A slide in commodity prices turns into a rout: GLD -3.2%, SLV -4.2%, USO -3%, Copper (JJC)...


A slide in commodity prices turns into a rout: GLD -3.2%, SLV -4.2%, USO -3%, Copper (JJC) -2.2%. At $1,506/oz., gold is threatening a $1,400 handle for the first time in nearly 2 years. After an early bounce, stocks move to session lows, the S&P 500 -0.7%. The long bond gains three-quarters of a full point, its yield down to a 2013 low of 2.93%. Update at 11:05: Now off 4.3%, gold slips below $1,500.

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Comments (54)
  • mickmars
    , contributor
    Comments (1312) | Send Message
     
    Man, some good deals on oil stocks coming....
    12 Apr 2013, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (14994) | Send Message
     
    Ben is talking today, is the commodity price drop a coincidence??

     

    Maybe a nice buying opportunity???
    12 Apr 2013, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9252) | Send Message
     
    IT, buy, buy, buy! You may not be able to get a better money losing opportunity in future if gold keeps falling. You want to buy when there is still major room to fall.
    12 Apr 2013, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • WheelsComingOff
    , contributor
    Comments (764) | Send Message
     
    LOL macro. I agree. Gold has a LONG way to go now that it broke 1525. Silver has nothing but air after it breaks 26. We will be looking at $20 silver soon as well.
    12 Apr 2013, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9252) | Send Message
     
    That's why moral folks who like austerity should buy NOW! Where are all the real men?
    12 Apr 2013, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • Jason Burack
    , contributor
    Comments (2146) | Send Message
     
    Yes and no. The miners are going to start turning production off quickly because the mines are becoming cash flow negative now. $20/Silver for a few quarters would bankrupt a good percentage of primary Silver producers. (SSRI) is one of the highest cost producers. Their only producing mine is now cash flow negative.
    12 Apr 2013, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Jason Burack
    , contributor
    Comments (2146) | Send Message
     
    Gold miners cannot survive many quarters with gold below $1400 and silver miners cannot survive very long with Silver anywhere near $20.
    12 Apr 2013, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9252) | Send Message
     
    Everyone should buy NUGT then to lose money.
    12 Apr 2013, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • dreadlordnaf
    , contributor
    Comments (476) | Send Message
     
    Yeah austerity sucks! Who are those anti-austerity advocates to tell people like Macro that he shouldn't be able to enslave the next three generations of unborn children to financial indentured servitude in order to pay for current consumption now. How dare they! Down with austerity! Up with passing the buck to our kids!
    12 Apr 2013, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • dreadlordnaf
    , contributor
    Comments (476) | Send Message
     
    Thats not necessarily a bad thing. It will buoy the price back up and frankly the sector could use some consolidation if a few go under.
    12 Apr 2013, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9252) | Send Message
     
    Next 3 generations only? I was thinking of the next 10 generations. Of course, with austerity we have already screwed the 20-30 year olds. Why can't we keep doing that for the next 10 generations? If Europe can get 30-40% unemployment, why can't we? That's the only way to properly set up the future generations - massive unemployment.
    12 Apr 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (4729) | Send Message
     
    Everyone is a buyer today, not one seller, according to my supplier (physical of course).
    12 Apr 2013, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • user92718
    , contributor
    Comments (166) | Send Message
     
    Doug, I read one of your comments previously that we are heading to a one major fall then it will start going up, is this what happening today?
    What is your price range expectation for gold and silver by end of this year?
    12 Apr 2013, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (4729) | Send Message
     
    Writing an article on it today user92718. Yes, was expecting it, and we got a good one today. Still only recommend dollar cost averaging into a position. Not sure if Seeking Alpha will post the article as is. We shall see. I like the price action though as it fits in with my article that highlights what I have been saying since September 2011. Been busy since 2:30am PST on the article as well as business.
    12 Apr 2013, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • user92718
    , contributor
    Comments (166) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Doug,
    Do you believe both gold and silver are bottomed today or just gold?
    In case they didn't post your article, can I email you and you send it to me?
    12 Apr 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (4729) | Send Message
     
    Not sure I said either will have bottomed. I do like silver better than gold for reason I have written about, and in addition to the fact the supply is limited on some products, delays in shipping, and premiums are moving higher.

     

    Shoot me a private message with your email and I can send you a copy of the article. Almost finished. Just getting sidetracked because I replied to a Macro post. My mistake, lol.
    12 Apr 2013, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • gotsushi
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
     
    That means the bottom is not reached. Let us know when nobody buying on a dip any more.
    13 Apr 2013, 02:46 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16256) | Send Message
     
    Where are all the acolytes, worshiping the Golden Ox?
    12 Apr 2013, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • css1971
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    Meh. gold/oil is about 16 which is pretty much the long term average. Nothing to worry about.

     

    If it gets above 20 I'll be selling, if it gets down towards 10 I'll be backing up the truck. Other than that, it's gold, It doesn't even oxidise.

     

    Copper/Oil dropping indicates the economy's in trouble (plenty of misses lately) which means all those extended stocks are going to .......... and my treasuries hedge is going to ..............

     

    I'll let you fill in the blanks.
    12 Apr 2013, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • mstrong1
    , contributor
    Comments (89) | Send Message
     
    Watching the price with my brother, we are going to split a monster box
    12 Apr 2013, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • youngman442002
    , contributor
    Comments (5123) | Send Message
     
    A lot of hard metal is going to be shipped to Asia..never to be seen again....Comex and London are going to be out of a job....they will just shuffle paper....
    12 Apr 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (11216) | Send Message
     
    Fiat currency debasement since 8/22/11...8/22/11 Gold $1877/oz...
    now $1505/oz
    12 Apr 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • mickmars
    , contributor
    Comments (1312) | Send Message
     
    Eh, cherry pick your time frames. Gold still kills SPY over 5 and 10 years.

     

    When Cramer says it's time to sell Gold. Load up, people.
    12 Apr 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9252) | Send Message
     
    I guarantee you that gold will be a billion per ounce.

     

    Some day. In the future. So buy now.
    12 Apr 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (4729) | Send Message
     
    Or a Barackazillion (barackazillion.com)
    12 Apr 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (11216) | Send Message
     
    Well let's see the Federal Reserve established December 1913..
    Gold Dec 1913....$19/oz.. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index 12/31/1913....78.78....

     

    Don't forget the dividends....
    12 Apr 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • mickmars
    , contributor
    Comments (1312) | Send Message
     
    Yes, Gold and Stocks both horrible places to put cash over that time frame as well. Land and real estate too. Silliness.
    12 Apr 2013, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (4729) | Send Message
     
    bbro, Right...and the gold price was fixed until 1971. Let's start then and compare, or 1975 when U.S. citizens were allowed to own more than $100 worth.
    12 Apr 2013, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (11216) | Send Message
     
    S&P 500 (dividends reinvested) still wins....
    12 Apr 2013, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (4729) | Send Message
     
    Not if you take into account the stocks invested in 1971. Am I allowed to switch gold and silver from one to the other to take advantage of the ratio to compete with the kicking out of the S&P various companies over the years? It's not as black and white as one may think. If you analyze it from MeasuringWorth.com, gold does just fine as an asset class. No one is saying to put everything into gold and silver. I leave a full 80% to 90% for clients to have fun in the markets, if they don't mind risk. But I sell insurance more than anything.
    12 Apr 2013, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9252) | Send Message
     
    I think people who put 100% in gold like IT are very happy today.
    12 Apr 2013, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • mobyss
    , contributor
    Comments (2595) | Send Message
     
    Good opportunity for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to buy some physical gold to ship over to Germany, since they don't seem to actually have any in their Manhattan vault (otherwise why would it take 7 years to deliver?).
    12 Apr 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • BGSG
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    i bought a 148 P @ 3.40 for GLD any advice?
    12 Apr 2013, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • redarrow5150
    , contributor
    Comments (1366) | Send Message
     
    Here catch my sharp knife.
    12 Apr 2013, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • BGSG
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    made off at 4.25 !
    14 Apr 2013, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • Alpha Man
    , contributor
    Comments (495) | Send Message
     
    Ezekiel 7:19

     

    They cast their silver into the streets, and their gold is like an unclean thing. Their silver and gold are not able to deliver them in the day of the wrath of the Lord. They cannot satisfy their hunger or fill their stomachs with it. For it was the stumbling block of their iniquity.
    12 Apr 2013, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9252) | Send Message
     
    Brilliant!
    12 Apr 2013, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (4729) | Send Message
     
    But until it gets to that point in time, and the Bible is your guide, then this verse proves that silver and gold are the last standing. No mention of Federal Reserve Notes in the Bible.
    12 Apr 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • css1971
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    Should'a traded their GLD for WEAT.

     

    Problem solved.
    12 Apr 2013, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • Gary Jakacky
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    Boy those North Koreans sure are scaring the markets!
    12 Apr 2013, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (4729) | Send Message
     
    Macro, so you agree Federal Reserve Notes aren't in the Bible, along with Cell Phone's, and the internet. Glad we are on the same page.

     

    Gold and silver are, over 600 times.

     

    As far as allowing the Feds into "the Christian country of the USA?" -Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof.
    12 Apr 2013, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9252) | Send Message
     
    Doug, Isn't that wrong? Shouldn't we use the Bible for all laws, and failing that, buy gold? I mean, if gay marriage becomes legal, just buy more gold because the world will come to an end, right?
    12 Apr 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (4729) | Send Message
     
    Macro, you were the one who called the comment from the poster above "brilliant." I just opened your eyes to the other side. Judging whether one is right or wrong is left to the higher power of the Bible in question, whether gold, silver, or gay marriage.

     

    I like how you try to bring in more to it than what the "issue" was being discussed. How did you do in your law classes anyway?
    12 Apr 2013, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9252) | Send Message
     
    I failed, Doug. I always fail all my classes. I even failed to lose money on gold.
    12 Apr 2013, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (4729) | Send Message
     
    So there was no "Coming Gold Bounce" Macro? I know you aren't complaining with your profit on DUST, but you left $27 on the table there when you wrote that article.

     

    Here's what I said on that article you wrote: http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    "Macro could be right though. A bounce followed by a further pullback in gold breaking to fresh lows. Market Makers like to make investors scream UNCLE, if they can. Seen it 100 times."
    12 Apr 2013, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9252) | Send Message
     
    Doug, for the gold bounce to come we will need a few gold miners to capitulate.
    12 Apr 2013, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (4729) | Send Message
     
    Fine with me. I think some are screaming UNCLE now though.
    12 Apr 2013, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • Whitehawk
    , contributor
    Comments (3121) | Send Message
     
    Margin calls from losing trades (such as failed JGB/JPY/carry trades) can cause selloffs in other asset positions - such as gold. Silver just follows gold. These dynamics must not be ignored.
    12 Apr 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • RM13
    , contributor
    Comments (1200) | Send Message
     
    Well, I want to know who folded the cards today?
    12 Apr 2013, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • kmi
    , contributor
    Comments (4579) | Send Message
     
    Folks looking at the 10 year chart are buying from folks looking at a 30 year chart.
    13 Apr 2013, 07:37 AM Reply Like
  • redarrow5150
    , contributor
    Comments (1366) | Send Message
     
    (Carly Simon Anticipation)

     

    We can never know about the days to come
    But we think about them anyway, yay
    And I wonder if I'm really with you now
    Or just chasin' after some finer day

     

    DEFLATION, DEFLATION
    Is makin' me late
    Is keepin' me waitin'

     

    And I tell you how easy it feels to be with you
    And how right your arms feel around me
    But I, I rehearsed those lines just late last night
    When I was thinkin' about how right tonight might be

     

    DEFLATION, DEFLATION
    Is makin' me late
    Is keepin' me waitin'

     

    And tomorrow we might not be together
    I'm no prophet and I don't know nature's ways
    So I'll try and see into your eyes right now
    And stay right here 'cause these are the good old days

     

    (These are the good old days)
    And stay right here 'cause these are the good old days
    (These are the good old days)
    (These are the good old days)
    (These are the good old days)
    (These are.....the good old days)
    12 Apr 2013, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • Be Here Now
    , contributor
    Comments (6215) | Send Message
     
    Natgas is a commodity and it is up.
    12 Apr 2013, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • jeff lauder
    , contributor
    Comments (180) | Send Message
     
    copper is a bubble created by the Chinese.what they didn't put in empty buildings they are storing.
    12 Apr 2013, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • redarrow5150
    , contributor
    Comments (1366) | Send Message
     
    Maybe that's what 60 Minutes should be investigating! All those empty residential areas in China are actually being used to store copper!!!!!!
    12 Apr 2013, 04:19 PM Reply Like
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