Seeking Alpha
  • Saturday, December 20, 2014

  • 11:59 AM
    • Fast-casual restaurants grew comparable-store sales 8% in Q3, a pace of restaurant industry out-performance forecast to have continued into Q4.
    • Panera Bread (NASDAQ:PNRA) and Noodles (NASDAQ:NDLS) have both gone through some growing pains, but are hitting the innovation lever (Panera 2.0, catering, mobile).
    • While Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) remains the major success story in the segment with a string of double-digit comp quarters, new concepts are drawing interest.
    • IPO-launched Habit Restaurants (NASDAQ:HABT) has the type of on-trend concept (low average check, quick service) and projected growth track (104 units to 2K) that could bring in momentum investors.
    • In the fast-casual pizza sub-segment it's wide open. Project Pie, RedBrick Pizza, PizzaRev (NASDAQ:BWLD), Blaze, Pieology, and Pie Five Pizza all have an innovative approach. Expect a fast-casual pizza IPO from at least one of the players in 2015.
    | 1 Comment
  • Friday, December 19, 2014

  • 5:46 PM
     
    • Bloomberg reports Fitbit, the unquestioned leader in the growing health/fitness tracker market, has hired Morgan Stanley to take it public next year. A source says an IPO could raise $150M.
    • NPD estimates Fitbit accounted for 67% of all "activity tracking devices" sold in the U.S. last year, and 77% of all "full body activity trackers." Canalys estimates Fitbit was responsible for 50% of the global Q1 market for smart wearable bands (pegged at 2.7M units).
    • While rival Jawbone remains a threat, smartwatches are naturally viewed as the big one long-term. The Apple Watch, packed with health/fitness-related sensors, is set to begin shipping in early 2015. Meanwhile, a slew of OEMs have announced and/or launched smartwatches running Google's Android Wear platform. For now, Fitbit/Jawbone maintain a pricing edge.
    | Comment!
  • 1:25 PM
    • Recent online lending IPOs LendingClub (LC -5%) and OnDeck (ONDK -7.4%) are each seeing big losses.
    • LendingClub is still up 71% from its $15 IPO price, with bulls trumpeting the disruptive impact of P2P lending and bears questioning the company's steep multiples (previous).
    • OnDeck, whose steep small business lending rates and balance sheet risk have sparked criticism, is up a relatively modest 20% from its $20 IPO price.
    | 4 Comments
  • 7:54 AM
    | 1 Comment
  • Thursday, December 18, 2014

  • 1:01 PM
    • IPO Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:BLCM) debuts strongly. Shares are up 41% on turnover of 6.3M. Juno Therapeutics (Pending:JUNO) is on deck for tomorrow.
    • Previously: Bellicum Pharma on deck for IPO (Dec. 10, 2014)
    | Comment!
  • 8:06 AM
    | Comment!
  • Wednesday, December 17, 2014

  • 10:33 AM
    • After pricing its 10M-share IPO at $20 (above a $16-$18 range), OnDeck (NYSE:ONDK) opened at $26.50 and is now at $26.75, up 33.8%.
    • The online small business lender is valued at $1.78B. Revenue for the nine months ending Sep. 30 was only $107.6M, albeit up 156% Y/Y. Net loss was $14.4M, and historical loan originations total $1.7B.
    • P2P lending giant LendingClub (LC +1.4%), which delivered a blockbuster IPO last week, is up modestly. Its gains come even though Compass Point has launched coverage with a Sell rating and $19 target.
    • SA author Larry Abrams suggests investors tread cautiously with OnDeck. "We would avoid investing in OnDeck's stock as the company's business is dependent on 'treadmill' leading practices that binds borrowers to ongoing refinance ... OnDeck is not LendingClub. It has substantial balance sheet risk as it books most of its originations with offsetting liability."
    • Prospectus, IPO preview
    | Comment!
  • Tuesday, December 16, 2014

  • 11:33 AM
    | 2 Comments
  • Monday, December 15, 2014

  • 10:58 AM
    • Coronado Biosciences (CNDO -12.8%) prices its initial public offering of 4M units of CB Pharma Acquisition Corp. (CNLMU) at $10 per unit. Each unit consists of one common share, one right to receive 1/10 of a common share on the consummation of an initial business combination and one redeemable warrant. Closing date is December 17.
    • Previously: CB Pharma on deck for IPO (Nov. 21, 2014)
    | Comment!
  • Friday, December 12, 2014

  • 4:19 PM
    • Workiva (NYSE:WK) opened right at its $14 IPO price and closed at $13.76, 1.7% below it.
    • The cloud risk/compliance reporting software vendor is worth $544M. With revenue for the nine months ending Sep. 30 totaling $82.6M (+34% Y/Y), that suggests it's valued at less than 5x 2014 sales.
    • Prospectus, IPO preview, analysis
    | Comment!
  • 12:41 PM
    • After pricing its 6.64M-share IPO at $8 (well below a prior $12-$14 range), Connecture (NASDAQ:CNXR) opened at $9.25 and is now at $8.73, up 9.1%.
    • The online health insurance marketplace is valued at $189M. Revenue for the nine months ending Sep. 30 totaled $56.8M (+70% Y/Y).
    • Prospectus, IPO preview
    • Prior Connecture coverage
    | Comment!
  • 10:54 AM
    • Hortonworks (NASDAQ:HDP) opened at $24 and is now at $24.13, up 50.8% from its $16 IPO price.
    • Hortonworks, one of the two most prominent developers (along with Intel-backed Cloudera) of software distributions for the Hadoop big data framework, is now worth just over $1B, or ~15x gross billings from the 12 months ending Sep. 30.
    • Yahoo's (YHOO +1.1%) 7.6M-share (16.8%) stake is worth $183M. Teradata's (TDC -1.4%) 2.9M-share (7%) stake is worth $70M.
    • Prospectus, IPO analysis
    • Prior Hortonworks coverage
    | 9 Comments
  • 10:27 AM
    | Comment!
  • 9:35 AM
    • Software analytics tool supplier New Relic (NYSE:NEWR) has priced its 5M-share IPO at $23, above an elevated $20-$22 range. Shares begin trading today.
    • New Relic's prices implies a valuation of $1.06B for the fast-growing Splunk rival. All signs point to a strong debut.
    • Prospectus, IPO preview, analysis
    • Prior New Relic coverage
    | Comment!
  • 7:50 AM
    • Workiva (NYSE:WK) prices its IPO at $14 per share which lands the offering right smack in the middle of the indicated range.
    • The SaaS provider will begin trading on the NYSE later today.
    • SEC Form S-1
    | Comment!
  • 7:13 AM
    • Below its expected range of $21-23, Avolon (NYSE:AVOL) has priced its IPO of 13.6M shares at $20 per share, valuing the Irish plane leasing firm at $1.6B.
    • The stock will begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange today.
    | Comment!
  • 7:03 AM
    • Metaldyne Performance (NYSE:MPG) has priced its IPO of 10M common shares at $15/share.
    • The stock will begin trading this morning on the New York Stock Exchange.
    | Comment!
  • 12:31 AM
    • Hortonworks (Pending:HDP) has priced its 6.25M-share IPO at $16, above a conservative $12-$14 range.
    • The Hadoop software vendor is valued at $666M, or 10x its gross billings for the 12 months ending Sep. 30. Shares begin trading on Friday.
    • Prospectus, IPO analysis
    • Prior Hortonworks coverage
    | Comment!
  • Thursday, December 11, 2014

  • 11:40 AM
    • After pricing its 16M-share IPO at $13.50 (the middle of a $12.50-$14.50 range), MOMO opened at $14.23 and is now at $15.17, up 12%.
    • The Alibaba-backed Chinese chat app/social network owner is worth $2.8B. Its revenue for the first nine months of 2014 only totaled $26.2M, but that's up from less than $1M in the year-ago period.
    • Prospectus, IPO preview, analysis
    • Prior Momo coverage
    | Comment!
  • 10:46 AM
    • LendingClub (NYSE:LC) opened at $24.75 and is now at $24.43, up 63% from its elevated $15 IPO price.
    • The P2P lending leader is valued at $8.8B. For reference, its revenue for the first nine months of the year (though up 123% Y/Y) was only $143.9M.
    • Prospectus. IPO analysis: I, II.
    • Prior LendingClub coverage
    | 10 Comments
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