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March Housing Starts: 1.04M vs. 930K forecast, 968K previous (revised from 917K).

March Housing Starts: 1.04M vs. 930K forecast, 968K previous (revised from 917K).
Comments (11)
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9834) | Send Message
     
    The Housing Starts to Nonfarm Payrolls ratio today is .77%...the average ratio for the 1990's was 1.17...the range was .73 to 1.40....the .73
    was in January 1991 with a 30 year mortgage rate of 9.64..the 30 year
    mortgage rate today is 3.43%
    16 Apr 2013, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (1144) | Send Message
     
    bbro,

     

    What has more net economic "value" (as in total GDP): multi family or single family?

     

    Slight drop in the pace of single family was offset by the surge in multi-family but I am not at all clear what that mix means from a GDP point of view.

     

    thank you.
    16 Apr 2013, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • Lakeaffect
    , contributor
    Comments (1047) | Send Message
     
    It's the new housing policy - - If everyone can't own their own home, then nobody can.
    16 Apr 2013, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9834) | Send Message
     
    Single family has greater economic value...in the 90's about 80 to 85% of housing starts were single family..today are averaging around 65%..
    I believe the top end for housing starts in this cycle will be in the 1.5 range. Residential Investment has averaged 4.5% of GDP (including the huge outliers from the 2003-2006 era)... the high for Resi /GDP I believe will be in the 4.0 to 4.5 range...we are 2.6% today
    16 Apr 2013, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • dnissano
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    i used to work in mortgage backed securities and i can tell you that the majority of the economic activity is in Single Family Housing.
    16 Apr 2013, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • youngman442002
    , contributor
    Comments (5131) | Send Message
     
    Its an apartment boom right now...at least in Denver it is...thousands being built
    16 Apr 2013, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • davidparent
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    If you lost your home to foreclosure it will be years before you can buy again. In the meantime you rent.
    16 Apr 2013, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • dividend_growth
    , contributor
    Comments (2895) | Send Message
     
    Those who got out before 2007 will be back by next year.
    16 Apr 2013, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9050) | Send Message
     
    Clearly this is super bearish for the economy.
    16 Apr 2013, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • William Shearer, Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    This sort of comment from someone long on gold? Thought I'd never see the day...
    17 Apr 2013, 03:31 AM Reply Like
  • Cliff Hilton
    , contributor
    Comments (1745) | Send Message
     
    It depends on where your economy is! Our boom/bust (Texas) happened in the 80's; we've learned a few things. Build, build, build, we like to say. Stock picking time again.
    16 Apr 2013, 02:29 PM Reply Like
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