Seeking Alpha

Goldman's short call on gold looks prescient, as comex gold sinks $63.50 to settle at...

Goldman's short call on gold looks prescient, as comex gold sinks $63.50 to settle at $1,501.40/oz. for its lowest close since July 2011. Traders and analysts see no obvious trigger for the selloff, which seems to reflect the malaise that has gripped the market. Silver slips $1.37 to $26.33/oz. Miners are huge losers: HMY -7.5%, ABX -7.3%, AEM -6.9%, AUY -6.2%, SLW -5.6%, NEM -5.2%, EGO -4.9%, GFI -4.8%, GG -4.5%.
Comments (37)
  • davidshelton
    , contributor
    Comments (326) | Send Message
     
    Capitulation....
    12 Apr 2013, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • Hendershott
    , contributor
    Comments (1619) | Send Message
     
    Run away, Run away
    12 Apr 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • davidshelton
    , contributor
    Comments (326) | Send Message
     
    Sitting on my hands for a bit longer... (something I should have done since 2011 - oh well!)
    12 Apr 2013, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • aadamiani
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    Not capitulation but manipulation!
    12 Apr 2013, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Jason Burack
    , contributor
    Comments (1824) | Send Message
     
    The manipulation slows down and stops and the price must move higher once many miners can no longer mine metal for a profit. We are in the process now of a huge wash out where many miners are in trouble if metals prices go much lower.
    12 Apr 2013, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • Papibodo
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    Greetings from Belgium (Europe) I'm buying !!!!
    13 Apr 2013, 07:48 AM Reply Like
  • alchemisteve
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    Predicted it?
    They caused it.
    Who has the naked shorts?
    JP Morgan can't have them all ...
    12 Apr 2013, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • tsajames
    , contributor
    Comments (51) | Send Message
     
    I am buying. I always look at the options and open interest, the behind the scenes. Not to mention, when the business/financial media make a recommendation; I've learned to do the opposite. So, if they are telling everyone to sell, that's a buy. Option calls are increasing.
    12 Apr 2013, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mad Matt
    , contributor
    Comments (100) | Send Message
     
    Right on, tsajames!!! When all the idiots say SELL, then you know the end of this is near. I love your contrarian stance. I think we are near the end of this selling climax, so now is not a bad time to jump in, especially with silver. May be another downturn, but the end of this is near, in my opinion. Too many bears out there!
    12 Apr 2013, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • toughchoice
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    an easy call for the market riggers...may they all rot in hell...
    12 Apr 2013, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mad Matt
    , contributor
    Comments (100) | Send Message
     
    You can beat these market riggers. Keep in mind that they have to cover all their short positions, and when this happens, gold and silver will skyrocket. KEEP YOUR POWDER DRY! They may rot in hell a lot sooner than you think. After all, what does Goldman know???
    12 Apr 2013, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • filipo
    , contributor
    Comments (4024) | Send Message
     
    Every cloud has a silver lining.
    12 Apr 2013, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3454) | Send Message
     
    I am jumping the gun on my next article I am submitting to Seeking Alpha, but let's go back and see what Goldman said in November and December of 2011 and see how "prescient" those calls were (they reiterated their earlier call to hold gold through 2012 in November 2011 and again in December 2011).

     

    Here is what I wrote in November 2011:

     

    Just heard CNBC say that Goldman Sachs is reiterating their call for gold through 2012. Personally, I don’t trust anything Goldman Sachs says. They are a holding bank and a puppet of the Federal Reserve. The same goes for J.P. Morgan. Why exactly are they both holding banks? Why have they involved themselves heavily into the gold and silver markets? Again…stay tuned… Reference spot price of gold right now $1,780.90 and silver $34.28 with the U.S. dollar index sitting at 77.53.

     

    http://bit.ly/12V0tDH

     

    Here is what I wrote in December 2011:

     

    While one can give Goldman Sachs the benefit of the doubt about holding through 2012, I found their timing rather odd to announce this “reiteration” of their point of view at a time when the dollar was moving higher because of the mess in Europe. Anytime I hear things that don’t make sense like this, I immediately think market manipulation. My brain is trained to hear the opposite. In this case, I was right. Gold is down $180 from that point in time and silver fell 24% since that call hitting a low of around $28.90 this week. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index has continued to climb past the 80 mark. They didn’t see this coming?

     

    http://bit.ly/YQNnYS

     

    Now Goldman Sachs says to short the metals when gold is in the $1,500 range, and silver in the $27 range? Well who do you think is buying?

     

    My supplier said there are no sellers of the physical today with this price drop, only buyers. There are also shortages and higher premiums on most every silver product. You think Goldman doesn't know this?
    12 Apr 2013, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Jason Burack
    , contributor
    Comments (1824) | Send Message
     
    Goldman is probably in the process of closing out their shorts, adding more physical and about to go long. The fractional reserve paper markets are obviously still in control of this market setting the price and supply/demand fundamentals for physical are being completely ignored in the short term.
    12 Apr 2013, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • jdm12313
    , contributor
    Comments (210) | Send Message
     
    Maybe I am not talking about the same thing but the gold/silver ads seem to keep pouring in and they are selling to buyers. Apmex etc? Am I mistaken?
    12 Apr 2013, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mad Matt
    , contributor
    Comments (100) | Send Message
     
    You are so on the button! They are driving out all the WANABEES, and that is good. A classic case of market manipulation. What else would you expect from Golden Slacks? They are a pit of vipers at best, and JP Morgan is in the same class. So take advantage of the situation and buy. And when I say buy, buy the physical gold and silver eagles, and especially silver. Right now they cannot produce enough silver to meet demand. And those crooks at Golden Slacks and JP Morgan know that.
    12 Apr 2013, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • Mad Matt
    , contributor
    Comments (100) | Send Message
     
    This crazy sell off today is a scam by Goldman. It is all PAPER trades on future contracts. That is why putting stops on your gold and silver peper investments PLAYS RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THESE MARKET-MANIPULATING CROOKS. These dudes are not stupid, and they know that when these stops get hit, the cascade is on, like happened today.

     

    THE REMEDY: Just buy the physical metal, like silver and gold eagles, and HOLD! HOLD! HOLD! Goldman and JP Morgan can minipulate until the cows come home, and it will have no effect in the longer term. And the longer term is what this is all about.
    12 Apr 2013, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • jdm12313
    , contributor
    Comments (210) | Send Message
     
    This has been said all the way down from $1800..is the notion that deflationary threats exist really that unthinkable.....not saying probable but is it possible?? Physical PM is always good to have but in moderation. G/L
    12 Apr 2013, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • pman6
    , contributor
    Comments (270) | Send Message
     
    abx is now my crappiest stock holding.

     

    I wish I could manipulate the market like they do
    12 Apr 2013, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Jason Burack
    , contributor
    Comments (1824) | Send Message
     
    Barrick is a crappy company. There are way better gold companies to own.
    12 Apr 2013, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • Hannox
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    I suspect the Chinese are rubbing their hands together. Their objective it to get to 10k tonnes of Gold by 2012 (currently 1054). This implies roughly 1280 tonnes a year or over half global production. IMHO they should just buy ABX which would get them half way to their target and deliver 250 tonnes of output pa aswell. I also firmly believe that the GDX led the gold price lower today rather than visa versa and Im also firmly of the view that the GDX is being manipulated by the FED. We live in a very scary world. Would stick with Gold over fiat confetti whatever the case.
    12 Apr 2013, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • Jason Burack
    , contributor
    Comments (1824) | Send Message
     
    China owns a lot more than 1,054 tons of gold. That is only the official number they reported last in 2009 I believe. They are supposed to report their updated gold holdings in 2014 according to Jim Rickards. I have spoken with Rickards in emails and he said China sends people to Asian gold conferences for metals and mining in HK and that their current holdings are much larger than the official number. He said the China Investment Corp had representatives at the conference looking to make gold investments.
    12 Apr 2013, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • scoops12
    , contributor
    Comments (75) | Send Message
     
    I'm with GS. Time to buy into stocks at an all-time high, and sell PMs after 2 years consolidation and a major daily crash. Makes perfect sense.
    12 Apr 2013, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • Brian58
    , contributor
    Comments (190) | Send Message
     
    What this tells me: time to buy the miners
    12 Apr 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mccarthy31
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    Solvency issues around the corner for miners if Gold continues its plunge.
    12 Apr 2013, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • tabilosa
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    People have said it all...just plain large money manipulation and stealing from scared little people
    12 Apr 2013, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • tabilosa
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Nothing has changed but the big players that will again drive the little people out and take more money for the 1%...
    12 Apr 2013, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • fsm1
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    I only see reasons to buy gold : high risks on banks, especially in Europe ; inflation will come with all the printing of money.
    12 Apr 2013, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • David48
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    The charts show this is a major bottom, with a double-bottom forming at 143-144 in GLD. If it breaks, then down we go further. This could be a great entry point for those still holding cash.
    12 Apr 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Seeking Predictability
    , contributor
    Comments (18) | Send Message
     
    As for silver: recent blogs report that production barely meets demand, which is growing. Unless paper or bitcoin replaces precious metal AND a new element is discovered for electronic and medical use, price must rise to stimulate production. Bankers and politicians can get away with a helluva lot of unlawful manipulation, but the law of supply and demand is sovereign. It's a secular equivalent of the poet's "The mill of God grinds slowly, but exceeding small".
    12 Apr 2013, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Bernie777
    , contributor
    Comments (90) | Send Message
     
    Manipulation......highway robbery.....paper gold manipulators waiting for an excuse.....Cyprus gives it to them, give me a break...,..Break up the big banks.....Tax high volume trades like Europe is doing.....NOW
    12 Apr 2013, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • hummerh25
    , contributor
    Comments (99) | Send Message
     
    Looks like SoGen is going to be right $1375 is on the way. Head for the exit before everyone does at the same time.
    12 Apr 2013, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • 2tontom
    , contributor
    Comments (73) | Send Message
     
    I do hope the pleasure will be worth all this pain. I'm starting to wish I'd never heard of metals sector. But, it does like an opportunity to buy more of shinny stuff.
    Still stacking!!!.....???
    12 Apr 2013, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • doctorslernon
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    Has anyone considered that outside of manipulation that gold is dropping because its being used to bolster bailout funds (Cyprus), margin (Jap bonds), and the momo crowd is fleeing? Lets see if gold has bottomed out then jump in once people realize that the paper supply is non-existent. After all, Germany's gold in the US will only take 7 years for us to "return". I wonder why...
    12 Apr 2013, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • Papibodo
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    Greetings from Belgium
    I'm buying gold and silver miners !
    13 Apr 2013, 07:48 AM Reply Like
  • willydo
    , contributor
    Comments (230) | Send Message
     
    I have Sprott Physical Silver (PSLV). The cef usually trades at a premium but is now at a discount. I will probably start adding to my position soon. It tracks the metals price very closely.
    Many above talk about 'paper' silver and gold. In my view, PSLV is a good way to hold the physical metal without trying to buy coins etc. (I do have them for emergency but not enough for "investment").
    So Sprott has both physical silver and gold and no premium.
    Willydo
    13 Apr 2013, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • hummerh25
    , contributor
    Comments (99) | Send Message
     
    One way to protect your long gold and silver is to hedge it with the DZZ short gold, ZSL short silver. The miners might be a good bet now with the big sell off.
    13 Apr 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
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