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  • j_remington: 
  • Comments (942)
  •  • StockTalk (35)
  Comments from someone that bought and held from the 2008 October lows cannot be trusted.

  Mar 10 07:07 PM | Link | Reply
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  • AssetReset: 
  • Comments (55)
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  While I agree that the market turns around when the path is the darkest, I have trouble accepting we are there.
  

  Mar 10 07:16 PM | Link | Reply
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  • User 371158: 
  • Comments (23)
  He bought at good value in October and watched others sell out to prices even further in to good value.
  I see nothing wrong with him doing what he believed to be right just because so many continued to sell out in panic without regard to the value of the underlying holdings in indices like the S&P 500, for one example.

  Mar 10 07:35 PM | Link | Reply
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  • cash: 
  • Comments (123)
  Yes, unless you think that we are going to the oblivion never to return, it would be a mistake to not to pick up some equities here. At least for a short term rally if you are nervous

  Mar 10 07:57 PM | Link | Reply
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  • Cerberus: 
  • Comments (115)
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  when everyone is most pessimistic, i'm buying. I love all your pessimism. keeps things cheap.

  Mar 10 08:02 PM | Link | Reply
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  • User 371158: 
  • Comments (23)
  I am buying a mix of quality indices in my 401(k) at a rate that is about 37% higher than the volume I was getting each pay period just a few months ago- my 15% contribution is buying 20 to 22% "worth of" stuff, and that is simply remarkable.
  I understand that there is fear and pessimism out there, much of with good reason, but getting even a simple S&P 500 Index at the values they are going for now isn't just shooting fish in a barrel, it's like shooting them with a bazooka.
  
  This is the buying opportunity of a lifetime, and I am taking full advantage.
  In 30 years it won't matter if I got the S&P 500 at a value of 650 or 680 or 720, it will just matter that I got a load of it at well under 900...and I thank those who made it possible.

  Mar 10 08:11 PM | Link | Reply
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  • bricki: 
  • Comments (659)
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  Dollar cost averaging is the way to go - bottom picking is a crap shoot.
  
  A risk adjusted allocation system is a wonderful thing. Buy low sell high.
  
  
  
  

  Mar 10 08:25 PM | Link | Reply
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  • User 371158: 
  • Comments (23)
  Absolutely right. It is environments like this when DCA shows how powerful of a tool it can be.
  
  No one in this lifetime will ever make the perfect bet on finding the absolute bottom on every buy, and why waste the time and energy to try?
  I am acquiring quality diversified holdings at incredible discounts to even low-end fair value and I will be very thankful for that down the line when it's time to start making withdrawals.
  
  Prices are cheap relative to just about any metric I can find short of "absolute Armageddon". I could obviously be wrong, but when the sustained rally comes those on the sidelines will be very sorry to have missed the train finally leaving the station.

  Mar 10 08:31 PM | Link | Reply
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  • Child Psych...: 
  • Comments (46)
  Make fun of Grantham at your peril. He may be wrong, but he is no fool. He called the top, and admitting that he may be early, he has earned the right to be listened to....

  Mar 10 09:43 PM | Link | Reply
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  • 2houndz: 
  • Comments (292)
  I went 100% cash in November 2007 and tried to catch the obvious moves long or short since then. If I miss 15% of this move while waiting to see if it is the real thing, then so be it. I can count on my fingers the number of days since last February that no one called a bottom on CNBC.

  Mar 10 10:02 PM | Link | Reply
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  • User 371158: 
  • Comments (23)
  I never try to call a bottom, I just try to call "this is good value", nothing more and nothing less.
  
  Right now I see very few indices out there that are not stuffed to the gills with strong value holdings.
  For that reason, I will continue to invest my 15% per paycheck gladly, and not fret about whether I lose a per cent here or gain 2 per cent there.
  
  Fair value, IMO, is about 850 to 900 for the S&P right now even factoring in some of the rotten apples that still exist. If I am even close to right, I will gladly take the 20% to 25% pickup to reach that fair value and then see what happens after that.
  
  Fear is real, but so is opportunity. I find myself focusing on the latter and I have no qualms about that.

  Mar 10 11:00 PM | Link | Reply
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  • RobH: 
  • Comments (6)
  Based on the number of people on the Internet claiming to have sold in the fall of 2007, it's amazing that the market didn't crash back then.
  

  Mar 10 11:11 PM | Link | Reply
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  • j_remington: 
  • Comments (942)
  •  • StockTalk (35)
  Every day there's a money mgr who makes a statement about recovery. Grantham simply wants to be on record to say so. In a year or two or three, these predictors will go back and say they made the call, etc. Nobody knows if this is a rally. However, Monday nor Tuesday represented heightened capitulation.
  
  

  Mar 10 11:25 PM | Link | Reply
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  • Nick Waddell: 
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  • Dollarton Venture Capital
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  • DVC Smalltech Letter
  The financial network in Canada is BNN. In an ad for one of their own shows host Amanda Lang asks Kevin O'Leary "Kevin what do you do in these crazy markets?" Kevin replies "You stay in. Most of the gains after the market falls come in the first few days after."
  
  This commercial has been running since last September....

  Mar 11 12:20 AM | Link | Reply
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  • User 371158: 
  • Comments (23)
  Over $4 trillion in money market funds sure seems like a sign of capitulation to me...
  
  7.29 billion shares traded on the S&P 500 today also seems like more than a few buyers dipping their toes back in to the market. That is a huge inflow of trading on a day that has been long overdue to arrive.
  
  I would never call a "bottom" and I don't see much point in anyone trying, but there certainly seems to be a thirst out there for people to buy back in at great prices and stop sitting in cash at 0.25% yields wondering when the press will finally start talking about positives like improving indicators, more available credit, great stocks at multiples of 10 or under, and so on.
  
  Call me a Pollyanna, but this looks like a buying opportunity that we will remember for years and years to come.
  The market could drop 600 points next week, but that still puts it at least 20% below true value IMO, and I will take advantage as long as possible.

  Mar 11 01:05 AM | Link | Reply
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  • 2houndz: 
  • Comments (292)
  RobH - I sold my house in Nov 07 as well. Is it really so hard to believe that some people saw this coming??

  Mar 11 12:33 PM | Link | Reply