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"Bonds are acting like the bond market is manipulated ... because it is," says Jeff Gundlach, as...

"Bonds are acting like the bond market is manipulated ... because it is," says Jeff Gundlach, as QE is far more of a put on Treasury prices (TLT -2.3%) than it is on stocks. A salve to bond bulls on a day when the yield on the 30-year is 14 bps higher, Gundlach says yields won't go on a sustained rise anytime soon because QE is going nowhere. A favorite of the bond bears, TBT +4.6%.
Comments (7)
  • baseballman24
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    got into the TBT last week and at the yield I will pay it and wait. I will own it and wear it for the next 10 years!
    3 May 2013, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • 10499391
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    You may be a year too early on TBT. It will only go down until rates go up.
    4 May 2013, 01:54 AM Reply Like
  • cognitorex
    , contributor
    Comments (140) | Send Message
     
    To keep idle hands busy I recently began toying with TBT, mostly selling put option positions feeling that the case for higher rates over the long term was inching out to the market. Sell my very short term puts when TBT dips, buy back for profit and wait for next cycle was game. Easy game!

     

    Oops! Then Mr Abe, Japanese Prime Minister, decides to buy $$Trillions or Yen trillions in bonds to spur growth...just absolutely smashing the game. Half my winnings of $800, poof. Not fair . Abe enomics, smabe enomics.

     

    Happy note, was, out of habit (or fear while playing with loaded toys (options)), hedged.

     

    Oh and we've gone from being quite sure the USA economic engine was modestly robust and steady 60 days ago (TBT $70) to pretty much certain weakness world wide up til Thursday (TBT $59). Just got a feeling that the world wide economic swoon or tremblings of swoon will revisit our portfolios a number of times in the coming months...of course that's the game, isn't it.

     

    Think I'll short TBT if it hits $64.80. But then, that there UK pound looks overvalued. Maybe I'll stick to golf, fewer Japanese ministers to screw up my game!!
    4 May 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • hahaha48
    , contributor
    Comments (1078) | Send Message
     
    Fridays move is too much for tbt. I almost enter a losing trade on Thursday trying to sell some 60 calls for next week because I have covered call at 60 for last Friday and never can imagine it would jump that much over 60. It is good for me because the premium for tbt will be high for a while and i'll short some put again when it comes back down to near 60.
    4 May 2013, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • cognitorex
    , contributor
    Comments (140) | Send Message
     
    hahaha48 I feel like our trading styles and philosophy are quite similar....nice to see.
    Your, play with a stock for a while...get to know its action' is a must.
    I call my style, the Satre-Costanza -NyQuill style.
    Satre: there are no rules, no "knowing."
    Costanza: the opposite action to a choice may well be the correct choice, and regularly the right choice.
    NyQuill: take actions that allow me to sleep peacefully: (use the market's premium to gain edge) and hedge.
    Happy trading
    PS, while you were pioneering Fortran, early 70's, I was writing business thesis on technical trading which then was almost unknown to the man on the street and few professionals.
    6 May 2013, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • Great Swami
    , contributor
    Comments (626) | Send Message
     
    Ten year is going to 1%....where do you think that will send TBTs price.
    I took a large position in TBT three years ago. Closed it this week
    Someday this will be a great play but not in the near future
    5 May 2013, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • baseballman24
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    TBT not good today? I have news for everyone I will hold this for 10 years and the current decay is a joke. Nobody rigns bells at the bottom or top, rates will go up I know this to be true, when well I have no idea and own the middle of the curve, so for me TBT is just a hedge.
    13 May 2013, 02:14 PM Reply Like
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