Analysts see First Solar's (FSLR) 45% run-up yesterday following upside guidance as overdone....


Analysts see First Solar's (FSLR) 45% run-up yesterday following upside guidance as overdone. "Efficiency roadmap promising but the history makes us cautious," CSFB says. It's "the best house in a bad neighborhood," Jefferies says, maintaining its $30 price target. Pacific Crest is "highly skeptical of the target model." No upgrades, tame target raises. Shares -6% premarket.

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Comments (2)
  • jbde
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    I'm sorry - I listened/watched the presentation and came away with one impression - smoke and mirrors.

     

    They proposed the most optimistic scenario one could - thus it will not be achieved.
    They generously said they would takeover poly-si in 2016 under 'ideal' circumstances.

     

    But the most interesting fact is that they have still failed to add bookings to complete 2013. There is still uncertainty that it will occur.

     

    Despite the 'economic condition' of competitors highlighted by FSLR, they are still booking ample business.
    Plant customers will likely still choose poly-si as the best economic choice NOW and through at least 2015 based on FSLR's own projections of competitiveness.

     

    Use the huge run-up to short or buy puts IMHO.
    10 Apr 2013, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • Upyourassets
    , contributor
    Comments (272) | Send Message
     
    I still believe FSLR has the best business model and tech. The fact that they continue to make money while the poly-si companies are losing money and declaring bankruptcy supports my position. The piece that has been missing is competitiveness in the roof-top market. With the acquisition of TetraSun, FSLR will have much needed poly-si tech for that market. With their strong balance sheet and earnings, no one is in a better position in solar.

     

    I will agree that the call yesterday was too rosy; but that is the companies job, to put the best light they can on their business. Investors certainly overreacted and that caught the shorts flat-footed, but imho the stock has been undervalued for some time. Obviously, I am not the only one to think so. That being said, I took the opportunity yesterday to cover my long position with some calls at a very nice premium. I am more than happy to lower my cost basis and hold on for what is likely to be a bumpy ride.
    10 Apr 2013, 09:52 AM Reply Like
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