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Some Apple (AAPL) commentary: 1) Horace Dediu estimates the iPhone and iPad's component costs...

Some Apple (AAPL) commentary: 1) Horace Dediu estimates the iPhone and iPad's component costs respectively rose 29% and 65% Y/Y in FQ2, well above rev. growth of 3% and 40%. This, along with a mix shift towards iPads, is mostly responsible for Apple's gross margin drop (rather than price pressure). 2) Tero Kuittinen sees similarities between 2013 Apple and 2007 Nokia. "The strongest parallel is in the weird way both companies started fighting the consumer preference for larger displays … and then dug in as margins began eroding rapidly." Tim Cook may have just hinted a bigger iPhone will eventually arrive. But how long will it take? (yesterday)
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Comments (76)
  • kbononi
    , contributor
    Comments (137) | Send Message
     
    to compare AAPL to Nokia at this point is absurd.....
    27 Apr 2013, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (2628) | Send Message
     
    That's what they said in 2007 about Nokia!
    27 Apr 2013, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • Sammy Lee
    , contributor
    Comments (318) | Send Message
     
    Nothing new to add, except that the only reason I'm holding onto my shares of Apple is the historic buyback. There is no question that Samsung is bound to do Apple what Toyota did to GM. If you don't see that you might want to go out more because everywhere I look, I see people pulling out their Samsungs and showing them off like they're new breast implants. Especially women and feminine Asian guys love those things. Not trying to be funny just calling it as it is.

     

    Very frustrating to see management continue their denial about the attractiveness of the larger screens. The more I hear Tim Cook talk the more respect I have for Steve Jobs as a human being and the more loathing and hatred I have for arrogant MBAs.
    27 Apr 2013, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • hahaha48
    , contributor
    Comments (1391) | Send Message
     
    Steve Job may be great in many area but as a human being he is not a good person at all. Tim Cook may not be a good CEO for Apple but he seems like at least is reasonable with offerings to Charity (Steve is not). I am sure many people are not sad when he pass away. I am sad Steve pass away and never had a chance to change or matured as a human being. Bill Gate on the other hand was a very bad person also when he was young and was hated by most people who have deal with him personally. He turn around completely after he get married and now most of those who hated him also have turn around and respect him as a human being.
    27 Apr 2013, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • rajesha13
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    Seriously? Leaving aside the fact that Asians love cheap products and "big" sizes, can you or anybody tell me a single innovation that Samsung has done in the mobile device (phones, tablets) space? Samsung can create multiple size tablets and large screen phones but they are dependent on Android OS and an ecosystem they don't control. I don't see any innovative feature in their phones that is revolutionary! Other than iphone 5, Apple's previous phones had significant hardware and software changes backed by hundreds of patents. I feel like Samsung is acting more like Nokia in that they are bombarding the market with mobile devices with incremental features (dual sim OR large screen) to appease the consumers in US or Asia. These consumers will the first one to switch their brand if the next thing that comes out is sexy or shiny. Its what they did to Nokia! Unlike Nokia, Samsung has been quick in playing catch up but to think that they can beat Apple in the long-term in revenue is not rational, unless, Apple completely stops innovating.
    Disclaimer: I am long in AAPL.
    28 Apr 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • techy46
    , contributor
    Comments (8352) | Send Message
     
    It's not absurd to compare them but they are nothing alike. Apple's got everything that Nokia lost and that's why Nokia went for Windows Phone. They'll be three mobile ecosystems, Android, Apple and Microsoft, and Nokia just need to be in 3rd place. Nokia can now focus on hardware devices and mobile ecosystem and leave the heavy software lifting to Microsoft and save $1-2 billion a year.
    28 Apr 2013, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • New Century
    , contributor
    Comments (140) | Send Message
     
    RIP apple
    27 Apr 2013, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • MishaF
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    Bahh
    27 Apr 2013, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Stone Fox Capital
    , contributor
    Comments (7484) | Send Message
     
    Too funny.... maybe you should wait until at least somebody has a better brand.
    27 Apr 2013, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • DIgitalMediaView
    , contributor
    Comments (668) | Send Message
     
    Apple has an ecosystem. Nokia never had an ecosystem. As the Yankee Group study recently determined, this key attribute will drive iOS market share growth over the next several years.

     

    "Samsung's Radio City Music Hall launch of its Galaxy S IV smartphone made good headlines, but consumer buying data shows that at the checkout counter, Apple continues to eat Samsung's lunch." So writes the Yankee Group's Carl Howe, in defiance of conventional wisdom…Howe's bottom line: Google's Android has probably peaked, while Apple's iOS can look forward to steady growth. The key, he says, is customer loyalty: “Apple's 'black hole' ecosystem captures subscribers who never leave, while Android smartphones are losing one out of every six customers to other manufacturers." Yankee Group forecasts iOS market share in the US to grow from 20% in 2013 to 42% in 2017, while Android is projected to remain flat at 34% from 2013 to 2017. http://bit.ly/ZVCjWb
    27 Apr 2013, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • justaminute
    , contributor
    Comments (1102) | Send Message
     
    Microsoft has an ecosystem of inter-working components from applications to development tools that keep their products in demand. Look at Outlook, Office, Sharepoint, development platforms - all of which are designed to work together. Eventually, any ecosystem reaches a saturation point where large gains in new adopters are simply less achievable. Many dislike Microsoft's ecosystem. The same can be said for Apples.
    27 Apr 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Stone Fox Capital
    , contributor
    Comments (7484) | Send Message
     
    Great point on how MSFT had an ecosystem that trapped users into the products for the last decade. The difference is that nobody liked MSFT products while everybody loves AAPL products. It will be years before people leave AAPL even if Samsung were to make better products.

     

    NOK is a horrible example. Never heard of anybody that saw NOK as a brand. The phones were always the cheap, affordable option. In fact, I never had one b/c they were never appealing.
    27 Apr 2013, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • DIgitalMediaView
    , contributor
    Comments (668) | Send Message
     
    Yes justaminute, ecosystems can be liked or disliked. The Yankee Group study and most other considered assessments (http://bit.ly/10JAJxH) determine that Apple, with half a billion iTunes customers, has an ecosystem people like. This analysis forecasts that these ecosystem attributes will help iOS continue to grow. Android's ecosystem, not so much. Nokia does not really qualify as having an ecosystem consumers can like or dislike.
    27 Apr 2013, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • justaminute
    , contributor
    Comments (1102) | Send Message
     
    "The difference is that nobody liked MSFT products while everybody loves AAPL products."

     

    That's a fallacious statement.
    27 Apr 2013, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • gensearch2
    , contributor
    Comments (1534) | Send Message
     
    It's an exaggerated statement. But there was never any love of the MSFT OS. It was something people put up with because they had to. It's still true today. Though Windows 8 is such an abysmal failure that MSFT resurrected Windows 7 for OEM installs.

     

    Then MSFT came out with an update that has hosed up a number of systems. I can't boot up or come out of sleep mode in Windows 7 without getting a failure out of Desktop Manager. Plus, there's a bug where the min/max/close in the upper right hand corner disappear in my apps. MSFT has pulled the update, but if you already installed it your either waiting for MSFT to fix it, or you use restore to move your system back in time to before the update.

     

    IMO, Windows 7 was the best OS MSFT ever put out and I thought that they finally learned how to write an OS. I was wrong. Windows 8 makes Vista look like a dream OS.
    27 Apr 2013, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • gensearch2
    , contributor
    Comments (1534) | Send Message
     
    The only thing MSFT had as an ecosystem was the OS. You weren't trapped into using their browser or Office or Outlook or any other MSFT application. If you're talking development environments that's a different animal and shouldn't even be in a discussion of ecosystem. Developement environments are unique beasts specific to an OS or other computing platform.
    27 Apr 2013, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • Ashraf Eassa
    , contributor
    Comments (9305) | Send Message
     
    >>The difference is that nobody liked MSFT products while everybody loves AAPL products.

     

    It's this nonsensical thinking that cost AAPL shareholders dearly. It's not only wrong, but it's also completely arrogant .
    27 Apr 2013, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • dmarilley
    , contributor
    Comments (619) | Send Message
     
    Windows 8 is fantastic as long as your IQ exceeds 90. AAPL is COOKED.
    28 Apr 2013, 02:13 AM Reply Like
  • Joe2922
    , contributor
    Comments (436) | Send Message
     
    Windows has always sucked, but outlook express is good. XP is the only good one, which I still use, as do millions who know better than to "downgrade" to a newer OS.
    I had an iMac 5.5 yrs., nothing special, it merely worked, and cost double.
    Nothing special or magical about Apple products, now the hype train has ended and people realize they're just like all the others, with a much higher price tag.
    Ecosystems are bad, they keep you ringed in by a fence.
    28 Apr 2013, 07:20 AM Reply Like
  • faramarz
    , contributor
    Comments (325) | Send Message
     
    @ Ashraf: the only arrogant person here is you. You often imply that your opinion is the only one that is true & should count. You often tend to erase Apple's huge succes story & customers' love & zoom on others relative successes.
    Apple has just one competitor capable of delivering as good products as Apple's & this is Samsung. The next few years will show which one will come first but, IMHO both of them will be winners of this competition. Most of the statistics are already showing this trend.
    I also think that this competition will be a great incentive for innovation for both compagnies.

     

    By the way, Apple's stock price decline in the past 6 month is not representing declining sales but declining margins & some fear & panic originated by people like you. Apple at 700 (only 16*EPS) was exaggerated but far less than Apple at 420 (9.5*EPS).
    When the dust will settle & the fear & panic disappear, Apple's stock price will return to a normal & realistic multiple (+/-13 to 15) & during this time, conservative investors (I'am not talking about traders) will also collect the +/- 2% per annum dividend.
    28 Apr 2013, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • rajesha13
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    Good point! Even I'd prefer a slightly large screen but to compromise on overall usability, device weight, interoperatiblity, backup options and apps that iPhone offers is just impossible for me. Phones like Galaxy Note are probably good for women who can keep them in their purse, for me, I always prefer something that is easy to carry in a jeans' front pocket. Anyways, the need for a large screen is overhyped and to think that a financial analyst would compare Apple to Nokia just because of this feature is irrational and irresponsible.
    28 Apr 2013, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • fuyh123
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
     
    As usual, you are wrong Ashraf. While some uninformed non tech savey long time windows user who are use to windows may not even know they don't like it because they have not experienced other OSs. and not everybody loves all aapl products, the wide spread loyalty to Apple is based on a superior experience. Aapl is in a very strong position to continue to deliver the high caliber of customer experience that it is known for and at this point there is no tangible reason other then rumor, inuendo, and bashing to believe that they cannot continue to adapt and deliver.
    28 Apr 2013, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (2628) | Send Message
     
    Yes there is - their OS is maxed out and two dimensional as compared to the potential and three dimensionality of BB10.

     

    This alone will slowly turn the tide away from AAPL.
    28 Apr 2013, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Ashraf Eassa
    , contributor
    Comments (9305) | Send Message
     
    fuyh123,

     

    >>As usual, you are wrong Ashraf

     

    Whatever you say, anonymous poster :)
    28 Apr 2013, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • fuyh123
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
     
    Really? What is so fallacious about the facts. Windows was always been critized for all it many flaws and sloppyness since the begining. It was shoved down the throats of the unknowning consumer by Billy the Pirate Gates. The new windows 8 commercials are embarressing.
    28 Apr 2013, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • BRASIL
    , contributor
    Comments (66) | Send Message
     
    Totally agree on the screen size...with summer coming, where are the guys going to carry these things.? Cargo pants might do it. The gals will always have a purse...but larger pockets will be needed by men. ....especially out on the streets of many major cities.
    29 Apr 2013, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • Vegas Ben
    , contributor
    Comments (216) | Send Message
     
    My 7" tablet easily fits into most of my pants! <-- Don't take this the wrong way!
    29 Apr 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • MishaF
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, because Nokia started to erode because they didn't ship larger display phones.

     

    Shee shee shee sheeep.
    27 Apr 2013, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • SoldHigh
    , contributor
    Comments (1013) | Send Message
     
    If we're going to look at the iPhone competent costs vs growth and then say that the mix shift is toward the iPad, shouldn't we look at the competent costs vs rev growth of the iPad? That sounds somewhat important, yet details were not mentioned.
    27 Apr 2013, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • Mortonk
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Oh dear not more Apple bad news, I'd better sell some more of my shares as they will undoubtedly never make any money ever again,fantastic insight Seeking Alpha......! Maybe I should buy CRUS based on the above or are they bound to fail too cause they are linked to Apple ? Give some constructive news rather than jumping on the overcrowded beating Apple bus for a change.
    27 Apr 2013, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • scott trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5924) | Send Message
     
    Multiple credible sources have polled smartphone users sighting negligible amount of aapl iPhone owners wish to swap over to Samsung devices ........while on the other hand 19 percent of Samsung users plan on switching over to aapl devices in near future.....
    27 Apr 2013, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • dmarilley
    , contributor
    Comments (619) | Send Message
     
    Cite the research
    28 Apr 2013, 02:15 AM Reply Like
  • scott trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5924) | Send Message
     
    dmarilley/////spoon fed....here is one, be back with more..Apple's greatest strength is in customer retention, as the survey found a whopping 91 percent of iPhone owners indicated they will buy another iPhone. Just 6 percent of iPhone owners plan to switch to an Android device.

     

    In contrast, 76 percent of customers who own an Android device said they plan to buy another one. Among the 24 percent who indicated they plan to switch, 18 percent of those are eyeing an iPhone. ..http://bit.ly/YfehLr http://bit.ly/11OxvWK
    28 Apr 2013, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • scott trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5924) | Send Message
     
    Dmarly.......... it is sighted. Do you have a comment ...
    30 Apr 2013, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • RAP77
    , contributor
    Comments (401) | Send Message
     
    What about components for Samsung? Prices for those are not rising?

     

    That isn't mentioned, it should be.
    27 Apr 2013, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • Ashraf Eassa
    , contributor
    Comments (9305) | Send Message
     
    RAP77,

     

    Samsung makes the majority of its components.
    27 Apr 2013, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • scott trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5924) | Send Message
     
    intc looking to the future, a smart move imo . straying away from msft.......out with the old in with the new ....http://cnet.co/125YjPz
    27 Apr 2013, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • RAP77
    , contributor
    Comments (401) | Send Message
     
    That's interesting. Do you know why Apple has maintained a much larger (shrinking but still nearly double) profit margin on each unit, even though they don't make their components?

     

    Is it due to labor costs?
    28 Apr 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • RaulReina
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    Ashraf,

     

    Yes Samsung makes the majority of its components but nobody knows its real unit sales even less its real costs. They never have revealed their real true numbers. Why it will be ?
    28 Apr 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • thatch
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    5" inch screen??? It better get here soon. I am a baby boomer and my excellent eyesight is going down hill fast. I didn't buy a 27" Mac because it was pretty. My eyes can squint for only so long while using my iPhone. I lost money on Nokia when they wouldn't listen to their customers. I hope Apple does a better job in this area.
    27 Apr 2013, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • justaminute
    , contributor
    Comments (1102) | Send Message
     
    Arrogance begets foolishness.
    27 Apr 2013, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • chemguy2
    , contributor
    Comments (27) | Send Message
     
    Thatch, get some glasses. I did (I'm 66), and now have no trouble reading text on the 4S. 5" phones just wear holes in your jeans pockets.
    27 Apr 2013, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • Yokyok
    , contributor
    Comments (330) | Send Message
     
    that's really hilarious. eye's are going bad and the mind's going too.
    27 Apr 2013, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • Davidoff
    , contributor
    Comments (407) | Send Message
     
    Chemguy,

     

    The thing Apple fans and Apple board didn't realize yet, is that it's a free competitive market and not some communist regime. While Apple was opening new markets they could show themselves arrogant and disrespectful towards everyone. Today, 6 years later, each company has it's own iPad and iPhone equivalent to offer, while Apple products become even more irrelevant each day. Today it's not up to the customers to fit to the Apple products, but it's up to Apple to fit to the demand of their customers. A large part of people (and personally I'm not among them) prefer big smartphone screens. What's the point of fighting people's preferences? It's simply a lost cause and the annoying advices like "hold your phone differently"(Jobs) or "buy glasses" just destroy years of marketing and make people move to some other, less sectarian brands. That pointless and unjustified arrogance as well as Apple's uncompromising position will simply prove to everyone how pathetic Apple became without Jobs at the steer. Just another descending company, in the middle of its crash after a decade of glory, following the classic market cycle.
    27 Apr 2013, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • DIgitalMediaView
    , contributor
    Comments (668) | Send Message
     
    "Pointless and unjustified arrogance as well as Apple's uncompromising position will simply prove to everyone how pathetic Apple became without Jobs at the steer."

     

    Perhaps you have not read Isaacson's Jobs biography (http://amzn.to/164FzXj). He was famous for uncompromising arrogance. You are not describing the new Apple, you are describing Job's Apple. The new Apple compromised and reinvested $100B in its shareholders.
    27 Apr 2013, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • gensearch2
    , contributor
    Comments (1534) | Send Message
     
    What people don't seem to understand is no two companies are interchangeable. AMZN isn't AAPL, nor is Samsung. AAPL. I don't expect AAPL to enter the refrigerator market anytime soon. If you compare any company to Apple you'll find a longer list of things that are make them different, then the list of things that are comparable.

     

    The same thing is true of AMZN. AMZN isn't Wal*Mart or Target or Kohl's; nor is it AAPL or GOOG. Just because two companies have competion is some space doesn't mean it's valid to compare them.

     

    As far as I'm concerned comparing NOK in 2007 to AAPL in 2013 is meaningless. You might as well compare the 2006 Washington Redskins to the 1955 Dallas Cowboys. It doesn't mean anything.

     

    While AAPL enter a new market and be wildly successful. No one "knows"; people guess.

     

    People have different priorities on products. Some people care about having an Open OS. I've never seen any compelling reason why that is good for the consumer.

     

    Some people want larger displays; some don't. Some people place a high value on the security of their mobile OS; most people could care less about security.
    28 Apr 2013, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • fuyh123
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
     
    Dave, is it your opinion that aapl product decisons are based soley on some sort of elitest arogance? You said" Today it's not up to the customers to fit to the Apple products, but it's up to Apple to fit to the demand of their customers. A large part of people (and personally I'm not among them) prefer big smartphone screens." Do you not know how much they spend to survey the market in order to determine what the majority of the consumers want and are williing to pay a premium for, and what products will be the most profitable? ( Why do you think they make 70% of the smart phone profits without selling the phones.) Maybe you think you can run the company better but I think your analysis is sorely lacking.
    28 Apr 2013, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • RSI Raistlin
    , contributor
    Comments (408) | Send Message
     
    To preface my remarks I am not long or short AAPL I've owned both Samsung products and Apple products. I don't care about itunes or supposed ecosystems or the ability to adapt the Android platform in many ways. I own multiple computers and multiple smart phones. I simply don't see the value in Apple's much higher premium anymore. In the past I did see it but the distance has been closed so if Apple does not become realistic in their pricing they will continue to erode.
    27 Apr 2013, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • DIgitalMediaView
    , contributor
    Comments (668) | Send Message
     
    Some consumers don't see the value. Worldwide AAPL has only ~20% smartphone market share, from which they generate ~70% of the market's profits. There were 200M consumers that saw the value in 2011 (http://tcrn.ch/11M357o) and now there are 500M, so in two years 150% more consumers see the value and have adopted AAPL's "supposed" high value ecosystem. Your "focus group of one" analysis is perfectly valid for what it is, but it is empirically not true for half a billion consumers.
    27 Apr 2013, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • consultnick
    , contributor
    Comments (288) | Send Message
     
    Love your concept: {"Focus group of one" analysis is perfectly valid for what it is....} Kinda like using the bible to prove what's in the bible!
    27 Apr 2013, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • DIgitalMediaView
    , contributor
    Comments (668) | Send Message
     
    Amen.
    27 Apr 2013, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • IncomeYield
    , contributor
    Comments (2643) | Send Message
     
    Anyone that lived and still lives through the WinTel kludge/multi-vendor combo knows not to mess with SamDroid. All things considered, but especially TCO, Apple is the only way to go, everyone knows it and anyone that doesn't is just fighting City Hall.

     

    That said, Apple should respond with different form factors, but easier said than done when you are making and selling very complex devices by the millions that just simply MUST work without a hiccup.

     

    Now for the cheapskates that want one device, a tweener phablet, they can wait for Apple or buy SamDroid now and convert to Apple (and they will) when the larger screen iPhone is released.
    28 Apr 2013, 12:44 AM Reply Like
  • gensearch2
    , contributor
    Comments (1534) | Send Message
     
    Are you also going to say that the Chief Strategy Officer for Samsung who uses Apple products at home because of the ecosystem is a complete moron and you have the only valid view of the stickiness of Apple's ecosystem?

     

    The stickiness of Apple's ecosystem depends on how much you've gone into it. No one says you have to use it, and apparently you have chosen not to.

     

    On the other hand, the data says that Apple users are less likely to change to other products and Android users don't enjoy that same level of loyalty.

     

    Look at Mac vs a Windows PC. I defrag my PC on a regular basis. If I turn to a Mac user they'll say "What's a defrag?" Do Windows users have "defrag" on their list of must have features for the next Window OS? I know, technically, why I do a defrag and it annoys me that in 2013 I'm doing still doing defrags.

     

    I'm really pissed off that a recent Windows update has managed to screw up my system. Windows pulled the update it screwed up so badly, but I'm paying the penalty for it. The only way out of it is to restore my system prior to the update. I can do that, but then I have to update all the apps that where update in between. That is NOT a feature I want in my OS. Between Windows 8 [which I won't get] and what they've done to me on this last update, I will never get another Windows PC. Period. I have had it up to my eyeballs with MSFT.
    28 Apr 2013, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • IncomeYield
    , contributor
    Comments (2643) | Send Message
     
    ... and Gates and his kids don't have an iPhone or iPad, but I bet his kids at school have iPads

     

    If your tele-comp productivity tools of choice are a smartphone and tablet, which Apple predicted for you in advance before you even knew it, then go Apple.

     

    Why are PC sales dropping off a cliff?
    Are all those people "morons"?

     

    If you need or want or can use a smartphone/tablet combo, then the iPhone/iPad/iCloud setup is the only way to go -- period.
    28 Apr 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • BRASIL
    , contributor
    Comments (66) | Send Message
     
    Thatch...change your text size for mail, messages, notes....makes a huge difference. I have pretty poor eyesight and use the I phone for calls and the IPad for most other things..I, myself, would not want the larger screen no matter who makes it. I am way past needing to look cool but dragging those large phones to the ear..well, they seem a bit cumbersome.
    27 Apr 2013, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • WisPokerGuy
    , contributor
    Comments (1096) | Send Message
     
    Here is the question everyone should ask themselves --- on September 1, 2012, when Apple was on it's way to a $700+ share price, what were the 12-month price targets of Mr. Dediu and Mr. Kuittinen? I don't know that answer to that, but I'll take a leap and say I bet they were significantly higher then they are today. Which means both of the analytical "experts" missed the big move downward, correct? Then why on earth would anyone pay any attention to their meaningless speculation at this point?

     

    Think about it.
    27 Apr 2013, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • Doyle3000
    , contributor
    Comments (1632) | Send Message
     
    And where is Horace getting his component cost increase information? I can't see Apple just accepting price increases that great. I lend no credence to this.

     

    Tim Cook was very accurate in his assesment of many analysts and bloggers during his 60 Minutes interview: " They take one data point, which may well be true, and extrapolate conclusions that are rarely true"
    27 Apr 2013, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • consultnick
    , contributor
    Comments (288) | Send Message
     
    As a once-upon-a-time semiconductor engineer, I found myself asking the same question....How did Horace obtain such incredibly valuable inside-manufacturing component cost-basis information from notoriously secretive Apple?

     

    Of all the possible corporate secrets, cost-basis information translates directly to bargaining leverage in supply negotiations. How stupid do we think Apple could be to publish this information? Can we imagine Apple not having inviolable disclosure agreements with suppliers themselves....Or can we even imagine the suppliers themselves not having the need to maintain absolute secrecy in their dealings with Apple?

     

    It would be suicidal marketing for a manufacturer to reveal what they get paid for on a per unit basis regarding Apple. I tend not to impart a whole lot of credence to Horace's "air guitar" efforts to precisely pinpoint component price increases to Apple.

     

    Of all of Cook's alleged "shortcomings", I would never ever begin to fault him in his specialty--supply chain management--which features "price discovery" as the MOST important primary skill!! If he decides to buy from you--he WILL get the best price in the world, and NOBODY that wants to be a supplier will reveal it! Sorry Horace.
    27 Apr 2013, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • Doyle3000
    , contributor
    Comments (1632) | Send Message
     
    Preach Brother Consultnick!
    27 Apr 2013, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • dmarilley
    , contributor
    Comments (619) | Send Message
     
    Management inability to execute at an elementary level is not a data point, it is more like shareholders being hit by a bus.
    28 Apr 2013, 02:19 AM Reply Like
  • kimboslice
    , contributor
    Comments (1683) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, they sold 38 million iPhones in 3 months and Apple is gonna be Nokia?
    Ever been to an Apple store? What do you see?
    Ever been to a Nokia store? Me neither.
    I'm a happy camper, my shares of AAPL are up 500% and now Apple gives me a free share every quarter. Oh but I am so scared that Apple is going out of business like Nokia almost has.
    ha ha ha ha ha, that's me laughing all the way to the bank.
    27 Apr 2013, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • RSI Raistlin
    , contributor
    Comments (408) | Send Message
     
    kimbo while I respect your discipline holding Apple for so long you have way too many "too the moon" and "Apple to 1000" posts for you to have serious credibility in an honest debate about Apple's future. You were saying buy Apple at 700, 600, 500, 400 and if anyone took your advice they'd be absolutely crushed at this point. There is value in the company I agree but the market is the great equalizer and its pricing trouble. Trouble you must secretly agree with because you've lost half your buying power in under a year.
    27 Apr 2013, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • justaminute
    , contributor
    Comments (1102) | Send Message
     
    Unfortunately, RSI, appealing to common sense is a waste of time on some people.
    27 Apr 2013, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • dmarilley
    , contributor
    Comments (619) | Send Message
     
    Check my record.
    28 Apr 2013, 02:21 AM Reply Like
  • rrosey2
    , contributor
    Comments (803) | Send Message
     
    It seems as though Alpha has taken on a life of its own. Every little sour grape is magnified to cause cheers from the shorts, and boos from the longs.
    There is only one way to get the big picture and that is to look from afar, dispassionately; and to understand what the reader is looking for:
    1. Short term trading.
    2. Long term investing.
    Does the analyst have established credentials, or is he trying to earn a living creating sensation after sensation?
    27 Apr 2013, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • PR Conservative
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    AAPL growth is slowing down, putting an end to the ridiculous growth estimates created by the sell side analysts. Market competitors are getting aggressive on pricing, doesn't bodes well for next year margins.
    27 Apr 2013, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • IncomeYield
    , contributor
    Comments (2643) | Send Message
     
    The estimates at the high relied upon growth curves that meant almost everyone of the 8 billion people on earth would buy an iPhone in the next 5 years or so.

     

    Not sure how or why the analysts were making those projections.
    28 Apr 2013, 12:54 AM Reply Like
  • wiesje
    , contributor
    Comments (2756) | Send Message
     
    if one cannot go by the analysts opinions, as 7 out of 10 have been doing nothing but give wrong calls on Apple and one cannot go by what comes out of Cupertino, bcse they are simply not willing to share information , then one is left to look at the charts and share price behavior and that one is crystal clear.

     

    Apple started it's huge upsurge in January 2009 coming from a 100$, with some healthy corrections it moved continuously up, making new highs all the time until reaching it's high at 700 $, the stock then for the 1st time since the start of it's surge broke an intermediate uptrend convincingly at 645 $ in December 2012 and was for the 1st time not able to move back to the highs, it sold off and reached it's support at 500$ right on the long term uptrend line, it bounced around for quite sometime, until it broke that long term uptrend, than the long term bull move came to an end, 400$ is merely an interim level, the downside objective is still 300$.
    now this can obviously all be turned around, it looked very much a few weeks ago that the stock was stabilizing, it was clean and it was forming a very good base and then Apple finally last week came with some news and instead of really boosting it's dividend to above 4% and bringing a new product, they come up with this massive stock buyback program, very risky, they are investing in their own business, they are hugely adding to risk, whereas if they had come up with a big dividend hike the pension funds wud have come in and buy the stock and take that risk.
    this buyback will hold the stock and make it maybe rally somewhat, but everybody will be buying in front of his Apple bonanza with a view to sell it to Apple at better levels, never has worked and never will, it's likely to backfire.
    Apple needs all the cash it has to fight off the competition, bring some of their production back home to reduce country exposure risks and come with new ideas and all this in a relatively short space of time.

     

    Apple is still on a down and i fear the Board has failed to turn the trend, the outlook is still for lower levels in spite of all the cash they will throw at their own stock.
    28 Apr 2013, 01:15 AM Reply Like
  • IncomeYield
    , contributor
    Comments (2643) | Send Message
     
    My point was that the year-over-year % increases in iPhone and iPad sales needed to justify the stock price targets appeared (at least to me at a glance) to project that everyone on earth would have one or both in the next 5 years.
    28 Apr 2013, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • wiesje
    , contributor
    Comments (2756) | Send Message
     
    sorry small typo mistake.. it should read broke the intermediate uptrend in October 2012, instead of December, my apologies
    28 Apr 2013, 01:20 AM Reply Like
  • ujvar
    , contributor
    Comments (152) | Send Message
     
    Apple has indeed no competition lookin on its "personality put into finest Technic". It will stay a Lion between big cats.
    28 Apr 2013, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • ujvar
    , contributor
    Comments (152) | Send Message
     
    Austrian, conservativ and also modern for Brains achievement and ai for perfection.
    28 Apr 2013, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • jinspin
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    It is Apple's arrogance that got it into trouble of Apple vs MSFT PC war that Apple lost and now its same arrogance in Apple vs Samsung Android war. Apple thinks they know best for their customers. The IOS is stale and the screen size has not changed much either. The bigger screen is what a lot of people want and Apple is ignoring them. I had Samsung galaxy S2 and loved the bigger screen and it was still comfortable to hold in hand. It is hard to go back to smaller screen feels cramped. But then I switched to iphone 5 because the apps work better and I download way more apps on iphone that I ever did on samsung. I got use to smaller screen but I would still love iphone with 5inch screen. Apple has so much money you would think they would be able to make 2 screen sizes to meet demand. Instead of trying to kill Samsung in courtroom why doesn't Apple just make bigger screen which will hurt Samsung? Because Apple is arrogant and success breeds arrogance and pride - so their vision becomes myopic. But competition is good - it is only way to make Apple change and move faster. Without Apple we would be stuck with old Nokia push button phones and without Samsung Apple would still be making small 3.5 inch screens.
    28 Apr 2013, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • CLAUDE SEGUY
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    Thatch, I sympathize with your eyes degradation. As time goes by perhaps Apple should consider a 6" screen or 7" or 8".
    It would be cheeper to buy a pair of glasses. I did it and it works.
    No offense.
    28 Apr 2013, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • CLAUDE SEGUY
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    Some prefer to drive a Ferrari, some like the Volkwagen. I like Apple better
    28 Apr 2013, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • irwinheller
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    I don't know that much about technicals .I own Apple stock and think if they come out with a variety of size phones for more people and a less expensive phone for international I think the Apple story will change .Apple reminds me of the Tiffany brand of smart phones.A less expensive phone doesn't have to be a cheaper phone.A quality phone less expensive phone would probably change their margins but expand on the revenues.A buy back is positive for the earning short term but they must start looking at their competition and act on it.Look at Amazon selling at extraordinary price to earnings,make no money on their inferior Kindle.I can't understand people buying this stock.Apple is a strong company financially and not in business to lose money.
    28 Apr 2013, 08:31 PM Reply Like
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