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Chinese Q1 GDP growth disappoints, rising 7.7% Y/Y vs. 8% expected, and slowing from 7.9% in Q4....

Chinese Q1 GDP growth disappoints, rising 7.7% Y/Y vs. 8% expected, and slowing from 7.9% in Q4. March industrial production misses expectations of 10% growth, rising just 8.9%. Retail sales, however, beats forecasts, rising 12.6% vs. 12.3% expected. Asia's taking a bit of a tumble, Shanghai -0.6%, and the Hang Seng -1.6%. The aussie (FXA) slides 0.6% to $1.0463.
Comments (13)
  • yliu54
    , contributor
    Comments (170) | Send Message
     
    It will be more dangerous if they are still creating bubbles
    14 Apr 2013, 11:07 PM Reply Like
  • Whitehawk
    , contributor
    Comments (3129) | Send Message
     
    Some sharp moves in the futures and currency markets tonite: AUD down sharply (expected); silver/gold crashing 7/5% ($24.08/$1422); copper/crude down ($3.30/$89.5). Not meaningful moves yet in U.S. equity index futures. We’ll just have to see if these trends continue into tomorrow/later in the session…

     

    Margin calls and trend trading in PMs continue...NG sharply up on a pairs trade!

     

    P.S. 7.7% growth isn't too shabby - what an excuse
    14 Apr 2013, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • yliu54
    , contributor
    Comments (170) | Send Message
     
    I guess tomorrow will be a hard day for us markets as well.
    14 Apr 2013, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10203) | Send Message
     
    Always need an excuse to rip people off !!

     

    Honestly I am getting tired of this. No rules anymore I guess. Goldman looks like a genius calling for people to sell their commodities. ROFL

     

    That takes it to another level to rub it into our faces...
    15 Apr 2013, 01:27 AM Reply Like
  • User 353732
    , contributor
    Comments (4795) | Send Message
     
    China's labor force has now peaked. Its very successful mercantilist growth model that forcibly integrated very cheap labor with global manufacturing and fed it with inexpensive capital is now nearing the end of its lifecycle.

     

    No replacement model has yet been devised.

     

    Chinese economic data only disappoints those who believe that demographics does not matter and a model that worked for three decades will endure for multiple generations.
    15 Apr 2013, 05:25 AM Reply Like
  • kmi
    , contributor
    Comments (3984) | Send Message
     
    The replacement model, dear friend, is 3D printing, which is pushing the labor driven Chinese model into obsolescence, at the same time that the financialization of global commodities has created a huge glut of supply.

     

    China was, however, quite smart to buy up as many real assets as it could while it sold its labor globally for next to nothing.
    15 Apr 2013, 06:43 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Geoghan
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    3D printing has a long way to go before it can outdo a tight manufacturing process. Have you seen one working? talk about paint drying times!..
    15 Apr 2013, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • kmi
    , contributor
    Comments (3984) | Send Message
     
    A long way to go, but the point stands that labor will be increasingly marginalized by the process.
    15 Apr 2013, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Geoghan
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    I'm sorry, I do not see the problem here?

     

    7.7% instead of 7.9%?

     

    I think these so called financial experts manipulate the way in which these figures are perceived in order to feather their own nests. Once they've cashed in their shorts, or bought at lower prices, we'll be reading about the next rising demand.
    15 Apr 2013, 06:54 AM Reply Like
  • kmi
    , contributor
    Comments (3984) | Send Message
     
    What you don't understand is that valuation models for equities under a 7.7% increase in GDP imply different prices than valuation models for equities under a 7.9% GDP growth. Large money managers use models to allocate risk and exposure and re-allocate when their models have erroneous projections.
    15 Apr 2013, 07:02 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4598) | Send Message
     
    If the money managers you reference here are reacting to a .2% change they need to find another profession !
    15 Apr 2013, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Geoghan
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    I get that forward valuations take into account future growth forecasts. This drop of 0.2% - (or even the drop from the expected 8% growth of 0.3%) of the Y/Y figures should not cause such a massive sell off, unless the market was over heated anyway.

     

    It just shows you how nervous the market is. I still re-iterate my point that 'I don't see a problem'. China has a long way to go until recession. I am of the opinion that China knows how to manage it's economy. For one thing, the leaders do not have to worry about pleasing the electorate for votes. They do what's best for the country, and do not care what the people think. It's deeper than this though, it's Chinese culture to not want to lose face. They will do their utmost to prove that their ideas are better than the west's.

     

    Keeping an economy on a smooth plain is not easy, but I reckon they stand a better chance than most - for another 10 years at least anyway.

     

    Great opportunity to buy into sold down stocks today, they'll be back up by the end of the week.
    15 Apr 2013, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • kmi
    , contributor
    Comments (3984) | Send Message
     
    I agree a .2 miss into jittery markets is what we are seeing. I disagree that 'All is Quiet on the China Front' however. I also think you have a highly idealized perspective of China....
    15 Apr 2013, 03:49 PM Reply Like
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