Seeking Alpha

Several U.S. retailers have seen a pickup in Z10 returns, says Detwiler Fenton in a note that...

Several U.S. retailers have seen a pickup in Z10 returns, says Detwiler Fenton in a note that could be pressuring BlackBerry (BBRY -5.2%). Detwiler, which also issued a downbeat note on Z10 demand last month, adds the pace of returns in some cases is exceeding the pace of sales, and that users are complaining about the Z10's UI, Maps app, and app availability. Separately, Amazon has cut its subsidized Z10 price to $99. (AT&T launch)
From other sites
Comments (47)
  • Guest Eh
    , contributor
    Comments (419) | Send Message
     
    The farther we get from actual BBRY financials and factual reports, the farther the stock slides away from reality. I am long and not worried. Hang in there guys. The rewards are going to be worth the expected bumpy ride.
    11 Apr 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Alphabetsy
    , contributor
    Comments (93) | Send Message
     
    This is another shorts jab and run.
    Where is the reference of facts for "some" ?
    11 Apr 2013, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • DIgitalMediaView
    , contributor
    Comments (668) | Send Message
     
    Keep in mind Detwiler also tried to make the 1M BB10 device order go away by saying Verizon was using Brightstar to manage inventory risk, a completely speculative and nonsensical claim, in that Brightstar is the world's largest specialized wireless distributor and not some lackey middleman. Not credible.
    11 Apr 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • User 7109031
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    I have a z10 and the only regret is I'm thinking that maybe I should have waited on the "Q". BB 10 is great and I'm not disappointed at all in the new OS, I'm not a big app person so that short-coming doesn't
    bother me at all and that will be corrected with time. I also have a Nexus 7, with Jelly Bean 4.2 and BB10 is just as good in my opinion, in some areas I like BB better. Yeah, it took me a while to be comfortable with no "home like" buttons but I like that now. No battery problems at all, runs all my long day --6:AM to 10:PM....Hang in there.
    11 Apr 2013, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • cvdeaner
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    What a perfect opportunity to add to my position! Long BBRY!
    11 Apr 2013, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • ELLAS
    , contributor
    Comments (1698) | Send Message
     
    Agreed.
    How about the massive Android and iPhone returns? This is absolutely nothing new, though I can easily see one or two stores with more than normal Z10 return rates and these analysts using these one or two stores as a false example of all other stores in the US.
    Show us hard facts, something that is highly unlikely. The Z10 is selling strong whether they like it or not. The Black is back.
    11 Apr 2013, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • Guest Eh
    , contributor
    Comments (419) | Send Message
     
    How could returns possibly outpace sales? Sounds a tad fishy and possibly self serving.
    11 Apr 2013, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • jbde
    , contributor
    Comments (666) | Send Message
     
    After many days of purchases, returns on a given day could exceed new sales for the same day.

     

    So not quantifiable as a bad thing - could simply be normal.
    Thus article is total BS as it is not quantified.
    11 Apr 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Guest Eh
    , contributor
    Comments (419) | Send Message
     
    jbde, What you are speculating regarding returns exceeding sales makes sense to me. Thanks for your insight.
    12 Apr 2013, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • MorganBucks
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    Gee if returns are exceeding sales Z10's gross margin will go up as the those that exceed sales cost $0!
    11 Apr 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • kherman
    , contributor
    Comments (792) | Send Message
     
    Again, this is an issue for 5% of the world ... the USA.
    11 Apr 2013, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • grumbles
    , contributor
    Comments (91) | Send Message
     
    df is a .14 cents otc stock ,the company will put out any gibberish to drive the stock down. i wonder where they get their info from and if it is untrue they should be taken to task. i think the shorts are getting really desperate.
    11 Apr 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Khyber Pass
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    Thanks grumbles for the stock status of df. I didn't know 'bout that. Looks like lower case is justified, btw.
    11 Apr 2013, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • domprime
    , contributor
    Comments (107) | Send Message
     
    The further we get from true financials the more these shorts guys insists on stories that are flat on untruths.
    11 Apr 2013, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • sivakumaran13
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    Don't worry be happy and buy more,
    11 Apr 2013, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Greg Penny
    , contributor
    Comments (243) | Send Message
     
    A quick check of online ratings of Verizon, AT&T, Best Buy and Carphone Warehouse show reviews are overwhelmingly positive.

     

    Did the shorts climb out of their hole today?
    11 Apr 2013, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • sailpgd
    , contributor
    Comments (91) | Send Message
     
    I own a Z10 and am long the stock but BlackBerry needs to push out a OS update ASAP. It is a great phone and is extremely fast but there are numerous minor issues that need to be addressed. I can put up with these for the time being but many people may not. I hope that the update comes out before the Q10 is released. Every day without an update is lost sales.
    11 Apr 2013, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • dicki31785
    , contributor
    Comments (114) | Send Message
     
    Well really don't know if that is true. While I have a small sample (7-8 stores in Southwest Florida) and that is surely enough not scientific)). I went into the stores (Verizon, BBY, AT&T) and said "you don't have to sell me anything, I already have a Z10 but what are sales like?". I had some very nice conversations and always tried to talk to the most senior employee.

     

    I did not hear anything all too impressive but in-line with the 5-10% market share I was looking for in the US. Also they said that the customers who actually bought the phone were quite satisfied with the Z10, as they had to come back for cases and stuff such as that (you can also see that in the reviews on various Website - anybody heard of Amazon?). I don't think they had a reason to lie to me. But as I said this was quite the small sample. One thing I did not like though, Verizon does not even have the update for the Z10 out yet, which adds a good 2-3 hours to the battery life. This is how I spend my vacation ;)
    11 Apr 2013, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • slcUTAH
    , contributor
    Comments (533) | Send Message
     
    I will add to my Blackberry position with today's dip in share price.

     

    -Cheers.
    11 Apr 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • investmentguy81
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    Another bearish comment. Company must be short in the stock.
    11 Apr 2013, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • kherman
    , contributor
    Comments (792) | Send Message
     
    100% of the people that I know with a Windows Phone returned them.

     

    The ui has a learning curve. Once you learn it, it is the best one out there.

     

    How many businesses are returning them? 0?
    11 Apr 2013, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Continental Kid
    , contributor
    Comments (202) | Send Message
     
    Don't be blinded by your personal loyalties.....price is the final truth....all you BBRY bulls have such a bias...but the stock has gone nowhere in the last three months...if long at 7 congrats....if long at 17 be careful...
    11 Apr 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • Guest Eh
    , contributor
    Comments (419) | Send Message
     
    I am long, but totally agree with your statement Continental Kid. It is because of the truth in what you are saying that the reward possibility is greater. The risk is there for sure. I do believe that there are more negative spin messages than the facts warrant.
    11 Apr 2013, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • alext1379
    , contributor
    Comments (706) | Send Message
     
    Complaints about UI? I guess users of iOS and iOStoo can't handle real multi-tasking and an OS that flows naturally instead of in and out only. HUB has too much information possibly for their single process minds to digest?

     

    "Some" is rather vague. What retailer is that? Must be a new bigbox store or carrier. I like those sales figures though. You sell 10 units and somehow it grew to 10+ units if returns really exceed sales.

     

    Good buying opportunity earlier when the drop was near a dollar.

     

    Someone get the shorts another kitchen sink! This one didn't stick.
    11 Apr 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • rascallion
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
     
    google Detwiler Fenton and BBRY and there is a long list of negative "research" ....these guys are trying to close the stock below $14 on Friday to profit from option expiry
    11 Apr 2013, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • Ziffster
    , contributor
    Comments (383) | Send Message
     
    Authors should work harder to verify they are reporting solid facts and even then provide the sources so investors can draw their own conclusions regarding the accuracy of the information.

     

    I'm not saying that this is the case here (the author hasn't provided enough information to come to any conclusion one way or the other) but fact is the I can make statistics prove anything I want - just play with the parameters and sample long enough.

     

    I am sure I could find a store somewhere where more phones were returned than sold. If I then used this single store as a representative sample I could then argue the same case as the author is doing here.

     

    What ever happened to the idea with statistics of stating the accuracy of the prediction - it use to be statistical significance was included with published numbers such as 'statistically accurate to within +/- 5% 9 times out of 10'.

     

    ... but lets get back to discussion the 'facts' presented in this particular article.

     

    As others have pointed out, if this was happening on a wide spread basis it would be showing up in end user reviews. Amazon still shows between 4.0 and 4.6 out of 5 stars for Z10 depending upon service provider versus 3.5 to 4.1 for iPhone 5 with recent reviews just as positive as older reviews. Similar numbers are reported on BestBuy.

     

    PLEASE provide the facts when publishing articles rather than just stirring up rumors in order to manipulate market price and feather your friends nests at the expense of other investors.
    11 Apr 2013, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • jbde
    , contributor
    Comments (666) | Send Message
     
    Technically, the stock is at the 'do or die' point - the Lower Bollinger Band for those who believe in such things.
    So yes, today is a great day to buy - unless ........

     

    So ....

     

    BBRY needs to release some Z10 sales and Q10 order figures to trump all the bear BS that is dribbled out each day and taken as gospel as evidence by the stock price move downward.
    11 Apr 2013, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • grumbles
    , contributor
    Comments (91) | Send Message
     
    does SA just publish a note from any 2 cent company without trying to verify if there is any thruth to the article,because we have many fickle investors who believe anything they read. i agree with rascallion on his observations on DW. BB should come out with an answer to these obviously spurious articles.
    11 Apr 2013, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • LTI0723
    , contributor
    Comments (807) | Send Message
     
    DF - how about some actual facts and supporting details instead of this BS
    11 Apr 2013, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • pjdacs
    , contributor
    Comments (452) | Send Message
     
    I have an inside source that works at Detwiler.

     

    The survey was done at a Cupertino, store. The interviewer said that the 1 phone was bought to show all the apple employees that it is time to step up their game, then returned.

     

    Look Amazon's more accurate survey:
    http://amzn.to/14eECfp

     

    Case closed.
    11 Apr 2013, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • Cliff Hilton
    , contributor
    Comments (1666) | Send Message
     
    Use it as a buying opportunity! Compressed stocks make more money. Besides, this stock is a roller coaster, enjoy the ride, shorts aren't.
    11 Apr 2013, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Aristotle5
    , contributor
    Comments (510) | Send Message
     
    How come Z-10 sales are going very well globally and even taking market share from Apple while allegedly returns in the US are out pacing sales. NONSENSE!!!!!! Short sellers are attempting to manipulate the share price down. Raymond James, like so many other firms, are paid off by hedge funds.
    11 Apr 2013, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • investmentguy81
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    Also to note, It does not say how many retailers they surveyed. Its funny how these analysts can just throw out this information without showing or providing evidence of their claims.
    11 Apr 2013, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • eyhab27
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    The returns are probably due to the Amazon discounted price. People are returning their phones to AT&T and Verizon, and picking up the phone on Amazon for a $100 discount. Makes sense to me.

     

    The Z10 is not the only item on Amazon that is heavily discounted. Its why people shop on Amazon. Seems logical enough to me.
    11 Apr 2013, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • jaych79
    , contributor
    Comments (506) | Send Message
     
    Amazon is giving a $50 credit to those who bought at the higher price.
    11 Apr 2013, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • gladtidings
    , contributor
    Comments (200) | Send Message
     
    @pjdacs You rock! Anyone with any intelligence will know that this story is balderdash! There are missing substantiations to back up the assertion. "Several stores" Really ? - which, where, how many, etc....Is this an isolated case or a world-wide problem ie. in UK, Canada, Asia, Middle East, Latin America, USA ? This analyst is without credibility. More surprising is that BNN, a business network in Canada show themselves incredulous by repeating the story this morning without any discernment. It is like making a blanket sweep that all Toyota cars are defective because they had some problems with their brakes. Obviously, BB Management will not debase themselves to address such low slung opinions hurled their way. This story smells fishy and is a blatant attempt by the shorters to push the price down so that they can save their hide. Plain and simple.
    11 Apr 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mr. G.
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    Speaking of BBRY options, here is a thought using put credit spreads. BBRY is down $.79 as I write this, to $13.90. The $13.50 puts that expire tomorrow are currently trading at $.09 bid and the $12.50 put currently has a $.02 ask. Using a put credit spread here would give you an $.07 net credit or 7% for every $100 at risk with the put credit spread. In addition, you have a price cushion all the way down to $13.50 by the end of the day tomorrow. Remember, this is AFTER an $.80 move down, which is about a 5.5% move. Making 7% in 2 days is never a bad thing.

     

    A higher risk idea is a put credit spread using the -$14.00/+$13.00 which are also expiring tomorrow. The current credit is $.23, or 23%. What you would need to have happen is for the BBRY stock to close anywhere above $14.00 by the end of the day tomorrow for you to receive max profit. These trades might be worth a look.
    11 Apr 2013, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • sailpgd
    , contributor
    Comments (91) | Send Message
     
    @grumbles SA does us a servicing by publishing any news about why a stock is moving. BBRY was down 5% premarket because of this news. I'm glad I was able to come to SA to figure out why.
    11 Apr 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Cochise54
    , contributor
    Comments (347) | Send Message
     
    This report is a body blow to BBRY. Trading volume is up at least 19% for the day relative to the 10 day average, so far. 40,533,906 vs 32,510,064. People are running for the exits. Longs need some good news to keep the stock price from collapsing. Long BBRY and still in the black, but I am concerned. I'll stay long at least through the next quarterly report.
    11 Apr 2013, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • tiger8896
    , contributor
    Comments (621) | Send Message
     
    The bulls are in trouble when a company with a research dept. of 6 people can cause BBRY to fall by a buck.

     

    The real reason is it was ripe for selling having made no headway after the Z10 launch and earnings, even a strong market couldn't turn the price up.
    11 Apr 2013, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • SP5524
    , contributor
    Comments (85) | Send Message
     
    Exactly. And notice they didn't say SALES were in line with their peers. If aapl sells 47 million units and experiences 50 K returns hypothetically, and the Z10 sell 75K units and experiences 50k returns, then yes returns are in line with their peers. How is this not seen as bad news? What future does this company have? What's the plan to build the ecosystem and love for the brand?

     

    I walked by a t mobile store in Manhattan today. Lines around the corner. For iPhone and the way it was marketed was beautiful. I was talking to a sales clerk and he said the z10 has been a mess. He admitted its a great phone but its buggy and business minded people just cannot trust it.

     

    What do BBRY bulls look to for a turnaround? I just don't get it.
    12 Apr 2013, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • DIgitalMediaView
    , contributor
    Comments (668) | Send Message
     
    What Heins actually said: "Return rate statistics show that we are at or below our forecasts and right in line with the industry." He's talking about RATE of return, not absolute numbers, for BBRY and vs. competitors. As the CEO of his company, he's hugely accountable for such statements.

     

    Your explanation of his statement is preposterous. And Verizon also refuted the report on returns; were they in on what you concluded was deceptive wording too? (http://bit.ly/112uMaq)

     

    As far as your "focus group of one" research study, whatever. At under $14 BBRY is not being compared to AAPL, it is being compared to its tangible asset value. If the Z10 and Q10 are even mildly appealing to its base of business users, the stock is extremely undervalued.
    12 Apr 2013, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • Cliff Hilton
    , contributor
    Comments (1666) | Send Message
     
    You can make the same case for APPL.
    11 Apr 2013, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Alpha Crazy
    , contributor
    Comments (379) | Send Message
     
    Detwiler Fenton is scaring those weak longs into selling so their clients can cover and go long. It doesnt hurt to also get some "fees" from Google. Microsoft and Apple as well.
    11 Apr 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • logicalman
    , contributor
    Comments (763) | Send Message
     
    If you are truly an " investor " you will hang in there and will be richly rewarded for doing so!!! In the end the only thing that matters is that we backed a superior product!!!
    11 Apr 2013, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • Sir Chief
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    every new gadgets has a learning curve. i think the news was a bit exaggerated and the source (Detwiler Fenton & Co) came from a desperate company and its website is down. totally unreliable.
    12 Apr 2013, 05:15 AM Reply Like
  • DIgitalMediaView
    , contributor
    Comments (668) | Send Message
     
    Marketwatch: BlackBerry Inc. BBRY +1.70% said Friday morning that it is asking federal securities regulators to review "a false and misleading report" claiming high rates of returns for its Z10 smartphone. The report, from the investment research firm Detwiler Fenton, circulated on Thursday, along with negative comments from some other analysts about sales of the new smartphone. BlackBerry's shares fell 7.7% by the close of trading on Thursday. "Return rate statistics show that we are at or below our forecasts and right in line with the industry," BlackBerry CEO Thorsten Heins said in a statement on Friday. "To suggest otherwise is either a gross misreading of the data or a willful manipulation." The company said it is seeking review from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as well as the Ontario Securities Commission. http://on.mktw.net/16Z...
    12 Apr 2013, 09:42 AM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Tools
Find the right ETFs for your portfolio:
Seeking Alpha's new ETF Hub
ETF Investment Guide:
Table of Contents | One Page Summary
Read about different ETF Asset Classes:
ETF Selector