Seeking Alpha

Add Brian White to the growing list of Apple (AAPL -1.3%) fans who think a bigger iPhone is...

Add Brian White to the growing list of Apple (AAPL -1.3%) fans who think a bigger iPhone is needed. "We are being told that the minimum size needed by Apple is a 4.5-inch display on the iPhone; however, a 5-inch to 5.5-inch would be optimal," writes the Topeka analyst after talking with Chinese/Taiwanese suppliers. Also: Cowen sees more room for iPad growth in the U.S., citing encouraging survey data, and BTIG's Walter Piecyk, who recently upgraded Apple, thinks a new capital-allocation plan will be timed to coincide with a downbeat FQ2 report (results are due on April 23).
Comments (50)
  • This is ridiculous, not one mention on SA of the newst comscore report. AAPL gaining market share, Android losing some....

     

    http://on.barrons.com/...
    5 Apr 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Comscore estimates total smartphone user bases. That makes their data less useful for figuring out sales trends than Kantar Comtech's, which estimates actual phone sales:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    5 Apr 2013, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Also no mention that Apples operating system went up 4% while Googles Android share dropped.
    5 Apr 2013, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • Sorry Mr. Jhonsa, but your hyperlink is for a years worth of data from Feb 12 to Feb 13, which doesn't show the most recent trend like the 3 month rolling data of Comtech. It seems you are trying to justify your previous negative articles on Apple.
    5 Apr 2013, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • By the way, I also agree that many people will want a larger phone and when Apples DOES do that the only advantage Samsung has will be gone. For Apple to be beating Samsung in the latest in SPITE of a smaller phone shows the power the brand has.
    5 Apr 2013, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • You're wrong once again. Kantar provides data for calendar Q4 as well. Back in December, they estimated the iPhone's share for the 3 months ending Nov. 25 was 53.3%. Which is well above the 43.5% they estimate for the 3 months ending Feb. 28.

     

    http://bit.ly/10FgT02

     

    Also, there's nothing necessarily contradictory about Kantar and comScore's data. Kantar's estimate for the iPhone's sales share for the last 3 months is still above comScore's estimate for the iPhone's subscriber share. Thus the iPhone could have lost sales share on a Q/Q and Y/Y basis while still gaining subscriber share.

     

    "It seems you are trying to justify your previous negative articles on Apple."

     

    It seems like you're trying to spin every piece of data you find in a favorable light for Apple. And I've easily written more posts containing positive news/commentary about Apple than ones containing negative news/commentary.
    5 Apr 2013, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • There is nonsense in the comment " The suppliers said"..Really? is a portable device, where you put it? in your jeans ? in the front pocket of the shirt?.

     

    What YOU think and Mr.White that a bigger screen is necessary, why not then if bigger= better then ask for a Mini-I pad size, then you will be the winner....donĀ“t know of what...but the winner.
    5 Apr 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • It may be nonsense what "the suppliers said", but I, and many, many millions of people would like a larger screen iPhone. It's pointless and frustrating to access a website on an iPhone only to find the text literally microscopic. I was out of my home and office recently and tried to research orthopedic surgeons on my iPhone. A joke! Microscopic text. So I have to carry a phone for calls and apps and an iPad to surf the web.

     

    Half the people on earth are female and they don't carry their phones around in their Brooks Brothers dress shirt pockets, or even in their skinny jeans. Most people I know arrive at work and put their phone down on their desks. The continual "shirt pocket" clique mystifies me -- who are all you guys in pink button-downs and skinny jeans??

     

    I can easily fit a Samsung big screen in my pants pockets (I tried it with a friend's) but I don't want to abandon Apple. Apple seems to have abandoned me, as evidenced in their statements that they know what the right size for a smart phone is and that's that. It's all the arrogance of Steve Jobs telling folks that they were holding their iPhones wrong during antennagate, without any of the corrective measures.

     

    As for being a winner, many people have posited that a voice-enabled iPad mini would be THE ideal device, a merger of the mute pad and the unreadable phone.
    5 Apr 2013, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • I am far from anyone who wears skinny jeans and am older and hate wearing glasses. I have no issues working with the current size iPhone surfing web sites, reading e-mails, etc...Even with a Samsung you need to adjust your size to navigate web pages. Nor do I put my phone on my desk when I arrive at work, it is a portable device and intended to be carried. I recently upgraded phones and stayed with the 4S, due to the larger size of the 5. I don't want to carry a bigger phone.
    5 Apr 2013, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • I agree, but the trouble is that if you add ten dollars to the cost of making an iPad mini into a calling device, how can you double the price to customers?
    5 Apr 2013, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • It appears that most of the solid-fact info on Apple in the last few days has been positive, but sentiment remains bearish. In days past Apple would have jumped on the comscore report. Most troubling is that Apple continues to be recalcitrant.
    5 Apr 2013, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • apple has lost favor with the markets its no longer the talk of the town... we'll get used to it.
    5 Apr 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Yup, Apple could post a 1 trillion dollar profit next quarter and the stock would drop because of fears they wouldn't earn 2 trillion the quarter after that.
    5 Apr 2013, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Not all good news out there. New FB "home" phone might pull diehard FB fans away and seeing that there over 1B FB users even a small amount could be felt. Have BestBuy with their new Samsung "stores". France coming out and saying iphone demand is lower for various reasons etc etc.

     

    Only thing that matters is Q3 guidance in my opinion. I am assuming a Q2 miss but hopefully not too bad. We need CM to kick in Q3.
    5 Apr 2013, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • soon a amazon phone , then a ebay phone, then a priceline phone, how about a walmart phone all have large amount of eyeballs daily, doesn't mean they will flourish by homescreening....having adds scrolling across get in the way of my phone activities would be a major pain...
    5 Apr 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • Don't forget there are 500 million itunes accounts. Much more meaningful than the 1 billion facebook accounts as customers have spent over 20 billion on non-transferable content in AAPL's ecosystem. They have spent ZERO in Facebook's ecosystem.
    5 Apr 2013, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • @jackbaker exactly....fb's followers are mainly teens on family cell plans usually scraping up a few bucks to hit a cheap fast food outlet after school with their friends with very little extra money to spend imo.....itunes requires a real credit card ...
    5 Apr 2013, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • AAPL made a mistake when they failed to offer choice and the stock price reflects it. Some people genuinely want bigger screens on their phone even if AAPL doesn't want them to want that.

     

    Why not have multiple sizes to satisfy everyone?

     

    This reminds me of the old Model T analogy: You can have any color you want as long as it is black.

     

    This company needs to become a lot more nimble again.
    5 Apr 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • we don't care. we don't have to. we're apple
    5 Apr 2013, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Yup. Aapl arrogance has prevented it from offering what consumers want. The best example was Steve jobs trashing the idea of a smaller iPad. Now they are going to follow instead of lead and probably release a bigger iPhone after already having eaten crow and released a smaller iPad
    6 Apr 2013, 06:57 AM Reply Like
  • Some like 4.5 some,like 5 can't they produce both?wouldnt seen like a big production issue.....clothes cars houses all come in different sizes ...pocketbooks like choices...
    5 Apr 2013, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mr. White needs a reason to explain why AAPL did not hit the $1,111 price target that he predicted.
    5 Apr 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • when it goes to 1111 drinks are on me...
    5 Apr 2013, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • Apple has had a problem with denial in the past. They were in denial over the mini for years, and they finally brought one out, and now they can't make enough. They are in denial over a bigger phone, too. What is funny to me is that T. Cook has implied that a bigger phone is too big to work with one hand, while S. Jobs said the mini size iPad was too small to work with two hands! Pretty funny. They will roll one out some day. Apparently, they believe they can only rollout one form factor every two years. Like 11.6" through 15.6" and in between in the Macbook realm, it isn't the same answer for every customer.
    5 Apr 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • "A new capital allocation will be timed to coincide with a downbeat FQ2 report." Really? I hope you didn't burn to many brain cells arriving at that conclusion. The real question is a "Will a dividend increase and/or stock buyback put a new floor under the stock and prevent a repeat of January's collapse after earnings." The answer "probably not" unless you add something to the mix and I'm not thinking I-Radio.
    5 Apr 2013, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • it should be this simple,

     

    iPhone 5 - 4 inches
    iPhone 6 - 4.5 inches
    iPhone 6+ - 5 inches
    Ipad Mini - phone capable through Bluetooth, speaker or headphones.

     

    Done.
    How hard is that?
    5 Apr 2013, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • But to make the most profit apple would want to sell an iPhone + iPad to the same customer. If they made the mini phone capable (would be a great product) but you would just hear about it cannibalising phone sales which will not be good for the share price.
    5 Apr 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • I disagree. There is no way that some will have an ipad mini as their only phone. Some women maybe because they could keep it in their purse, but no man could carry around an Ipad mini as a phone. You have both that use the same phone number... somehow.
    8 Apr 2013, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • Bottom line there are many out there that would like a larger phone, I am not one of them but I do feel that Apple COULD offer phone size options. They dont all have to be the same size. Have a quailty phone with 50%+ margins in both sizes and everyone is happy.

     

    I hope the current price already has a Q2 miss baked into it and then a new cap. structure just shoots the price back up to the high 400's, new products released and we are back into the mid to high 500's hopefully higher - imho.
    5 Apr 2013, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • If you buy AAPL, you are betting on a company with 0 debt, massive profits, $130B or so in the bank, and whose products make people line up on street corners to buy them. It's products are synonyms for the categories they play in - no flight attendant ever told you to turn off your GalaxyTabs. We've never seen anything like this in the history of business, short of a run on oil boosting XOM or something.

     

    The secrecy and wondering makes for a nervous hold, but more than anything listed above you are betting on network effects and fundamental human behaviors as they relate to technology. There's a reason why MSFT still has 90% or so of the PC market after all these years, and why iOS never helped AAPL make much of an inroad there - there are too many network effects built up around MSFT on the desktop.

     

    AAPL has these in spades already. Android apps are always developed as afterthoughts to iOS versions, and BBRY isn't even worth mentioning. When AAPL eventually reinvents the TV, it adds to the self-fulfilling prophecy of consumer technology dominance. Nobody does hardware better, and nobody is positioned like AAPL to built a MSFT-like network effect around the personal consumer tech industry like they do.
    5 Apr 2013, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • I have a hard time understanding why any American would be buying a cheaper plastic Korean phone subject to more malware and bugs from a foriegn company like Samsung when it is run by a convicted felon that stole American technology.

     

    And then just today we find ANOTHER instance of theft by Samsung:

     

    http://bit.ly/14Kd7cv
    5 Apr 2013, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • For the same reason they buy cheap Chinese crap. They think they're getting a bargain.
    5 Apr 2013, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • I'm going to go out on a limb here and say those people think that what they are buying is better than what you are selling....

     

    just a thought
    5 Apr 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • http://ubm.io/12pfst7

     

    Why Is The iPhone Made In China?

     

    Jacob Lopez, BYTE | April 25, 2012 01:30 PM

     

    Category: Tablets, Smartphones

     

    As most of us very well know, our iPhones and iPads, as well as most of our consumer electronics, are made in China. This is where factories such as Foxconn's iPad and iPhone manufacturing facilities are located. iFixit recently took a look into why the devices are built in China. There isn't any one reason, rather a combination of factors that come into play as to why your favorite 10-inch tablet is built there.
    5 Apr 2013, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • OH yes there isApple, Dell, HP.Nike etc etc. Its called exploiting labor or capitalism, its been around; labor being for most your biggest cost Read Wealth of Nations first published around the time of constitution. Nothing new . Most of the 500 companies who make up the S&P do the same thing.
    5 Apr 2013, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • Yes, lots of reasons to build stuff in China, including the potential of being the largest market for their products. Also, the potential largest market for a 5 inch phone.One has to keep in mind the smartphone may be the only computer many in China can afford to buy.My Chinese Broker has just returned from China and says Chinese love Apple products, but noticed on trains,most of the kids were using large screen phones.
    5 Apr 2013, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • OK. You are certianly entitled to your opinion but I resent the fact that we support and prevent S. Korea from being turned into a parking lot by N Korea with our tax dollars and they turn around and support a company that steals U S technology. Let S Koreans buy their own crap and defend themselves. Unless the pnones were that much better (and they are not) why subsudize Korean cos instead of U S companies. Buy American!
    6 Apr 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • rocback,
    can we really call it US technology? I mean Apple has hundreds if not thousands of scientists/engineers/c... guys that probably range in nationalities and birth places.
    6 Apr 2013, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • sure we can...a lot more than Samsung, a Korean company run by a convicted felon.
    7 Apr 2013, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • so if i told you everyone who was involved with building the iphone was korean you would still call it american?

     

    thanks for the insight
    7 Apr 2013, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • iPhone 5" sign me up!
    5 Apr 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • @rocback agree ...why do Americans support a dishonest foreign competitor....makes absolutely no sense....
    5 Apr 2013, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • If apple wants the old folks to buy a new IPhone they need to come out with a 5 or 5.5inch screen. I have an IPhone5 and have been looking at the Galaxy for screen size.
    5 Apr 2013, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • Screen size is my biggest issue with Iphones....
    5 Apr 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • aapl is done, the ONLY thing that can save them is aapl tv. no one cares about new phones, or iwatch.
    5 Apr 2013, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • AAPL doesn't need bigger screens or cheaper phones, just to continue to redefine product categories using their own network effects and the human factors inertia of their platforms.

     

    Look at all the charts and financials you want, but a long term bet against AAPL is going against some of the most fundamental laws of human computer interaction, and decades of evidence that fragmented platforms (Android) eventually collapse/stagnate under their own weight.
    5 Apr 2013, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • Apple badly needs a 5-inch phone, in addition to continuation of the offering with current dimensions of iPhone5.
    A significant proportion of customers prefer the current size of their latest offering. However, an increasing number of mobile phone users are showing a preference for the larger screen; nowhere is this more obvious as it is in Asia, where many previous iPhone users have chosen to move to the larger offerings from Samsung, for just one reason - screen size!
    Apple needs to re-capture these reluctant converts, in addition to preventing further erosion of its base, and, dare I say, winning over a few poor Samungites!
    The sooner, the better!!
    I remain long AAPL.
    5 Apr 2013, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • the phone is more of a a computer than a phone .....personally I spend major percentage of time on ipad than iphone.. but if fifty billion people want a 5 inch screen make one available!!!.... Mcdonalds makes drinks in small medium and large for a reason it is just a bigger cup .....
    5 Apr 2013, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • What's going to differentiate Apple from the competition (android mostly) is build quality and software reliability. Buy an android phone only if you're prepared to accept disadvantages in one area or another - limited software updates, need for anti-virus software ( yes - a phone!! ) or application issues like skype for android.
    5 Apr 2013, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • Apple listens closely to the Chinese market via their Asian suppliers. Whatever White heard or thought he heard has already been passed on to Cupertino.
    8 Apr 2013, 02:28 AM Reply Like
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