In the U.S., we're just a few hours from when a gold investor's thoughts turn to October - which...

In the U.S., we're just a few hours from when a gold investor's thoughts turn to October - which Mark Hulbert has called the "cruelest month" for the shiny metal, pointing to average 0.9% losses over the past 30 years. Everything from decoupling to Diwali may be a factor these days, though. And MarketSci runs its own numbers to put it to the test, and concludes that October is bad, but March is worse.

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Comments (6)
  • $CLU
    , contributor
    Comments (264) | Send Message
    Interesting conjecture.
    According to the analysis September typically showed the biggest gain. This September was pretty bad for Gold so which reason do we believe?
    - Gold is now an inverted trend due to hedge fund margin calls.
    (When hedge funds crash, a maddening 'vice versa' takes hold.)


    - Trend is arriving earlier in anticipation of October down.


    - Means nothing, the statistics aren't truly meaningful.


    - Gold trend is on the other side of the hill (heading slowly down).


    - Could be uncharted territory in which there are no rules or trends.
    (Scariest option)
    30 Sep 2011, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16385) | Send Message
    Must be a slow news night.


    Imagine, a 0.9% average loss for the month....about what the market indices do in about ten minutes, these days.
    30 Sep 2011, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • Ohrama
    , contributor
    Comments (568) | Send Message
    This October could be different:
    For Indians and I suppose in other developing countries where they are used to prices moving up and up only, the drop from nearly 2000 to 1600 would be considered as an opportunity. And those who have the money, and those who have the need to marry off their daughters etc. (it is cruel but is considered necessary for even those who don't have the money to afford it!) would up their purchases. And I also notice talk perhaps among the filthy rich and the new rich of 25 Oz of gold for each marriage now whereas 5 to 10 was perhaps the norm 25 years ago. Ditto for the silver. Multiply this by the factor by which the copulation eligibility and the opportunity rate (I mean the number of marriages) going up in those countries!
    Also, don't forget if the world keeps repeating in the same pattern we would all get bored. Like there should be some new information (in the data we keep sending or conversation we have among our spouses etc.), there should be some new pattern once in a while to keep these Algorithm guys off balance. What happened to 2008 famous John Paulson today?
    1 Oct 2011, 12:00 AM Reply Like
  • youngman442002
    , contributor
    Comments (5123) | Send Message
    Just one little default could change this statistic...
    1 Oct 2011, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • mcostigane
    , contributor
    Comments (44) | Send Message
    what gold and silver does in a month's time is a meaningless.
    1 Oct 2011, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • Retired User
    , contributor
    Comments (1790) | Send Message
    Are stocks or bonds a safe bet this month?
    1 Oct 2011, 05:59 PM Reply Like
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