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A Goldman Sachs note helps explain some of the recent weakness in big bank stocks and adds a...

A Goldman Sachs note helps explain some of the recent weakness in big bank stocks and adds a warning signal: Banks that gain more than 10% in Q1 usually give back nearly all those profits in Q2 when future earnings estimates begin falling. Goldman's top concern heading into Q1 earnings is that "lackluster fundamentals could lead to a negative EPS revision cycle (which has been the trend the past few years)."
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Comments (5)
  • joker
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    Wow! Goldman is becoming a technical analysis house - according to this article. Pretty soon, Goldman will give out forecast / predictions based on Dow Theory, Elliot Wave, all those chart patterns and astrology as well.

     

    My dog could do that better.
    9 Apr 2013, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • John Naccarelli
    , contributor
    Comments (197) | Send Message
     
    If I flip a coin three times in a row and it comes up heads every time, what is the probability that I will flip heads the next time? Hmmm, you guessed it, it is still a 50/50 chance. It is the concept of an independent event and too many analysts (aka ANALists) need to go back and study statistics, correlations, etc.
    9 Apr 2013, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • Btaleski
    , contributor
    Comments (18) | Send Message
     
    WHY would you trust GS ???????????
    10 Apr 2013, 05:17 AM Reply Like
  • gwynfryn
    , contributor
    Comments (4330) | Send Message
     
    They are pretty much the last people I'd trust; after all, they are hardly putting out these "warnings" out of the goodness of their hearts, right?

     

    This time, they may well be right, though (coincidence?); most of the fortune 500 companies may be making record profits, still, but there is otherwise no substance to these high prices, with most areas of the economy struggling, unemployment getting worse, the house market giving every sign of being another bubble (will we ever learn?) and most investing going into big caps. This latter in particular, is not a healthy sign!

     

    I'm not saying it'll happen overnight, but we keep going through these boom/bust cycles, with ever increasing enthusiasm it seems, and nobody is even discussing the needed changes to how capitalism is operated, which is the only way we'll ever get off this roller coaster.

     

    As I've mentioned before, this is the collapse of Rome, all over again, with the elites protecting their privileges above all else, with no thought to the fact that it's their excesses that are causing the system to fall apart...

     

    We're doomed, I tell you!
    10 Apr 2013, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • Burnsidp
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Having worked in a English bank for long time at high level, my suggestion would be to short UK banks as they are being asked to return all capital back to the UK market and daily publishing mea culpa stories in the FT.
    Buy the US banks which will be taking all the market share being discarded by the UK banks in the USA
    10 Apr 2013, 09:28 AM Reply Like
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