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Sunday, November 30, 2008 11:25 AM TweetThis
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This news story has 8 comments:

  •  
    Predition: overall retail sales for the Christmas season will be down significantly. The 3% black friday surge is front-loading, people shopping now to spend the least.

    I can't wait for retailer stocks to rally on this news so that I can buy SCC at an even lower price and gain that much more when retailers go bankrupt in Jan, Feb, Mar due to overall dismal Christmas sales.
    2008 Nov 30 12:51 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The "3%", brought to you by Moody's whom as we've learned can't count.
    2008 Nov 30 03:54 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    If you read the ShopperTrak estimate methodology on their website, they emphasize counting retail foot traffic. Obviously in this retail environment, old estimates based on how many people went out for Black Friday and correlation to actual total spending dollars is tenuous at best.

    I mean ShopperTrak said retail sales were UP y/y September and October, and down tiny in November, give me a break.

    Meanwhile, Mastercard Spendingpulse which is based on actual spending data from their credit card users, NOT estimates counting foot traffic, shows deep double digit y/y declines in sales dollars.
    2008 Nov 30 05:30 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    If you read the ShopperTrak estimate methodology on their website, they emphasize counting retail foot traffic. Obviously in this retail environment, old estimates based on how many people went out for Black Friday and correlation to actual total spending dollars is tenuous at best.

    I mean ShopperTrak said retail sales were UP y/y September and October, and down tiny in November, give me a break.

    Meanwhile, Mastercard Spendingpulse which is based on actual spending data from their credit card users, NOT estimates counting foot traffic, shows deep double digit y/y declines in sales dollars.
    2008 Nov 30 05:30 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    With gas prices down people might be out and around, but I bet the cash is staying in the pocket unless there is a special deal.

    Not sure about spendingpulse. People could be keeping the plastic in their pockets and paying cash.
    2008 Nov 30 09:57 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Why SCC? That's the double short consumer services ETF. Spending on consumer services is more resiliant than spending on discretionary consumer products, so you'd probably be better off going for SZK.

    Here's a list I found of short sector ETFs that may be helpful:
    seekingalpha.com/artic...


    On Nov 30 12:51 PM D. McHattie wrote:

    > Predition: overall retail sales for the Christmas season will be
    > down significantly. The 3% black friday surge is front-loading,
    > people shopping now to spend the least.
    >
    > I can't wait for retailer stocks to rally on this news so that I
    > can buy SCC at an even lower price and gain that much more when retailers
    > go bankrupt in Jan, Feb, Mar due to overall dismal Christmas sales.
    2008 Dec 01 01:55 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Even if that's true, sentiment is so bad that any positive headlines will fuel a rally today. Traders won't delve into the details -- they'll just buy.


    On Nov 30 05:30 PM Mr. EB wrote:

    > If you read the ShopperTrak estimate methodology on their website,
    > they emphasize counting retail foot traffic. Obviously in this retail
    > environment, old estimates based on how many people went out for
    > Black Friday and correlation to actual total spending dollars is
    > tenuous at best.
    >
    > I mean ShopperTrak said retail sales were UP y/y September and October,
    > and down tiny in November, give me a break.
    >
    > Meanwhile, Mastercard Spendingpulse which is based on actual spending
    > data from their credit card users, NOT estimates counting foot traffic,
    > shows deep double digit y/y declines in sales dollars.
    2008 Dec 01 02:47 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Two important quotes from the article:

    1. "But the sales boost during the post-Thanksgiving shopathon came at the expense of profits as the nation's retailers had to slash prices to attract the crowds in a season that is expected to be the weakest in decades."

    2. "Also complicating matters is a shorter buying season — 27 days between Black Friday and Christmas — instead of 32 last year."
    2008 Dec 01 06:14 AM | Link | Reply