Believe it or not, long-time Netflix (NFLX -35.9%) bear Whitney Tilson has established a "small...


Believe it or not, long-time Netflix (NFLX -35.9%) bear Whitney Tilson has established a "small long position" in the company today, declaring its stock to be cheap. "We hope it gets cheaper so we can add to it," says Tilson, who covered his Netflix short position when shares were above $200. (more)
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Comments (12)
  • Spencer Knight
    , contributor
    Comments (389) | Send Message
     
    Tilson's original bearish thesis was fundamentally sound. However if not for Netflix's management making poor decisions, Tilson's thesis would still be utterly wrong.

     

    He says, "it certainly highlights the importance of getting the timing right and maintaining your conviction even when the market moves against you." But Tilson is taking credit for something that should not have happened if NFLX did not turn into a greedy machine. NFLX did not crash due to high valuation, NFLX crashed because management decided to step on the shoes of customers.

     

    With that said, below is an article regarding NFLX and DISH from July 2011 that discusses how DISH can capitalize on NFLX's mistakes.

     

    http://bit.ly/vDUrFH
    25 Oct 2011, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • kknucklehead
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    He should not remind people of his notorious flop...why would we listen to him now?
    25 Oct 2011, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • klarsolo
    , contributor
    Comments (705) | Send Message
     
    I hope you have never done a mistake in investing. But if you have, maybe you shouldn't listen to yourself anymore.
    25 Oct 2011, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • squire PB
    , contributor
    Comments (48) | Send Message
     
    clearly looking at price thinking it looks like a bargain when its management she should be looking at and continue to short them until they are dumped !
    25 Oct 2011, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Liqddynamite
    , contributor
    Comments (434) | Send Message
     
    Whitney clearly does not understand what is wrong with this company. Does he realize that Netflix says it will go from $1.16 a share in Q3 2011 to LOSING MONEY in Q1 2012? That's quite a dropoff.
    25 Oct 2011, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • SA Editor Rocco Pendola
    , contributor
    Comments (6183) | Send Message
     
    And when they officially announce the loss, the stock will implode further.
    25 Oct 2011, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • decent_banker
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    make a lot of sense especially if it's done thru sell-put.
    25 Oct 2011, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • SA Editor Stephen Alpher
    , contributor
    Comments (562) | Send Message
     
    Tilson Focus Fund performance

     

    http://bit.ly/u5BnMP

     

    vs. S&P 500

     

    http://bit.ly/tfT3Lo;

     

    Tilson seems like a fine guy, a smart guy, and a good idea man, but beware of guys who go running to the press every time they initiate a position. Double beware for value managers who show up on Fast Money with regularity.
    25 Oct 2011, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • Chris Lau
    , contributor
    Comments (4165) | Send Message
     
    I sent a message to Tilson via Seeking Alpha, asking him why he did not re-initiate a short position on NFLX. Tilson was right but for the wrong reasons and worse, at the wrong time. This means he was wrong on his short thesis.

     

    He should channel check customer retention again to figure out how many more customers NFLX will lose this quarter and in the quarters ahead. Then analyze the impact on cash flow. NFLX had a life raft with its 'brilliant' plan: EMEA expansion. Thing is, this expansion isn't cheap and needs cash flow to fund.

     

    In all, NFLX strategy is growth by leverage on exceptional customer growth. That customer growth is not only gone but is imploding.
    25 Oct 2011, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • Nettligent
    , contributor
    Comments (1346) | Send Message
     
    Who is Whitney Tilson? What is Netflix?
    25 Oct 2011, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • dividend_growth
    , contributor
    Comments (2895) | Send Message
     
    Poor Whitney Tilson, everything he said last year about NFLX was right.

     

    Had he held on to this short position, he would be up by 50% instead of losing his pants.
    25 Oct 2011, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • Nettligent
    , contributor
    Comments (1346) | Send Message
     
    Follow Netflix CEO and management.
    Follow Whitney Tilson and other WallStreet Analysts.
    Follow the leader on a golden path to future: Great Leap Forward.
    26 Oct 2011, 12:51 PM Reply Like
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