Global PC shipments fell 13.9% Y/Y in Q1 to 76.9M units, per IDC. That surpasses Q4's 6.4% drop...

Global PC shipments fell 13.9% Y/Y in Q1 to 76.9M units, per IDC. That surpasses Q4's 6.4% drop and Q3's 8.6% decline, and is steep even in light of IDC's recent commentary. IDC: "It seems clear that the Windows 8 (MSFT) launch not only didn’t provide a positive boost to the PC market, but appears to have slowed the market." H-P (HPQ) was the market's leader, but its share fell 200 bps Y/Y to 15.7%. #2 Lenovo (LNVGY.PK) saw its share rise 210 bps to 15.3%, and #3 Dell's rose 40 bps to 11.8%. Apple's (AAPL) U.S. share rose 60 bps to 10%, though U.S. Mac shipments fell 7.5% to 1.4M.

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Comments (33)
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (4365) | Send Message
    Tomorrow blood will cover the streets and it will be Magnificent


    It was fun MSFT, the last 2 days that is...
    10 Apr 2013, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • Yokyok
    , contributor
    Comments (327) | Send Message
    and remember...
    if you don't like Windows 8 it's because you just didn't try hard enough
    10 Apr 2013, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • eh791114
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
    I bought two intel 22 puts expiring on this Friday for $11 each. Maybe I just made my lunch money for tomorrow
    10 Apr 2013, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • Valuable Insights
    , contributor
    Comments (478) | Send Message
    PCs in massive secular decline. $MSFT is a value trap. $DELL longs should be thankful to be taken out. Got to love companies levered to mobility. We are still in early innings of the tablet trend, wait a couple more years - feature sets will be even richer, usage models more evolved.
    10 Apr 2013, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • Sal Marvasti
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
    lol, microsoft is cloud tools and mobile. read the citi research
    10 Apr 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • ConservativeOutperformer
    , contributor
    Comments (750) | Send Message
    How is the future for tablets any different than that for PC's? They last for years, each new device doesn't do anything different than the older versions, margins are declining and upgrade cycles are lengthening.....


    This is a perfect example of a business scenario that has popped up plenty of times in the history of American enterprise.... A new industry brings spectacular products into everyday life and for awhile there are some players who make a lot of money (AAPL in mobile, MSFT/INTC with PC's, F with cars). Eventually, everyone else figures out how to compete (Samsung in mobile) and the race to the bottom is on..... The only true beneficiaries are the people and businesses using these products... Tablets and mobile devices will share this same fate, it is a certainty. It's just a question of when, and you are correct..... AAPL is in the early innings of this same trend. revenue, profit and margins will go down for years and years to come.


    Good luck!
    10 Apr 2013, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (2771) | Send Message
    Actually, Apple got hit twice today and it was worse than Wintel. Their laptop sales were down according to IDC. And, Foxconn announced that sales were down a staggering 19%--that is more than the PC drop! Analysts are attributing it to poor iPhone sales, but there have been many reports about iPad 4 sales imploding. About 3/4ths of the noise is from analysts and it is based on estimates, not real numbers, so I question them! However, I think part of the problem is real. Likely fueled by gadget $$ exhaustion. We are being bombarded with neat gadgets and people don't have the money to keep buying new versions. I think Apple is very vulnerable to cheap phones overseas, and it will eventually hit the US, too. But, all of these news stories on guestimates appear sensationalized to get clicks from the unsuspecting.
    10 Apr 2013, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • Derek A. Barrett
    , contributor
    Comments (3554) | Send Message
    Well said ConservativeOutperformer and Humble Eagles. Apple raised the bar from a reliability and engineering standpoint for the technology hardware industry to where it SHOULD have been for decades. So now that the devices are much more reliable, and the new features so incremental, it makes no sense to upgrade and waste money.


    This just tells me the commodity cycle is well underway for over a year now.


    The market, at least in the US, is pretty much exhausted for new buyers, since most people have smart phones now. The upgrade from iPhone 4 to iPhone 5 wasn't really a big upgrade, so not much incentive to do it, and Samsung's new offering as well was just not groundbreaking.
    11 Apr 2013, 12:53 AM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (4365) | Send Message
    So the question is will Windows Blue start a new up-cycle?
    11 Apr 2013, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • mikeurl
    , contributor
    Comments (826) | Send Message
    There is a reason INTC has a decade long channel that runs from 18 to 26. We'll see 18 before we see 26 again...patience. Buy INTC below 20, sell above 24...retire early.
    10 Apr 2013, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • Doyle3000
    , contributor
    Comments (2014) | Send Message
    collect the 3% dividend and sell calls each month. INTC is money in that range. i do the same thing you do.
    10 Apr 2013, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • jjmc2001
    , contributor
    Comments (1358) | Send Message
    I have been selling & buying puts & calls on INTC for the last year. The trading range is your friend.
    10 Apr 2013, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • capital pains
    , contributor
    Comments (219) | Send Message
    All this absurd amount of love shown INTC these past two weeks from the herd of talking heads in the Wall Street related media will at least be modified now. While I think the Goldman PT of $16 seems ridiculous, I would like to add to my INTC long position in the $19's. MSFT has basically been dead money for years now, and INTC has also been in MSFT'S parallel dead money universe...
    The 4.2% dividend has kept a floor on INTC's stock price. Hopefully, their dreaded April 16th report will turn out much worse than expected. It's time now for the over-the-top cheerleading to stop. Agreed, collecting the dividend and selling calls still woks out fine while we wait.
    10 Apr 2013, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • GRJ
    , contributor
    Comments (324) | Send Message
    Why is it that WS is so fixated on the demise of AAPL? It looks more like MSFT is far more vulnerable to disappear.
    10 Apr 2013, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (2771) | Send Message
    Intel didn't warn, so that calls the accuracy of these guestimates into question (assuming INTC doesn't miss). They don't track the EM "White Box" makers well and price sensitivity is likely moving business in that direction. This seems to happen every qtr, where we get the lowball estimates and the big tech firms end up doing fine. We'll see.
    10 Apr 2013, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Pendulum
    , contributor
    Comments (468) | Send Message
    Amazing numbers and adds to my concerns about Microsoft for the long term:

    10 Apr 2013, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • MajorDude
    , contributor
    Comments (280) | Send Message
    Apple's 10% market share is their largest since 1993.


    It is naive to count the importance of the PC out. Clearly smart phones and tablets are spreading the data consumption workload out - but you still need a computer to generate anything.


    All of this works most obviously to IBM and Apple's favor and against Microsoft and HP. It proves just how shortsighted Carly Fiorina's bet was on Compaq.
    10 Apr 2013, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • GotLife
    , contributor
    Comments (1377) | Send Message
    Carly wasn't merely shortsighted but blinded. Her decision, along with her cohort in crime Patty Dunn, helped save Barclay millions by recycling those Compaq shares to HPQ. Then they both made millions, Carly 120 if I remember right. She wouldn't recognize technology if a rack of it fell on her head. But a dollar? She would do anything for her personal enrichment.
    10 Apr 2013, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • Bob Curtin
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
    The Compaq acquisition was 11 years ago which is a lifetime in technology. HPQ lost its way when Mark Hurd spent 5 years improving eps by gutting R&D.
    10 Apr 2013, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • patt2374
    , contributor
    Comments (733) | Send Message
    How will this affect UNXL? I have my entire savings tied up in their magic technology.
    10 Apr 2013, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • levin70
    , contributor
    Comments (1071) | Send Message
    PC sales are not down because of windows 8. PC sales are down because people, including businesses don't need to replace 3 year old machines like they did 5 or 10 years ago. Those 3 year old machines are running just fine. Our office just replaced its servers and laptops. They averaged 7 years old, including the servers. If our machines were only 3 years old, we would not have replaced them.
    10 Apr 2013, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • dividend_growth
    , contributor
    Comments (2895) | Send Message
    Which means Win 8 failed to what it tried to achieve: getting people back on the upgrade treadmill.


    Given today's alternatives, it's absolutely a waste of money to cough up $100+ for Windows and $200+ for Office. Microsoft will be lucky to push them for $15 and $30 in not so distant future, and that's the mother of all margin compressions!
    10 Apr 2013, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • berylrb
    , contributor
    Comments (2378) | Send Message
    That's a good point Levin70, the main thing to keep updated is software, Office is kind of bloated, but every now and then an update has a rich tool.
    10 Apr 2013, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • Derek A. Barrett
    , contributor
    Comments (3554) | Send Message
    That wasn't the point dividend_growth, the point was touchscreens and unifying the ecosystem across the same OS.
    11 Apr 2013, 12:24 AM Reply Like
  • wiesje
    , contributor
    Comments (2846) | Send Message
    MSFT: one of the final chances to get in below 30$ - will be trading at 32,50/35,00$ second half of the year - also buy Nokia, it will be MSFT's in the near future at $3,50 it's got the best upward potential of all smart phone makers, the only one likely to double in price in the next 12 to 18 months.


    Short: Gold, EURO
    11 Apr 2013, 12:00 AM Reply Like
  • Derek A. Barrett
    , contributor
    Comments (3554) | Send Message
    Nokia was up 5% and change today, put selling at 3.5 and 3 here
    11 Apr 2013, 12:04 AM Reply Like
  • Derek A. Barrett
    , contributor
    Comments (3554) | Send Message
    Cool, hope there is blood in the streets, will load up even more, go long, sell puts, profit
    11 Apr 2013, 12:03 AM Reply Like
  • lecso
    , contributor
    Comments (150) | Send Message
    Derek..You are selling puts on what stock?
    11 Apr 2013, 12:21 AM Reply Like
  • Derek A. Barrett
    , contributor
    Comments (3554) | Send Message
    INTC and MSFT, both are slammed today after the IDC PC shipment sales decline report.


    Good opportunity :)
    11 Apr 2013, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • stockcrashtestdummy
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
    Microsoft messed up big time in the past 12 months. They made some bad assumptions:
    1. Customers were ok with a phone interface for their PCs. People want new functionality, but Win 3.1 should have taught them people want a way to see it in the old way (aka classic mode).
    2. Competing with your biggest customers (HP, Lenano, Dell) with their surface tablet and not thinking they were going to take exception to it was arrogance. Now all these companies are releasing Chromebooks, Linux tablets etc.
    3. They could take as long as they wanted and not do a great job quality testing before a new release. Win8 was way late. In the past, tough, you have no where else to go but MS. Now Apple and Google have changed that game.




    MS pumped the dog for sure on the enterprise refresh using Win8, but maybe a lot of you missed the message last week that in 12 months Vista is no longer supported.


    Corporations are not going to be able to hold their breath much longer. They have to have a supported IT strategy for their desktop/laptop folks as they cannot risk their operations going down. Most are not going to move to Win7 with Win8 out and they are not going to rewrite for Apples at this late stage, never mind having to lose all the investment they have made in desktop code.


    But Win8 has that stupid phone UI that is pissing folks off more than the new Office UIs. If they can get Blue out the door which makes it easy to hide the phone UI, they have a chance of getting back in the game.


    Either way, when is Gates going to cut his losses and fire Ballmer? His arrogance got them into this mess. Screw saving Africa. How about saving Microsoft Bill??? Time to pull a Steve Jobs and can that idiot CEO you crowned.


    And folks are going to be updating their corporate PCs before they replace their iPhone 4S for a iPhone 5 or 6. Same o/s, different size... Where is the ROI?


    Expect the numbers of PCs to reverse fast with blue (aka 8.1) as the corporations start their refresh. May be the last hurrah for PCs, but it will last 3-4 years if you watch technology life cycles.
    11 Apr 2013, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • Origa
    , contributor
    Comments (623) | Send Message
    The ROI with Windows 8 was Sinofsky getting fired.


    Otherwise it was a complete disaster and Steve Ballmer is to blame, he only looked at 400 Million new Windows 8 devices in 2013.


    The Microsoft Company more and more looks a US government agency that tops inefficiency and laziness.
    11 Apr 2013, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • altaire4
    , contributor
    Comments (117) | Send Message
    MSFT does have one Bright Spot .... XBOX 360 with Kinect. I suspect that Mr.Ballmer spends alot of time playing games because his Windows 8/Tablet strategy was seriously flawed. MSFT = Dead Money !
    12 Apr 2013, 01:56 AM Reply Like
  • wiesje
    , contributor
    Comments (2846) | Send Message
    dead money ? MSFT is finally awakening from it's 10 year sleep and sideways movement - yday was just a WS shuffle to give the boys the opportunity to get in on the game, the stock 2 days ago almost galloped away without them, they can be wrong once , but never twice, so this PC news came as a gift from heaven, they got their analysts to put on a downgrade on top of that and a wave of selling hit the stock and the boys are in, now the numbers can come out next week and they will be OK and this whole sell off was yet another WS shuffle.
    buy MSFT and see the stock back at 30 $ plus by the end of the month.
    12 Apr 2013, 02:23 AM Reply Like
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