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Large increases in the value of bonds have boosted the three-decade return on Treasurys to above...

Large increases in the value of bonds have boosted the three-decade return on Treasurys to above that of equities for the first time in 150 years. On average, long-term government bonds have gained an annual 11.5% since 1981, exceeding the 10.8% increase in the S&P 500.
Comments (6)
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10143) | Send Message
     
    Ok what about the next 30 years...
    31 Oct 2011, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14131) | Send Message
     
    If this isn't a buy signal for equities and a caution signal for bonds, I'm not sure what would qualify.
    31 Oct 2011, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • XRE investments
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    does the 10.8% gain for the S&P include dividends?
    31 Oct 2011, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • Conventional Wisdumb
    , contributor
    Comments (1802) | Send Message
     
    Siegel doesn't offer his data for free.

     

    This website "moneychimp" has a custom range calculator for returns so that you can get the CAGR for any period that you want to see.

     

    According to their data, provided by Professor Shiller, it includes dividends on a total return basis:

     

    http://bit.ly/vFOfUm

     

    From Jan 1, 1981 to Dec 31, 2010 the CAGR is 10.74%.
    31 Oct 2011, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • Conventional Wisdumb
    , contributor
    Comments (1802) | Send Message
     
    Factoring in the risk-adjusted return makes this scenario simply astounding - talk about turning conventional wisdom on its head.
    31 Oct 2011, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    be greedy when others are fearful, be fearful when others are...

     

    this data needs to be viewed in th econtext of risk adjusted returns

     

    these trends mean revert

     

    always have, always will

     

    E
    31 Oct 2011, 11:56 AM Reply Like
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