Verizon's (VZ +3.4%) 4M iPhone activations represented a 25% Y/Y increase, and 56% of total...


Verizon's (VZ +3.4%) 4M iPhone activations represented a 25% Y/Y increase, and 56% of total smartphone activations. For the second quarter in a row, the iPhone 5 made up about half of activations. But in spite of Verizon's numbers and a bullish JPMorgan note, Apple (AAPL -1.7%) has fallen below $400. With a major divergence having opened up between the iPhone's U.S. and international performance, the Street may have begun discounting the implications of Verizon/AT&T/Sprint sales for global results.

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Comments (25)
  • nguyenvanphuoc
    , contributor
    Comments (388) | Send Message
     
    Positive US growth mean negative international growth? Gotcha.

     

    Apple can't win for trying it seems. Would be great if they would actually step out from behind the curtain and do something to fix the godawful mess that is their share price.
    18 Apr 2013, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • w0uter
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    Just yesterday I read the 'analyst' predictions for Verizon iPhone activations, which were ranging from 2M at the low end to 3.5M high. Numbers come in and it's 4M. AAPL down.

     

    It's like every day we read a different BS excuse for AAPL to go down, and in the end not a single one ever stands, yet the news is all over AAPL going down the drain. There really is no sense in traders and analysts anymore it seems.
    18 Apr 2013, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • Brian Barbour
    , contributor
    Comments (1312) | Send Message
     
    its not saying positive US growth means a international decline. They are saying the iPhone 5 is not doing as well in other countries as other phones (probably because of the price)
    18 Apr 2013, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • Etoile Brilliant
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Spot on - most Fan Boys haven't cottoned on to this yet. Apple is doing great guns in the US but with only moderate success in other markets. That's how it should be priced.
    18 Apr 2013, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Applocrat
    , contributor
    Comments (1005) | Send Message
     
    again, not supported by data. look at last quarter, 18 million us activation up from about 13.6 a year ago that's about 33 percent

     

    30 million ROW phones up from about 24 a year ago that's 30 percent growth internationally.

     

    ASP was basically stable indicating stable new to old mix.
    18 Apr 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Applocrat
    , contributor
    Comments (1005) | Send Message
     
    so you have stable growth rates domestically, globally And stable asps, tell me why the iPhone is in trouble, oh and it's doing this in the face of a media and advertising blitz from the competition.
    18 Apr 2013, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • NV_GARY
    , contributor
    Comments (6347) | Send Message
     
    6/24 = 25%
    18 Apr 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • Tommy_Finger
    , contributor
    Comments (316) | Send Message
     
    Don't know if JPM still has a 725 target for Apple.

     

    Either way, AAPL is 394 and change as I type. I'd probably look for some signs of price stability before buying.
    18 Apr 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (2751) | Send Message
     
    Well, the problem is that the numbers seem good Y/Y, but sequentially is another story--VZ sold >50% more iPhones last qtr and Apple had higher market share. Also, VZ's sequential numbers were better last year--iPhone sales dropped (% and numbers) much more 4Q to 1Q this year than last year. The real scare is guidance. With all of the rumors from Digitimes about imploding demand for big iPads, then iPad minis, and today Macs, people fear terrible guidance--maybe even negative on last year's numbers. If Apple guides towards negative growth(shrinkage), then where do we go? I suspect mid 300s, but I would rather guess on how many hurricanes we will have in ten years! Good luck and be careful.
    18 Apr 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • w0uter
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    Digitimes has no credibility whatsoever, they are basically making everything they publish up as they go.

     

    People much smarter than myself have applied every single valuation method known to mankind to AAPL and it turns out that even with 0% growth the fair value of the stock is closer to the $700 high than the $400 it is valued at now. In spite of all the supply chain rumors we've been hearing about over the past 2 years, AAPL has reported revenue growth every single quarter. You tell me how the stock can ever go to $300 if it isn't by blatant stock manipulation through fake news sites such as Digitimes.
    18 Apr 2013, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • dbtunr
    , contributor
    Comments (565) | Send Message
     
    how can you compare sequential sales when your are comparing against Q4 which is always the highest quarter?
    18 Apr 2013, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (2751) | Send Message
     
    db, the main point was that the drop was bigger this year than last (4Q to 1Q).
    18 Apr 2013, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Applocrat
    , contributor
    Comments (1005) | Send Message
     
    humble, that really oughtn't to be a big deal. The drop off quarter to quarter is not a meaningful number. If we started playing numerical games like that, we could find a million false flags.
    18 Apr 2013, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (2751) | Send Message
     
    I would call Digitimes hit and miss. They have a lot of sources in China and Taiwan, so I listen to what they say. But, I sure wouldn't bet money on one of their tips! However, they have blanketed the internet with stories about imploding production at Apple in most of their product lines. Of course, that is all short term and subject to legitimate explanation. We'll see...good luck!
    18 Apr 2013, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • bgold1955
    , contributor
    Comments (2350) | Send Message
     
    Humble.... Based on VZ iPhone sales, do you have an estimate for this qtr iPhone sales? Sold 35m LY and I believe 37m is middle of analyst expectation for calendar 1st qtr. Thanks.
    18 Apr 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (2751) | Send Message
     
    Hi bgold,
    I don't think Apple will miss their numbers, despite the noise. Guidance is a huge worry for me. With production rumors slipping to CY 3rd qtr, we may be in for a shock and that is why I think it is falling--trying to discount the report. The reason I was looking at the sequential numbers in the first place was that very purpose: I was trying to estimate sales. Here are the problems. Last year the 4S rolled out later overseas (China Telecom in this last qtr!), likely increasing Int'l numbers compared to the US. Also, this year VZ has a free phone in the 4. The 4 and 4S sold like hotcakes, which continues the trend from last qtr. Both of these factors should drive VZ's % up this year. Last year's % (low 9s) of Apple's total would produce about 43mm phones! Using last quarter's % (about 13%) gives us about 30mm phones. Big difference! I suspect the 4 and 4S both sold well overseas, so I am going to guess mid 30s. They have been pushing India and some other places, so I think they can get close to 37. Sorry for the verbose answer. Good luck!
    18 Apr 2013, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • aardvark3
    , contributor
    Comments (668) | Send Message
     
    Digitimes = National Enquirer
    18 Apr 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (2751) | Send Message
     
    Aard, what is interesting is that I have felt like Apple used Digit. to leak some things in the past--pure speculation and conjecture. Interesting thought: might Apple be trying to lower expectations for the report, so they don't get another violent $70 selloff after meeting their numbers?
    18 Apr 2013, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • bgold1955
    , contributor
    Comments (2350) | Send Message
     
    Humble..... Agree, that's my number too based on last qtr VZ % of overall iPhone sales were 13% which equals this qtr 4m/0.13 = 30.77m. Was just hoping additional international telcos would decrease the 13%. Still may, understand India is stronger this year and hopefully Chinese New Year was better than last. We will see. Thanks for your thoughts.
    18 Apr 2013, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • bigAAPLNY
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    Fan boyz or not, one has to consider that there has not been an ounce of good news from anyone reporting on apple since the whole MAPS screw up. That being said, one also has to imagine that there would have been some good news in between the screw up and now, but alas, there has not. Oversold is the key word here. A 30% drop in share value is typically something we see when a company is turning the lights off or John Corzine is running your company. If you want to take sides, I would take the side of Apple releasing the next best gadgets for the next 10 years. Anyone want to do some historical or forward looking analysis on that prediction?
    18 Apr 2013, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • berylrb
    , contributor
    Comments (2374) | Send Message
     
    and consider that even the maps fiasco was a misconstrued bunch of half-truths as well.

     

    case in point: TRUTH - Google's map app for the Android was far superior than the Google map app for iOS, Android users were offered turn-by-turn. Apple, after numerous attempts to get Google to offer iOS users the same experience, said enough is enough and admittedly rushed a turn-by-turn solution to Market. SPIN/FALSE - < you pick ...>
    18 Apr 2013, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • fmlizard
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    AAPL has become a reverse bubble at this point. There is no stopping the momentum down. If you are a trader, get out now. If you are an investor, the bubble will eventually burst and it will rise significantly just as (the opposite of) all bubbles.
    18 Apr 2013, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • wiesje
    , contributor
    Comments (2846) | Send Message
     
    all these rumors from the analysts what Apple is going to do, what they should do, what new products are coming or not coming, higher dividend or no hike in dividend, additional stock buy back, this is all coming thru the rumor circuit, there is no news from Apple and as long as there is no news from Apple the stock is owned by the Trade and they can do with the share price as they please and at the moment they are fishing for stops, they know there are still some major long positions in there from hedge Funds and at every new low there is some selling from Longs giving up, the Trade is having a field day, they control the stock and Apple is doing whatever they are doing most probably looking at the technical drawings of that new building they long for, that 5 bio project and somewhere pinned on the wall is a design of an iWatch or an iTV, between the postcards from the employees from their recent trip to that lovely island called Cyprus.
    other than that it's a sunny day in California.
    Woops hey guys did you see that, it's another 2 % down today, sucks being in shares, thank God we got options in the employee trust and no stock.

     

    anyway 10 days to go and all will be revealed,
    Buy Apple scale down from here, repent, suffer but Buy
    Long Apple and adding.
    18 Apr 2013, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • NV_GARY
    , contributor
    Comments (6347) | Send Message
     
    5 DAYS TO GO
    18 Apr 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Ninja Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (1732) | Send Message
     
    wiesje...Great comment with earnings only 5 days away.

     

    Long AAPL
    18 Apr 2013, 01:22 PM Reply Like
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