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After dropping to the lowest level since March 2009 last week, bulls gain 7.5 points to 26.8% in...

After dropping to the lowest level since March 2009 last week, bulls gain 7.5 points to 26.8% in the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey. The long-term average of bulls is 39%. Those bearish drop 6.3 points to 48.2% - still well above the long-term average of 30.5%. From Bespoke is this chart of the SPY vs. the AAII bulls since 2009.
Comments (3)
  • Not for nothing, but I don't see much of a correlation between AAII bullish sentiment and market returns.
    18 Apr 2013, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • How many people participate in this survey?
    18 Apr 2013, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • You can say what you want about being 'surveyed' and such but I sold SPY and SSO today in the wake of my tea leaves showing me that the bull run may be weakening. First of all, I saw the 'triple top' forming some time ago, as the S&P approached new highs and took strong note of the trouble it was showing as it approached and broke thru to new highs.
    The transports usually are a great bellweather of the health of a move, and is the Russell 2000, The DOW was the only real high flier, and in my book the DOW is not 'The Market'.
    With Transports and the R2000 underperfoming things get 'broken' and not moving together, shows me perhaps trouble afoot.

     

    Market tops don't need much of a push to shove them to much lower levels, and tops don't give warnings as nice as market bottoms which take a long time to form and give nice warnings.

     

    Given the time of year, and things that happen historically in May, I am out.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator

     

    Should we short the main market? Not just yet.
    18 Apr 2013, 12:42 PM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)