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  • Tony Petroski 
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  Tony Petroski 

  

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  Tony Petroski is a pseudonym for his real name, Mark Twain. Mr. Twain is a Minneapolis businessman and that's significant, because in that place, located on the Mississippi, all the businessmen are forced to swim upstream. Among his many awards is the fabled "Twin Cities Worst... More

  
  The journey of 1000 miles begins with the first step. It ends with a 990-mile plane ride.

  2009 Mar 23 04:34 PM Reply
 
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  • Armin Stuk 
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  Armin Stuk 

  

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  • Blog: marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Port...

  
  The X factor, as it always is with housing, is jobs. People without jobs have a tough time buying homes. People afraid of losing their jobs don’t want to make major purchases. Given the still vicious news in the jobs arena, a meaningful recovery in housing just isn’t in the cards anytime soon.
  source:Rising Home Sales? Really?
  blogs.wsj.com/marketbe.../
  

  2009 Mar 23 04:37 PM Reply
 
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  • bricki 
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  bricki 

  

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  Not a particularly inspiring increase, but an increase nonetheless. I don't think it is a turnaround yet; more like some bottom fishers getting antsy and buying a little bit early.
  
  In many recessions housing leads the recovery because low interest rates improve affordability a lot. This despite the fact that job recovery typically trails the recession. Here we have a big decline in housing values plus ZIRP plus a lot of unemployment.
  
  So I'm not hugely worried about unemployment factoring in on the buy side. What I'm more worried about is unemployment juicing the supply side through defaults. People extended a lot to buy during the bubble, leaving themselves vulnerable to even a small drop in income.
  
  So I think while there may be increasing sales as this recession goes on, it won't necessarily make a big dent in inventory for a while. So prices aren't going to start appreciating off the bottom when it comes for a considerable period of time.
  
  So don't speculate on housing anytime soon.
  
  

  2009 Mar 23 05:18 PM Reply
 
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  • j_remington 
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  j_remington 

  

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  there will be another panic sell leg later this year when more ARMs reset

  2009 Mar 25 06:10 PM Reply