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Market Currents Tuesday, December 23, 2008 Today's
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  • 05:36 PM WHAT THEY SAID THEN: NYMag takes a cynical look back at 2008's guru picks. Comment!
  • 05:25 PM SMART MONEY, R.I.P.: The ninth year of the 21st century officially marked the end of this era's "smart money." Comment!
  • 05:16 PM Through Monday, Treasurys have returned a remarkable 14.3% in 2008. Chances of a repeat performance in 2009 are slim. "If you missed it this year, you won’t get it next year," Van Hoisington, president of Hoisington Investment Management says. Comment!
  • 05:07 PM There's no doubt that T-Mobile's (DT) G1 (GOOG) mobile phone is, well, a little clunky. Still, releasing a G2 too soon could generate some bad blood. Comment!
  • 04:50 PM That online shopping this year has been uninspiring is no longer news. The final stretch, though, is showing signs of promise, comScore says, thanks in part to heavy snowstorms and increased procrastination. Comment!
  • 04:41 PM INFORMATION WEEK: The five biggest phone stories of 2008. Comment!
  • 04:33 PM Wal-Mart (WMT) to settle wage suits for as much as $640M. (PR) Comment!
  • 04:30 PM Pension funds of S&P 500 companies could be underfunded by a record amount in 2008, S&P says. Firms may be forced to slash contributions or even terminate their plans. Comment!
  • 04:21 PM American Express (AXP) gets approved for a $3.9B TARP loan, to "help bolster our capital position in an uncertain economic environment." In other words, it doesn't need the money. So why not give it to delinquent cardholders instead? 2 Comments
  • 04:13 PM U.S. auto-part suppliers (VS, AXL, TEN, LEA) will take unusual steps in the coming weeks - including cash-on-delivery, price hikes, and telling workers to telecommute on Fridays - as they look to survive a brutal Q1. Comment!
  • 04:11 PM Micron Technology (MU): FQ1 EPS of -$0.72 misses by $0.27. Revenue of $1.4B (-8.7%) vs. $1.32B. (PR) Comment!
  • 04:07 PM A retiree who says she gave accused swindler Bernard Madoff $2M to manage is suing the SEC for negligence. 1 Comment
  • 04:05 PM New rules for home appraisers. Finally. "The code would prohibit lenders and their representatives from prodding appraisers to inflate their estimates." Gosh why? 1 Comment
  • 04:03 PM Treasurys closed flat. 30-year +0.14%. 10-year +0.14%. 5-year flat. 2-year flat. Comment!
  • 04:01 PM Dow led the way up, and ends up leading markets down on a lackluster pre-holiday Tuesday, -1.16% to 8,420.53. S&P -0.96% to 863.24. Nasdaq -0.71% to 1,521.54. Feb. crude -2.23% to $39.02. Gold -0.86% to $839.90. Comment!
  • 03:55 PM Among recent IPOs - themselves a rare breed - stocks trading higher than their offer price are even rarer. Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) heads up DJ's IPO scorecard, +44%. Bioheart (BHRT), -81%, has the dubious honor of finishing last. Comment!
  • 03:48 PM Liz Claiborne (LIZ) is down 22.5% after S&P lowered its corporate-credit and unsecured-debt ratings, citing the weak retail environment. Comment!
  • 03:41 PM GM's (GM) down 14.5% as investors bet "what we asked for" is not enough. "It’s almost impossible for a management that invested in the assets, that hired the people, that put forth the strategy, to change so dramatically in such a short period of time," Edward Altman tells Bloomberg. Comment!
  • 03:30 PM Q4 will be significantly weaker, White House spokesman Tony Fratto says - commenting on today's 0.5% Q3 GDP contraction - "because of the credit crisis, the standstill in credit as markets froze up, and the financial market turmoil." Comment!
  • 03:18 PM "Right now there's a tug-of-war in the home markets," PNC's Robert Dye tells Bloomberg, commenting on today's weak new home and weaker existing home numbers. "One the one side we have falling home prices and falling mortgage rates... but on the other side we've got a rapidly deteriorating economy." Presently, the latter's winning. Comment!
  • 03:16 PM Earnings previews for companies reporting after today's close: MU Comment!
  • 03:06 PM Google (GOOG) gets cheap, and tacky, with year-end bonuses. Instead of what used to be ~$1,000 per employee, Google's handing out 20,000 G1s. 1 Comment
  • 03:05 PM Notable earnings after Tuesday's close: MU Comment!
  • 03:00 PM Rounding the bend on a sluggish pre-holiday Tuesday, major averages renounced early tepid gains, and are now firmly negative. Dow -1.3% to 8408. S&P -1.1% to 862. Nasdaq -1.1% to 1515. Crude -2.4% to $38.95. Gold -0.8% to $840.20. Comment!
  • 02:52 PM FT's The fallen giants of finance. From Cayne to Fuld to Mozillo, all these guys names are Mudd. Comment!
  • 02:42 PM "We’re getting awful close," VP-elect Biden says of talks with congressional leaders over Obama's 'substantial' stimulus package, which is rumored to be in the $800B neighborhood. Obama’s team is busily crafting a draft proposal as he vacations in Hawaii. Comment!
  • 02:28 PM POPULAR MECHANICS: 10 ways to stick your thumb in the eye of Old Man Economy with some bargain-priced automotive decadence. Comment!
  • 02:13 PM Google (GOOG) comes up with a way to access Google Docs from the desktop. "The new feature may give Google's Docs a needed popularity boost," NetworkWorld's Sharon Gaudin says. Comment!
  • 02:04 PM Madoff's first real casualty? 2 Comments
  • 01:54 PM It wasn't easy being a boat-maker these days even before one of their key commercial lenders, Textron (TXT -18.5%), said late yesterday it will exit financing operations that aren’t related to its principal manufacturing businesses. BC -9.3%. HZO -7.9%. MPX -6.1%. Comment!
  • 01:41 PM Economic stimulus in the form of tax-free holidays? 1 Comment
  • 01:31 PM A Sun (JAVA) exec provides a glimpse into the company's future plans for open sourcing JavaFX, its recently released technology for building RIAs (rich Internet applications). Comment!
  • 01:21 PM Andy Stern of Service Employees International Union and former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich blog heads: Who's to blame, the UAW or auto execs? Comment!
  • 01:16 PM Layoffs put company secrets at risk: Fifty eight percent of Wall Street office workers surveyed say they would take valuable company data with them if faced with a layoff. 3 Comments
  • 01:03 PM So Credit Suisse says GM (GM) could go to zero in its restructuring process. So there is a way to save GM without bilking taxpayers? What's that? The UAW? Comment!
  • 12:40 PM Kedrosky: The major risks for 2009. Comment!
  • 12:28 PM 10 out of 13 million tracks available for purchase online didn't sell a single copy. Just how long can that tail be? Comment!
  • 12:15 PM Bernie Madoff gives the markets $50B lesson - and they get a bargain. Comment!
  • 12:01 PM Bill Miller - the Legg Mason (LM) money manager whose two funds have each lost more than 50% this year - has been asked to help run a third fund as the firm tries to halt record outflows. WTF? 6 Comments
  • 11:50 AM In addition to more part-time workers, freezing wages is becoming a common theme. Comment!
  • 11:37 AM Last week, the auto industry finally got its bailout. But ROI's Brett Arends wonders whether it isn't time Americans rescued their own balance sheet - by bailing out of the family car. Comment!
  • 11:23 AM Under New York state law, which can be invoked for Madoff recoveries, victims of his giant Ponzi scheme may have to return up to six years of profits. Comment!
  • 11:09 AM Analysts warn corporations: Cease guidance and (the markets) will punish you. Comment!
  • 10:57 AM Cash-strapped banks will continue to offload assets in 2009, kindling an otherwise stagnant M&A market. "Banks will be keen to reduce their reliance on the government and retake control of their own destiny," KPMG's Mark Davison says. Comment!
  • 10:45 AM It might be holiday shopping season, but eBay (EBAY) isn't feeling the Christmas cheer. Visitor traffic has fallen, as have sales, and customers are switching to fixed-priced sites where eBay has less of an edge. Comment!
  • 10:32 AM For the first time ever, global notebook shipments surpass PCs. Acer's performance boomed, with its market share growing by 45% sequentially and 79% from a year earlier. Apple (AAPL) lost almost half a point of market share sequentially to 3.2%. Comment!
  • 10:27 AM Sector ETF weakness: Real Estate– IYR -3.9%. Gasoline– UGA -2.4%. Silver– SLV -1.8%. Financials– IYF -1.5%. Broker/Dealers– IAI -1.1%. Comment!
  • 10:25 AM Sector ETF strength: Gold Miners– GDX +2.6%. Agribusiness– MOO +2.4%. Insurance– KIE +2.2%. Solar– TAN +1.8%. Steel– SLX +1.7% Comment!
  • 10:19 AM Dow laggards: GM -10.8%. BAC -2.7%. C -2.4%. KFT -0.8%. Comment!
  • 10:13 AM Dow leaders: AA +4.1%. MRK +1.6%. XOM +1.6%. DIS +1.4%. MSFT +1.4%. Comment!
  • 10:13 AM The State Street Investor Confidence Index fell 6.5 points to 48.0 in December after a sharp fall in confidence among North American investors. "We witnessed some of the largest reallocations away from risky assets that we have recorded over the last decade." Comment!
  • 10:11 AM Stocks are trading in a tight range amid almost no volume. Dow +0.3%. S&P +0.3%. Nasdaq +0.5%. Crude is down 1.3% to $39.40. Gold -0.4% to $844. Comment!
  • 10:10 AM New Home Sales (.pdf) fell 2.9% in November from October to 407K, short of the 415K consensus. Inventory climbs to 11.5 months from 11.1 months. Median price rises to $220,400 from $218.000. Comment!
  • 10:06 AM Consumer confidence rises slightly in December as lower prices provide investor relief, the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers finds. The index's reading of 60.1 (vs. 55.3 in November) beat consensus of 58.6. Comment!
  • 10:05 AM Existing Home Sales fell 8.6% in November from October to 4.49M/year - far lower than the 4.93M consensus. "The quickly deteriorating conditions in the job market, stock market, and consumer confidence in October and November have knocked down home sales to another level," NAR's Lawrence Yun says. Comment!
  • 09:45 AM Las Vegas Sands (LVS) lays off 500 in Macau. Hard times for the Chinese gambling enclave. 1 Comment
  • 09:34 AM Freddie Mac's (FRE) mortgage portfolio surged by an astonishing 65.6% annually in November - its second month under government control - to $805B. Under the terms of their conservatorship, FRE and FNM can increase their portfolios to $850B by the end of 2009. 1 Comment
  • 09:31 AM Futures end the overnight session essentially flat, but major indexes are moderately higher at the open. Dow +0.5% to 8565. S&P +0.7% to 878. Nasdaq +0.5% to 1540. Crude +0.55% to $40.13. Gold -0.4% to $843.70. Comment!
  • 09:26 AM Avis Budget Group (CAR) is up 34% premarket after lenders agreed to extend $2.45B in credit lines until late 2009, erasing fears a deal might not be reached. Avis also said it is close to a second deal to ease committments on a $1.5B credit line. (PR) Comment!
  • 09:16 AM U.S. stock futures are little changed after in-line GDP and corporate profits data. With low pre-holiday volume, markets could easily swing wildly, or not do much at all. Dow futures +0.2% to 8559. S&P +0.5%. Nasdaq -0.04%. Comment!
  • 09:12 AM Unisys (UIS) will cut 1,300 jobs as part of its plans to save over $225M annually. The struggling firm will also consolidate plants, freeze 2009 pay raises and suspend 401(k) matches. Shares +15.1% premarket. Comment!
  • 09:11 AM "Very boring since they didn't change anything and that was pretty much expected," S&P's David Wyss says of today's 0.5% drop in Q3 GDP. "It continues to show basically the same story, which is people stopped spending. A 3.8% decline in consumer spending was most of the story." Comment!
  • 09:09 AM Hours after being approved for bank-holding status, CIT Group (CIT) says it has preliminary approval to tap $2.33B of government funds. Shares +10% premarket. Comment!
  • 09:07 AM Total U.S. private debt fell by an annual rate of 11.9% in October, steeper than September's 9.7% decline. Consumer credit contracted the fastest, down 15.4%, followed by real estate (-13.8%) and business (-5.7%). Comment!
  • 09:04 AM National chain store sales fell 0.7% in the first three weeks of December vs. the previous month, Redbook says, and fell 1.1% vs. a year ago. (See also: ICSC sales) Comment!
  • 09:03 AM JPMorgan raises its 2009 EPS outlook for Morgan Stanley (MS) to $2.35 from $2.15, and lowers its outlook for Goldman (GS) to $6.25 from $7. Both banks are likely to be opportunistic in growing their deposit base, JPMorgan says.
    1 Comment
  • 09:01 AM Premarket losers: SAY -14%. AMAG -12%. EWT -9%. GM -7%. DRYS -6%. DHI -6%. GW -5%. F -5%. Comment!
  • 09:01 AM Premarket gainers: RHT +13%. PLD +12%. CX +9%. CIT +9%. UBS +8%. FMCN +6%. GFI +5%. XL +4%. HUN +4%. ASML +4%. Comment!
  • 08:54 AM American Greetings (AM): FQ3 EPS of $0.20 misses by $0.32. Revenue of $454M (-6.5%) vs. $474M. "The rapidly deteriorating economy has significantly impacted our business," CEO Zev Weiss says. Shares -11%. (PR) Comment!
  • 08:53 AM There are media reports that Toyota (TM) will replace president Katsuaki Watanabe after it forecast its first-ever operating loss yesterday. Toyota denies the reports. Comment!
  • 08:51 AM BoA (BAC) denies it canceled the sale of a $3B stake in China Construction Bank due to objections from Beijing. "We suspended the sale of the shares for our own internal reasons," says a spokesman, though a sale is still possible in the future. Comment!
  • 08:49 AM Concerns about the deteriorating global economy drove euro zone government bond yields to record lows Tuesday. Comment!
  • 08:47 AM News Corp.'s (NWS) stake in German TV station Premiere could 'theoretically' exceed 50%, says Premiere CEO Mark Williams. News Corp., with a 25.01% stake, plans to backstop a new rights issue aimed at raising €450M for the German firm. Comment!
  • 08:37 AM Revised corporate profits fell by $18.5B in Q3, down from a preliminary estimate of -$14.6B, vs. a $60.2B decrease in Q2. Domestic profits were down $75.5B, worse than a preliminary estimate of $61.6B, vs. -$31B in Q2. Comment!
  • 08:34 AM Q3 GDP decreased by 0.5%, in line with consensus and with the government's preliminary figure. Main factor: a 3.8% drop in personal consumption (vs. -3.7% consensus). Comment!
  • 08:30 AM General Dynamics (GD) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) win a $14B contract from the U.S. Navy to build eight Virginia-class submarines, after succeeding in the 'nearly impossible' task of cutting each sub's price tag by $400M. Comment!
  • 08:25 AM New-car dealer floorplan loans will be included in the Fed's Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), providing dealers as much as $200B to keep their showrooms well stocked. Comment!
  • 08:09 AM Two U.K. banking giants - HBOS and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) - were on the verge of collapse in October, forcing them to take goverment funding at any cost, BBC's Panorama reveals. "It's more a drive-by shooting than a negotiation," RBS chief Sir Fred Goodwin said. Comment!
  • 08:00 AM Retail Chain Store Sales increased 2.6% from a week ago, ICSC says, but declined 0.6% from the same week last year. The 2.6% rise is the biggest weekly gain in at least half a year. 1 Comment
  • 07:53 AM U.K. mortgage approvals sunk to an all-time low, and are now barely 1/3 of their average at the peak of the housing market in 2007. Comment!
  • 07:49 AM Not much action in overnight lending markets, with three-month Libor unchanged at 1.46625%. The Libor-OIS spread - a measure of banks’ reluctance to lend - dropped two basis points to 124. The TED spread narrowed three BPs to 145. Comment!
  • 07:35 AM U.K. GDP contracted 0.6% in Q3 from Q2, the biggest drop since 1990, and slightly worse than the -0.5% consensus. Manufacturing led the way down, falling 1.4%. Economists say broad-based weakness will likely prompt the BoE to steer interest rates toward zero. Comment!
  • 07:29 AM Thailand may boost its stimulus spending by as much as 80%, raising total costs to 180B baht ($5.2B) from 100B baht. Thailand's economy has been hurt by the global recession and domestic political strife. (ETF: THD) Comment!
  • 07:20 AM The Madoff litigation mess begins. Investors are suing hedge funds for failing to protect their assets, and the SEC for failing to uncover the fraud. Madoff's liquidator may sue former investors to recoup their profits and spread out losses more evenly. 1 Comment
  • 07:18 AM Shares of Sina (SINA) fell 17% Monday after it gave away nearly half the company to buy Focus Media's (FMCN) network of advertising assets. While it's hard to blame them for being skeptical, the deal may well be a resounding bargain. Comment!
  • 07:14 AM S&P lowers Chrysler's corporate credit rating to CC, a junk status just two notches above default. Comment!
  • 07:09 AM GM (GM) gets hit with an S&P downgrade on its senior unsecured debt, which is now rated as C, or 11 grades below investment quality. There is a 'high' likelihood of a GM bankruptcy, says S&P, and creditors can expect 'negligible recovery.' Comment!
  • 07:01 AM U.S. futures are flat. Dow +0.1% to 8550. S&P +0.2%. Nasdaq -0.1%. Crude +0.03% to $39.90. Gold -0.3% to $844.90. A slew of economic data due today, including the final Q3 GDP tally and NRA's existing home sales. Comment!
  • 07:01 AM Europe is marginally higher at midday in low-volume pre-holiday trade. London +0.3%. Paris +0.1%. Frankfurt +0.3%. Comment!
  • 07:01 AM Asia markets opened lower after yesterday's rough day in the U.S., and never recovered. Hang Seng -2.75% to 14,221. Shanghai -4.55% to 1,897. BSE -2.43% to 9,687. Tokyo closed. Comment!
  • 06:38 AM The U.K. economy contracted 0.6% in Q3 from Q2, the most since 1990, vs. 0.5% consensus, while mortgage lending dropped to the lowest in 14 years. "It’s going to get worse before it gets better," warns economist Ross Walker. (ETF: EWU) Comment!
  • 03:05 AM Recession fears pull Asian stocks down: Hang Seng -3.0%. Shanghai -4.5%. BSE -2.0%. Kospi -3.0%. Nikkei closed. Comment!
  • 12:05 AM Notable earnings after Tuesday's close: MU Comment!
  • 12:00 AM Tuesday's economic calendar:
    7:45 ICSC Retail Store Sales
    8:30 Corporate Profits
    8:30 GDP (final)
    8:55 Redbook
    10:00 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
    10:00 Existing Home Sales
    10:00 New Home Sales
    10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
    5:00 PM ABC Consumer Confidence Index Comment!
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