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Market Currents

Sunday, April 26, 2009
10:49 AM TweetThis
  • Warren Buffett gets many things right, but Andy Kern of Berkshire Ruminations says his stance on the U.S. debt bubble - that "we'll be fine in the long run" - is wrong. "How will we be living when 75% of our GDP is committed to simply servicing our national debt?"

This news story has 17 comments:

  •  
    No kidding! Is it not "debt" that has gotten us in this mess? How can "more debt", and a significant amount of it at that, help us to get out of it? I am an optomistic type, but do not have a good feeling about the near future and all the so called "cures" to what ail us.
    2009 Apr 26 11:29 AM Reply
  •  
    THEY ARE CLOSING MANY BANKS ON THE WEEKENDS: EVERY WEEKEND THERE HAS BEEN BANKS TAKEN OVER BY THE FDIC. BANKS WERE "FAIRLY PRICED" AT MARCH LOWS.

    Idaho bank is fourth closed in a single day

    By John Letzing
    Last update: 8:16 p.m. EDT April 24, 2009

    SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Ketchum, Idaho-based First Bank of Idaho became the fourth bank closed by regulators Friday, as the credit crisis continued claiming victims. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said Minneapolis-based U.S. Bank (USB:US Bancorp
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    USB 18.97, +0.60, +3.3%) has assumed the failed bank's deposits. First Bank of Idaho had $374 million in deposits as of Dec. 31, the FDIC said. The bank's closure follows that of other banks in Georgia, Michigan and California on Friday.
    2009 Apr 26 11:34 AM Reply
  •  
    Andy,

    That was his opinion this is yours. The truth probably lies somewhere in between.

    2009 Apr 26 12:21 PM Reply
  •  
    For those not living on another plant:
    Spend some time on the internet and google the MTA (of new york)

    The MTA of NY is a perfect example of a mini- country.

    Though they take in hundreds of billions of dollars every single year, and raise fares, cut service, multiple times a year, they are unable to meet today's or future budgetary goals. WHY?

    Debt of all kinds. The upkeep for a major city transportation system is huge but that is not even the biggest problem.

    Their real "debt" (if you will) are the absurd obligations they have promised all their GED equivalency diploma employees, for their health, guaranteed pensions, grossly overpaid salaries, etc.

    For those non New Yorker, college graduate employees how does this make you feel to know:

    If you have a high school diploma, you can work for the MTA in NY, earn $70K being a toll collector, get full 100% health benefits, huge amounts of sick leave, overtime, retire w/ almost half (non-taxable) pay AND know that your pension can go to zero if the market goes to zero because the tax payer will be held at gun point to make up the difference so you can still live a happy retirement. In other words the taxpayer pays for everything and you have not a care in the world.

    Want to see what the USA will look like if drastic action is not taken?

    Watch the never ending, slow motion collapse of the MTA of New York City.
    2009 Apr 26 12:23 PM Reply
  •  
    Archman,

    It's been 20 years since I lived on the "plant" you may be thinking of...(actually barley and hops, LOL!)

    The biggest public employee scam, however, is the way many pension payouts are established - based on take-home pay in the employee's final year of service. Our "heroic" police and firefighters here in CA have been taking huge amounts of overtime in their final year to establish pension payouts exceeding their annual salary levels.

    This scam against the taxpayer is systemic in many municipalities and considered part of the job to the point where, when the city of San Bernardino, CA cut out police overtime from the city budget, a significant percentage of the police force quit. I guess that royalies from shaking down gangs and freebies from working girls do not constitute sufficient benefits for our "heros". These guys have the sense of entitlement to triple dip the taxpayers (salary, pension and overtime scam income), as well.

    It is safe to assume that our equally heroic NY MTA and other members of the entitled bureaucrat class are scamming the system the same way.

    I feel for the private citizen taxpayer in NY and elsewhere, who is on the hook for this pension scam in addition for being on his or her own when Social Security runs out.
    2009 Apr 26 01:47 PM Reply
  •  
    While I know nothing of the specifics of the MTAs finances, I can guess that you have missed the forest for the trees:

    The MTA doesn't have a debt problem; it has a CAPITAL problem and a funding problem because it cannot collect enough directly.

    AND since the capital costs FAR outweigh the labor costs, I am willing to bet that you could make ALL the changes to the labor costs you wish, and you won't come close to solving the MTA finances.

    Finally, from what I know of the cities I've been involved with, I would also be willing to bet that the ONLY way the MTA could be financially sound is if it cut back the scope of its services dramatically, especially service to suburbs and the ex-burbs, and service at off hours.

    The reason that the MTA is allowed to continue is that the massive outlays required to roads and infrastructure, let alone the nightmare traffic jams and delays that would follow an MTA liquidation, MORE than justifies keeping it afloat.


    On Apr 26 12:23 PM archman82011 wrote:

    > For those not living on another plant:
    > Spend some time on the internet and google the MTA (of new york)
    >
    >
    > The MTA of NY is a perfect example of a mini- country.
    >
    > Though they take in hundreds of billions of dollars every single
    > year, and raise fares, cut service, multiple times a year, they are
    > unable to meet today's or future budgetary goals. WHY?
    >
    > Debt of all kinds. The upkeep for a major city transportation system
    > is huge but that is not even the biggest problem.
    >
    > Their real "debt" (if you will) are the absurd obligations they have
    > promised all their GED equivalency diploma employees, for their health,
    > guaranteed pensions, grossly overpaid salaries, etc.
    >
    > For those non New Yorker, college graduate employees how does this
    > make you feel to know:
    >
    > If you have a high school diploma, you can work for the MTA in NY,
    > earn $70K being a toll collector, get full 100% health benefits,
    > huge amounts of sick leave, overtime, retire w/ almost half (non-taxable)
    > pay AND know that your pension can go to zero if the market goes
    > to zero because the tax payer will be held at gun point to make up
    > the difference so you can still live a happy retirement. In other
    > words the taxpayer pays for everything and you have not a care in
    > the world.
    >
    > Want to see what the USA will look like if drastic action is not
    > taken?
    >
    > Watch the never ending, slow motion collapse of the MTA of New York
    > City.
    2009 Apr 26 02:04 PM Reply
  •  
    P.S. Your comment about the long term health cost funding and the underfunding of the pension plan IS valid.

    NOBODY can fund health benefits at 100%, and if we do not figure out a way to reduce our percentage of GDP going to health care, we are truly going to be bankrupt.

    The US spend more, in total dollars, on health care consumption than the Chinese spend on ALL consumption --EVERYTHING they buy.

    On Apr 26 02:04 PM CaptainJJack wrote:

    > While I know nothing of the specifics of the MTAs finances, I can
    > guess that you have missed the forest for the trees:
    >
    > The MTA doesn't have a debt problem; it has a CAPITAL problem and
    > a funding problem because it cannot collect enough directly.
    >
    > AND since the capital costs FAR outweigh the labor costs, I am willing
    > to bet that you could make ALL the changes to the labor costs you
    > wish, and you won't come close to solving the MTA finances.
    >
    > Finally, from what I know of the cities I've been involved with,
    > I would also be willing to bet that the ONLY way the MTA could be
    > financially sound is if it cut back the scope of its services dramatically,
    > especially service to suburbs and the ex-burbs, and service at off
    > hours.
    >
    > The reason that the MTA is allowed to continue is that the massive
    > outlays required to roads and infrastructure, let alone the nightmare
    > traffic jams and delays that would follow an MTA liquidation, MORE
    > than justifies keeping it afloat.
    2009 Apr 26 02:12 PM Reply
  •  
    Warren Buffet needs to be stripped of his sainthood. There was a time he really was the plain-spoken value investor he pretends to be today, but that is now just a carrefully polished public image maintained by his PR flacks. His public statements, like those in I.O.U.S.A. are crafted to boost his current labarynthine investments which includes many of the financial WMD instruments he publicly criticizes.
    2009 Apr 26 03:41 PM Reply
  •  
    The public pension - medicare/social security issues are the things that will bring down America.

    Government workers of all types- teachers, cops , firefighters, military and especially civil servants are almost the on ly people earning full lifetime pensions and benefits these days.

    They are the most OVERPAID segment of society and feed at the taxpayer trough.


    2009 Apr 26 04:45 PM Reply
  •  
    CaptainJJack:

    Thanks for the comment reply.

    Trust me, the MTA of NY does not have a capital problem nor a funding problem. The amounts of money they collect from all their various sources far outweighs the capital needs to maintain the current transportation system.

    Their problem is similar to many problems that face most municipalities throughout the country:

    A grossly overpaid, entitlement, civil servant type workforce, where the majority of workers have nothing more than a high school education, get paid more than many professions, with outrageous completely paid for benefits (health, dental, eyes, no co-pays, etc) coupled with HUGE taxpayer guaranteed pensions. The stock market may be down 50%, but hell it does not matter. Good old taxpayers foot the difference that these pensions have lost in value.

    The problem with all these civil servant type, coddling, babying, jobs: The entire system only functions when things are good, when there is ample money to be thrown around from one entity to another. When times are bad, the entire Ponzi scheme (yes in the end that's all it really is) comes crashing down.

    It now costs $2.50 to take a subway ride in NYC. I can still remember the days of less than 50 cents.

    The governor of NY refuses to address the real problems facing NY state and NYC. Until we as taxpayers destroy these unions and make these civil servant types get paid what they are truly worth, kick in 35% for their health benefits, and not use taxpayer money to guarantee their pensions, New York State will change its name to Welfare State.
    2009 Apr 26 05:07 PM Reply
  •  
    The Bible says,
    "The rich rule over the poor,
    and the borrower is servant to the lender." Proverbs 22:7
    We should let the banks pay back the TARP money and we should stop borrowing individually and as a country and live within our means even if it means sacrifice at this time.
    2009 Apr 26 05:14 PM Reply
  •  
    Joseph Wagda:

    I gave you a big thumbs up for your first sentence to the comment for my post.
    Sometimes life can be funny even by the smallest of spelling errors.

    The ways things are going, we should all be on the "plant" to enjoy life a bit more.

    All the best.
    2009 Apr 26 05:50 PM Reply
  •  
    I'll go out on a limb here and make a not so bold prediction:

    You'll never, ever see Warren Buffet go on CNBC and tell the masses to sell their US stocks, short the dollar, and buy gold. Not in a trillion years!

    Think about it.
    2009 Apr 26 07:15 PM Reply
  •  
    "You'll never, ever see Warren Buffet go on CNBC and tell the masses to sell their US stocks, short the dollar, and buy gold. Not in a trillion years!"

    None of those moves has EVER been a successful medium or long term strategy.

    Short term? Yes.

    But Buffett admits he cannot time the market.

    Maybe you can.

    My money is on the champ going forward from here,

    2009 Apr 26 08:59 PM Reply
  •  
    LOL Archman... I can remember the days when the NY subway cost 15 cents... In those days we purchased tokens.

    You are so right about the cost structure problems and of course the strike threats timed for New Years Eve...

    2009 Apr 26 09:17 PM Reply
  •  
    Archman - wonderful comparison. It illustrates the way government functions.
    A. Screw things up (see every Federal bureaucracy for examples)
    B. Ask for more money
    2009 Apr 26 11:49 PM Reply
  •  
    The easiest way would be to move to Zimbabwe and you could become an instant trillionaire - imagine that?


    On Apr 26 09:21 PM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:

    > To those who who doubt you can inflate your way to prosperity- watch
    > it happen.
    2009 Apr 27 08:17 AM Reply
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