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Outperforming today (and one wonders why they aren't green) are the mortgage REITs, as the weak...

Outperforming today (and one wonders why they aren't green) are the mortgage REITs, as the weak jobs number sends bond yields lower, and - presumably - their book values higher. NLY -0.6%, AGNC -0.8%, ARR -0.5%. CIM, CYS, and JMI just poke into positive territory. MORT -0.9%
Comments (10)
  • They need stability. The Fed uncertainty plays games with investors heads....the secret is that no matter what the Fed does, as long as ZIRP is in place...this sector can navigate.
    5 Apr 2013, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • The drop in the 10 year is definitely a negative drag on NLY and AGNC's stock price - especially when the 2 year is not dropping at the same rate. The spread is around 1.46 today - versus above 1.70 not too long ago...
    5 Apr 2013, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • This article http://bloom.bg/XYR6nz says that the yields should bounce back based on the 14 day relative strength index being below 30. Im hoping they do. Its been shown spreads have a greater influence than book value on the attractiveness of these investments with the recent QE3 drop back in September / November.
    5 Apr 2013, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • Perhaps we have become a little too spoiled or even too greedy. Yes the prices bounce up and down and yes the dividends have dropped which is no surprise if you looked at the 2013 projected earnings in 2012.

     

    Whatever the dividends are it is sure better than Bonds, Treasuries or CD's. YTD REIT's are still out performing the indexes so lets take what we can get and be satisfied.
    5 Apr 2013, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • It is just a game we are playing. We put our money in and let others play with it. We may win or we may lose. Just be thankful that we are able to have a few dollars to play with. If we pay attention & are not too greedy we may come out with more than we put in. Just don't over think how it all works.
    5 Apr 2013, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • Yep, a game, with scores and everything. But the MBS trade is a pretty recondite game, which is why I let mREIT management make a commission by playing it on my behalf.
    5 Apr 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • I bought AGNC during the fiscal cliff sell off and sold at $31.98 in Jan. I am in wait and see mode till I get back in preferably close to the fiscal cliff sell off levels that may not happen unless they miss the next quarter huge. ARR is in my personal penalty box till further notice.

     

    I just closed on a secured loan I made to a small business at 10% interest only for 15 months today and that is how I prefer to invest. Now, the stock market is hitting all time highs and that is historically not a good time to invest new money. I could be very wrong on this point taking into account today's unemployment report and the Fed QE infinity that will continue as a result.
    5 Apr 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • So, QE will continue, funding rates will stay near zero for the foreseeable future, and AGNC/MTGE will keep making money off the spreads (narrow as they are) and the dollar rolls. I see nothing today to change that. In fact, while we need to keep watch on the macros, the day-to-day sturm und drang of the market is pretty meaningless to the mREIT space.
    5 Apr 2013, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • I bought AGNC and i am happy to take the 15% dividend while it last. Where can you make this kind of a per cent. If it was up to our government we would not have any money to invest,We better make all we can before Obma care takes over.
    7 Apr 2013, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • Well, AGNC is now up. Anyway, the decreased bond yield is obviously a two edged sword so I am a bit mystified by this post in the first place.

     

    Earnings announcements make me nervous so I have a stop in on AGNC. Any reason not to be nervous?
    29 Apr 2013, 11:35 AM Reply Like
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