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  • Friday, September 19, 2014

  • 3:25 PM
    • The Sensex edged higher this week, bringing its 6-week move to a gain of 7%, and its YTD advance to 28%. The big gain this week came amid a rare visit from China's premier and the pledging of $20B in investments in India over the next five years.
    • Credit Suisse this week says India's banks - despite maybe being the most richly valued in Asia - have upside. They trade at 3x trailing book value, but that's inline with their 10-year average. What they have going for them now is improved governance, an accelerating economy, and interest rate hikes now in the rearview mirror. The team's favorite plays (trading in the States): ICICI Bank (IBN -1.8%), HDFC Bank (HDB -0.8%).
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  • 12:25 PM
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  • 12:03 PM
    • The latest Datafoha poll shows challenger Marina Silva with just a two percentage point lead over incumbent Dilma Rousseff should the two meet in a runoff election.
    • To review, the general election - with three main candidates - is October 5. If no one candidate gets 50% of the vote, the top two would face off in a 2nd round on October 26.
    • A current first-round poll show Rousseff getting 37% of the vote, Silva 30%, and 17% for Aecio Neves.
    • The Bovespa is lower by 1.1%. EWZ -1.4%
    | 1 Comment
  • 10:36 AM
    • Car Inc. launched its IPO in Hong Kong earlier today.
    • The company is the largest car rental company in China with a fleet size of 52.5K vehicles.
    • Hertz (HTZ +0.8%) is a major partner of Car Inc. and pushed in another $30M investment today.
    • Shares of Car Inc. closed 29% over their initial price in Hong Kong trading.
  • 9:09 AM
    • If a mega-merger occurs inside the beer industry, it could advance the debate on the corporate tax law structure in the U.S., reasons WSJ's Ronald Barusch.
    • Though Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE:BUD), Heineken (OTCQX:HEINY), and SABMiller (OTCPK:SBMRY) are all domiciled outside of the U.S., and any combination wouldn't involve a tax inversion move, Barush notes the heavy influence of the brewers in the U.S. will highlight again the advantage of setting up headquarters outside U.S.borders for global sellers.
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  • 8:59 AM
    • The pace of core inflation in Canada popped to 2.1% in August from 1.7% in July. On a monthly basis, core inflation rose 0.5%, the fastest pace since May, and ahead of expectations for a 0.2% gain.
    • The Bank of Canada's forecast is for inflation to average 1.7% in Q3 and 1.8% in Q4.
    • The loonie (NYSEARCA:FXC) is ahead by 0.4% and buying $0.9178.
    • Canada equity ETFs: EWC, CNDA, EWCS, FCAN, QCAN
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  • 8:21 AM
    • The boomerang turns around on Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE:BUD) after the company was one of the first major NFL sponsors to call out the league for its handling of recent scandals.
    • The global brewer has been a target of criticism from some consumer groups and in editorials for being the wrong company to take the moral high ground .
    • The Daily Show didn't go easy on A-B (video clip) one little bit.
  • 7:38 AM
    • Stocks in Madrid (NYSEARCA:EWPalso breath a sigh of relief following Scotland's vote not to secede from the U.K. Earlier this month, 1.8M rallied in Barcelona to demand a vote on independence for Catalonia - something the Spanish government says is illegal.
    • Despite warnings from Madrid, the pro-separatist Catalan government plans to hold a non-binding independence referendum on Nov. 9, and a bill approving this vote is could be approved today. Scotland's "No" vote, however, just might halt, or at least slow the process. "There will not be a legal referendum now, in my view, which is positive for Spain and Europe," says CM Capital Markets' Predrag Dukic.
    • The IBEX is up 0.5%.
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  • 6:55 AM
    • Heineken (OTCQX:HEINY) confirms it has initiated a CFO succession review.
    • Rene Hooft Graafland's term as CFO is set to expire in April of 2015.
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  • 6:42 AM
    • GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE:GSK) will pay a $488M fine after being found guilty by a Chinese court for bribing doctors to promote use of its medicines.
    • Former head of GSK’s China business, Mark Reilly, and four other senior Chinese GSK managers pleaded guilty to the charges, and received suspended prison sentences of between two and four years.
    • Glaxo could also face further action at a corporate level from U.S. and U.K. authorities which have the power to punish the company for overseas corruption.
  • 6:00 AM
    • Japan +1.58%.
    • Hong Kong +0.57%.
    • China +0.58%.
    • India -0.08%.
    • London +0.66%.
    • Paris +0.54%.
    • Frankfurt +0.79%.
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  • 4:31 AM
    • Arkema (OTC:ARKAF) has made a €1.7B ($2.2B) offer for Total's (NYSE:TOT) adhesives business Bostik, which follows last week's reports that the French oil major was looking to sell the business. Arkema itself was spun out of Total in 2006.
    • In recent years Total has announced its plans to sell between $15B-$20B of non-oil-producing assets and others with falling profitability by 2015, as part of a program to improve its cash flow and profitability.
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  • 3:35 AM
    • Japanese stocks soared to a seven-year high this morning following the yen's sharp drop on Scotland's independence and the announcement of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's pension reform plans.
    • The Nikkei climbed 1.6% to 16,321.17, its highest closing level since 2007. The Topix rose 1.1% to 1,331.91, while the JPX-Nikkei Index 400 gained 1.2% to 12,085.85.
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  • 3:02 AM
    • European equity futures (NYSEARCA:EWU) indicate positive opens following Scotland's "no" vote. Euro STOXX 50 futures is up 1%, while FTSE 100 futures indicates U.K. markets could open up 1.1%. Pound futures (NYSEARCA:FXB) are up about 0.5%.
    • With 31 of 32 constituencies now final, unionists had won 55% of the vote and separatists had 45%.
    • Shares of stocks exposed to Scotland like Royal Bank of Scotland (NYSE:RBS) and Lloyds (NYSE:LYG) indicate early gains of 2-3%.
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  • 2:52 AM
    • Vivendi (OTCPK:VIVHY) has signed a final agreement to sell its Brazilian wireline carrier GVT to Telefonica (NYSE:TEF) in a deal worth around €7.2B (9.3B) in cash and shares.
    • Vivendi will also receive a 7.4% stake in Telefonica Brasil (NYSE:VIV), at a stock market value of €2B, and a 5.7% stake in Telecom Italia (NYSE:TI), valued at €1B as of Sept. 18.
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  • 2:37 AM
    • Citigroup (NYSE:C) urged a U.S. appeals court yesterday to reverse Judge Thomas Griesa's ruling which blocks payments on $8.4B of Argentina's bonds until the country settles with holdout creditors.
    • Despite the bank's lawyer's pleas of "a serious and imminent hazard," the three-judge panel seemed unmoved.
    • By Sept. 30, Citigroup must choose between defying a New York court order or face regulatory and criminal sanctions from Argentina should it not process the upcoming $5M payment.
    • ETFs: ARGT
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  • Thursday, September 18, 2014

  • 9:22 PM
    • Just two of thirty-two regions have reported, but those in favor of Scotland staying in the U.K. have a comfortable lead. The story of the evening so far is remarkably high turnout - most regions are in the 80-90% range; this compared to the 60% range for recent general elections.
    • It's still very early and results from the heavily populated areas of Edinburgh, Glasgow, and Aberdeen aren't due until midnight eastern daylight time.
    • The pound (NYSEARCA:FXB) is higher by 0.7% to $1.6510, and FTSE 100 (NYSEARCA:EWU) futures are up 0.45%.
  • 3:29 PM
    • Toyota (NYSE:TM) will recall 20K late-model vehicles due to a potential issue with fuel leaks.
    • The recall includes models from 2014 and 2015 with the 2GR-FE engine.
    • The vehicles were manufactured at Toyota's U.S. plants.
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  • 2:04 PM
    • Honda (HMC +1.6%) will price its fuel cell vehicle entry close to the same level as Toyota's (TM +1.7%) FCV, according to Nikkei.
    • The vehicle is expected to list at ¥7M-¥8M ($63.9K-$73.1K).
    • Both automakers are expecting substantial subsidies from the Japanese government to incentive consumers.
  • 10:49 AM
    • India's largest trade deficit with any single country is with China, and Chinese President Xi Jinping - visiting PM Modi in New Delhi - pledged to invest $20B over five years to help narrow the difference.
    • China is India's largest trade partner, with the two doing $68.5B of business last year, and India posting a trade shortfall of $34.4B. Xi's visit follows one from Japanese PM Shinzo Abe at which he pledged more than $30B in Indian infrastructure investments.
    • The Sensex gained 1.8% overnight. EPI +3.1%, PIN +2.5%.
    • ICICI Bank (IBN +3.1%), HDFC Bank (HDB +1.3%), Tata Motors (TTM +1.6%)
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