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April Nonfarm Payrolls: +165K vs. consensus +145K, 138K previous (revised from +88K)....

April Nonfarm Payrolls: +165K vs. consensus +145K, 138K previous (revised from +88K). Unemployment rate 7.5% vs. consensus 7.6%, 7.6% previous.
Comments (43)
  • Jason Tillberg
    , contributor
    Comments (1268) | Send Message
     
    .2 hour drop month over month... that's rare and big.

     

    Market needs to digest this factor.
    3 May 2013, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • poclerk
    , contributor
    Comments (423) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I agree. That drop in average weekly hours worked, from 35.6 to 35.4, is huge. It is equivalent in economic impact to losing 600 thousand jobs. I will be looking to add to some bond CEF holdings today and will probably sell stock funds.
    3 May 2013, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • jumpnjoey77
    , contributor
    Comments (818) | Send Message
     
    Lots of companies are using part time workers. It is the German model.
    3 May 2013, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • Ohrama
    , contributor
    Comments (532) | Send Message
     
    Could it be related to "Reducing the hours worked per employee" to get away from Obama mandated health care for all employees? Yes, I was thinking of calculating what this means overall and 600K jobs lost looks reasonable.
    And this: The broad U-6 unemployment rate actually ticked higher to 13.9% in April. The culprit is a big 278K uptick in those working "part time for economic reasons." The U-6 was 14.5% a year ago.
    3 May 2013, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • Topcat
    , contributor
    Comments (490) | Send Message
     
    That does kick in until Jan 2014 though correct?
    3 May 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • dvargasr
    , contributor
    Comments (311) | Send Message
     
    The numbers are good no matter how Fox pundits try to twist it into a negative. Employment keeps growing at a stable pace. The economy keeps going in the same direction despite march numbers, which by the way were revised upward.

     

    The 0.2 can be just a by product of statistics. Blaming Obamacare has no substance on it. Besides, when Obamacare kicks on January people are going to love it. So stop whining, it is here to stay.
    3 May 2013, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • SoCalNative
    , contributor
    Comments (587) | Send Message
     
    @dvargasr: you left out it's Bushs' fault. Other than that, you're good.
    3 May 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • pollyserial
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    CEF is a brilliant idea. Apparently a lot of other folks just had the same idea.
    3 May 2013, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • Jason Tillberg
    , contributor
    Comments (1268) | Send Message
     
    I wrote up an article .. it's worse that I thought.
    3 May 2013, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • noobie107
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    Can I ask how you got the 600k figure?
    4 May 2013, 12:59 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10414) | Send Message
     
    Strong number...leading indicators inside the numbers still positive
    3 May 2013, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Lakeaffect
    , contributor
    Comments (1180) | Send Message
     
    leading indicators? such as industries added vs lost? Hours worked? Pay per hour? What leading indicator are you referencing?
    3 May 2013, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10414) | Send Message
     
    Year over year private payroll number now back above 2 million....now
    2.166 million.....recession threshold substantially lower than the 2.166 million number
    3 May 2013, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    I just don't believe any of it anymore. A number comes out, it gets adjusted later. At this point no one can possibly believe these numbers reflect reality. How many people have just fallen off the cliff (e.g. no longer looking for work, working part-time, unemployment benefits exhausted, etc)

     

    These numbers may make some people feel better but they make me uneasy. I feel that the rug that all of the dirt is being swept under has a huge bulge in the center.
    3 May 2013, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • nashbyron
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    Time to lay off the Fox News.
    3 May 2013, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • SoCalNative
    , contributor
    Comments (587) | Send Message
     
    @nashbryon: do you know Terry?
    3 May 2013, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3392) | Send Message
     
    Does it bother you because the numbers do not correlate to your belief system?
    3 May 2013, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    No, it does not have anything to do with my belief system. Honestly, do you think there is only 7.5% of the population unemployed? Especially when non-farm payroll increased by only 165k? The numbers just don't wash.
    3 May 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • GotLife
    , contributor
    Comments (1364) | Send Message
     
    Look at ADP. Compare. I trust their data more than the first version government data samples.

     

    BL monthly downward revision to follow.
    3 May 2013, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    It has nothing to do with Fox News. Rather, its has everything to do with logical deduction.
    3 May 2013, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • levitation
    , contributor
    Comments (14) | Send Message
     
    This is great news, we have come a long way from 9% in 2011. Bernanke has done a wonderful job finding ways to increase employment and production levels. Hopefully the market recognizes this and gets us up to 2000 S&P by year end.
    3 May 2013, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • SoCalNative
    , contributor
    Comments (587) | Send Message
     
    Ah, the trolls are back.
    3 May 2013, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • DOGS THAT BARK
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    What is mindboggling to me is how the methods they use to calculate can be over 50% off (adjustment last month)

     

    ..Or has their "new method" of calculating jobs being implemented now?
    3 May 2013, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • mickmars
    , contributor
    Comments (1323) | Send Message
     
    Why are futures positive on this good news?
    3 May 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • cyrus trask
    , contributor
    Comments (171) | Send Message
     
    Good news is good news. Bad news is good news.

     

    It's a win-win situation.
    3 May 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10414) | Send Message
     
    Love the misreads of the numbers...excellent...
    3 May 2013, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (636) | Send Message
     
    165k are good numbers but.
    "In April, the number of persons employed part time for economic
    reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers)
    increased by 278,000 to 7.9 million." U6 rose slightly to 13.9.
    Household data sched A numbers in thousands.
    Employment rose from approx 142 in April 2012 to apprx 144 in April 2013 an increase in jobs approx 2 million, but the Not in Labor number
    also increased by approx 2 million.
    3 May 2013, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (3205) | Send Message
     
    As Bespoke put it: "Has a 165K job report ever been so well received" Between all the revisions and seasonal adjustments they may want to look at a more credible way to count .To put it in proper perspective worlds 2nd largest economy China averages over 1 million jobs a month created each and every month. Thats where the jobs growth is. http://bit.ly/16yQ2KH.
    Here they get excited with 165K
    3 May 2013, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14395) | Send Message
     
    june:

     

    Let's see, China has 4.5 times as many people as the U.S., so on a relative basis their "million jobs a month" is more like 222 thousand on equivalent terms.

     

    Oh, and China's counting is absent question, but the U.S. is not "credible?"

     

    Lastly, nobody will ever make an intelligent investment decision if their basis for doing so is counting employed warm bodies.
    3 May 2013, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (3205) | Send Message
     
    Population and economies are not the same thing. Lot of population in Africa, they call that area part of the third world.

     

    You ever heard of outsourcing Im pretty sure you have You prefer the link about the 2.3 millions jobs outsourced from the US overseas in 2011. .http://bit.ly/ZFd5jc I said China is where the jobs are.

     

    I didn't say anything about investing decisions. I don't confuse the economy and wall street. That message is for the CNBC and financial media viewers
    3 May 2013, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • Teutonic Knight
    , contributor
    Comments (2586) | Send Message
     
    Another one deliverable by the invincible team of the wonder boy and the professor - the dynamic duo, rolling the dice, victory unto victories!

     

    Long live the wonder boy and the professor! Rejoice in the buying binge of the Euphoria now!
    3 May 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10414) | Send Message
     
    Ever think that Obama and Bernanke might not have as much effect on the economy as you think???
    3 May 2013, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • nightfly
    , contributor
    Comments (1017) | Send Message
     
    Explicity, that is certainly the case; however, the "power of the Bernak Put", etc. has and continues to have its power.

     

    And if you don't think this rally is liquidity driven, not only by the US Fed but buy the FX carry, JPY, and EU cheap money regimes, well, I will not be able to convince you that you have a nose on your face.

     

    Earning are and have been continuing to trend down since '11. You would think that would matter to the market, but here we are are all time new highs.
    3 May 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • GotLife
    , contributor
    Comments (1364) | Send Message
     
    Down goes the dollar so it takes more to acquire assets. The Professor tries to inflate housing but the consumer desire for that asset is in the toilet, even if they had the credit worthiness to act.

     

    Worthy of a shell game. When it ends the uninformed will be startled to find their shell contains...nothing! And, prices will be rolling out of sight. The "volatile" food sector will only be volatile upwards, a trend its been on since the pump began in 09, and at an all time high, while China goods will be cheap no more.

     

    Thank you Gentle Ben. The other guy will be blaming Congress and deep into planning a library in Hawaii.

     

    Aloha!
    3 May 2013, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (636) | Send Message
     
    PaRTYiNG LiKe IT'S 1929...

     

    http://bit.ly/7rW9v5~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/b...
    3 May 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (3205) | Send Message
     
    It ain't the 165K jobs doing it that's for sure. 23% of the GDP is federal $ now. Not a serious economist will tell you not for massive increases in federal spending GDP growth in this country would be - 4 or 5% a yr (and Im no big tax fan).Jobs are in China. Technology does the rest.They love Obama ; he delivered with increased federal spending, appointed a CITI guy as his treasury sec. before that a NY fed guy, a former Lehman guy to the Fed, whats there not to like The rest is for the voters and viewers.
    3 May 2013, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • Financehulligan
    , contributor
    Comments (1079) | Send Message
     
    Can´t see any reason for FED to not put a stop at once with QE. Building asset-bubbles will only creat more problems in the long run.
    3 May 2013, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • caupachow
    , contributor
    Comments (472) | Send Message
     
    @finance too much logic in your thinking. in another quarter I bet the fed doubles down on QE.

     

    AND I don't think the problems are that far in the long run. Mid 2014 the ship hits iceberg.
    3 May 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • CW2
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
     
    Just to clear up a previous statement regarding work hours. The actual number from the bls is; The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.2 hour in April to 34.4 hours.
    3 May 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (636) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/11HuYvJ
    3 May 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (636) | Send Message
     
    Voluntary plus involuntary part-time employment rose by a whopping 441,000 jobs. Take away part-time jobs and there is not all that much to brag about. Indeed, full-time employment fell once again, this month by 148,000.
    Read more at http://bit.ly/1666Dpj
    3 May 2013, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • The EconomicJoker
    , contributor
    Comments (961) | Send Message
     
    What a bunch of BS! Retail is falling off a cliff.. Where is the real hiring coming from, cause it's not there.
    3 May 2013, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • EK1949
    , contributor
    Comments (1672) | Send Message
     
    The sequester cuts are hurting the economy worse than I originally thought. Obama thought sequester would be a Doomsday device that would force Congress to do a better deal. That was a mistake. A better deal is exactly what Congress doesn't want, except where it affects them directly like flight delays.

     

    It's a shame, I've seen an estimate that without the sequester growth would be at 4% by now. If cuts do this much damage, cancelling them and adding a small stimulus package would get us to 5% growth in a few months. QE would be over by the end of the year.
    3 May 2013, 04:27 PM Reply Like
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