you reference Feldstein. I have criticized his view on gold in 2009 when gold was at $1,000 an ounce and he was bashing it.

     

    Anyway, I am well aware of those on SA who might play for "the team." Not sure if you are that person or not, but I know I can hang with anyone and point out why I see things differently. Doesn't mean I don't learn from people.
    4 Apr 2013, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • 9532921
    , contributor
    Comments (219) | Send Message
     
    I'm interested to read about the 30k day. When you say you scalped the 1/16's world but was an emotional trader, I find myself confused. I have always considered scalping a relatively risk-free trade.

     

    I would say republicans are close to that definition too. It's not just tea partiers who are against gov't spending to empower those born with less opportunity.

     

    While I certainly feel for your father, as I do for anybody who loses their job - it's no reason to never work for or with anyone. I work in the same industry as your father did. I hope, in my case, I will see the tide changing and change with it. There are some market makers from the NYSE floor who are top management at places like GETCO, and there are some who go on ZeroHedge and whine about computers. (I am not implying your father is in this category - what one has done/does/will do based his circumstances is their right).

     

    While I take your guesses at my identity as a compliment, you are definitely not on the right path. I am just a guy that bought into gold and the market when I got my first paychecks in last '08 early '09. Lucky timing. Now that I believe in the economic recovery, and have for a few months, I am shorting gold. I'll keep my the majority of my equity positions I created in 2009-present until I keel over, most likely.

     

    I am always happy to have the opportunity to learn. Life has been good to me - now to figure out how everyone can be born to the same opportunities I had.
    5 Apr 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3288) | Send Message
     
    95, Can't say on the 30k. Secret for now.

     

    Regarding emotions, I didn't just do the 1/16 scalps. I would get into a trade, add to the position once down and lose more because I was right and the market was wrong. Of course the market is never wrong. I have no emotions these days, lol. That was a long time ago. A buddy of mine used to say he had his wife next to him ready to stab him with a sharp skin piercing pin when he thought he was right when the market moved against him. It's like that.

     

    Regarding the lessons from my father, he didn't lose his job, they changed the rules on his income. It is more about control for me. I know how corporate America works as I have seen it with the people I sell to over the last 27 years I knew from the beginning I would get my education from working for various companies, but would then go on my own once I had an understanding. People buy from you, not your company (relationships). I don't want anyone controlling me and I have the freedom to do what I want, when I want, whether it is vacation or 4 day weekend or take a month or 6 off to travel (I can do my business from anywhere). Name me one company that allows you this type of freedom.

     

    My father stuck with it and ended up doing just fine. He retired at 60 and will be 79 this year.

     

    I am lucky to enjoy what I do. I don't call it work. I feel I am one of the few gold dealers who calls it like I see it and can explain my reasoning with facts, not talk of hyperinflation, etc. Even though you may call some of what I say "hype," I am extremely comfortable with how I have called these markets, being dollar bullish up until now, beginning in 2011.

     

    Where we go from here is anyone's guess, but I like my odds on being correct about gold and silver in the years to come, and that's what I write about. My intuition I told Avi yesterday, a person I respect but disagree on a couple areas, is that we are reaching the bottom. Still want to see the Market Makers scare us one more time in a big way though. That would signal the bottom for me. Hope we get there, but don't care if we take off from here either. I will be writing a bullish case article for the metals I think within the next couple months. We'll see.

     

    Good luck with the economic recovery. We'll see how long she lasts and whether it is indeed a house of cards, most likely by October.
    5 Apr 2013, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • alphacostadamos
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    Unfortunately for gold bugs market is undoubtedly fully manipulated in favor of stocks despite any logic argument.The trend is bearish.There for the only chance gold will catch up $1600 again is bad unemployment figures on Friday .Otherwise SocGen maybe right.
    2 Apr 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • wdwright
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    There are no longer any rules that are permanent and cannot be relied upon to make business or investment decisions. The rules change on a daily basis. The Constitution becomes more irrelevant as time passes. There is no restraint to the printing of dollars which will eventually result in hyperinflation. The Congress is composed of many individuals who base their decisions upon their effect on reelection. Not all but many. This cannot end well. Precious metals may be the last safe refuge. Nothing else can be predicted with any degree of certainty. The current administration seems to be deliberately tanking the economy. Returning to strict adherence to the Constitution and the limited powers granted by the states to the federal government is the only obvious solution to the current malaise in the stock market and the overreach of the administration.
    2 Apr 2013, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • jackscure
    , contributor
    Comments (43) | Send Message
     
    Funny- when you click on the link to the story about the Soc Gen saying. "Gold may have had its last hurrah... thanks to an improving US economy bringing with it a stronger dollar and higher interest rates..." - you get linked to a story that says, "There Are Already Signs That US Economic Momentum Is Sputtering Out..." Hysterical what uselessness causes markets to trade one way or another. The US Economy is in its 3rd bubble in 13 years and SCAMerica and the FRAUDULENT RESERVE canNOT keep the new bubble going for much longer.
    3 Apr 2013, 01:53 AM Reply Like
  • crashtestdummy
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    I am a PM bull at heart due to fundamentals but market can be irrational longer than most think. The gold and silver monthly charts are showing a falling wedge. I'd rather be rich than be right and will play with the big boys accordingly. Good luck to all.

     

    [img]http://bit.ly/XcCHm7[/img]

     

    [img]http://bit.ly/Z7FObF[/img]
    3 Apr 2013, 02:28 AM Reply Like
  • hummerh25
    , contributor
    Comments (99) | Send Message
     
    1550 next. Wouldn't take much to take it down to the 1375. If everyone heads for the door at the same time.
    3 Apr 2013, 11:12 AM Reply Like
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