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Wednesday, May 6, 2009
11:14 AM TweetThis
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This news story has 20 comments:

  •  
    Another sign of the end of the rally. This is akin to the $200 per bbl predictions last year.
    May 06 11:17 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Seriously? He's predicting the market will go up if the economy turns positive. It apparently doesn't take much to be the Head of Research at Barclays.
    May 06 11:19 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I guess that's not why I'm one of his clients. I'm in the process of exiting- bearish divergences in all of the major indexes. The fewer and fewer Greater Fools each day couldn't be more obvious.
    May 06 11:21 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Don't assume that everyone got in this time around. A LOT of people stayed on the sidelines, nervous that stocks would plunge (which, notably, they still haven't). The fact that we are seeing selling resistance, as opposed to continued window-shopping, is a convincing argument for this market holding up, too.
    May 06 11:22 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I talked to Larry personally in November 2007. He was very bullish on stocks, citing that in market history when the Fed started cutting, stocks delivered good returns. Oh well.

    It's also a pretty sad statement when you say that most of your clients missed the rally. I guess you either didn't tell them that this was about to happen, or they just didn't believe you anymore.
    May 06 11:23 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Another sign of a bear market rally?????? I think not. I don't give a flip about sentiment numbers. They are meaningless because they attempt to measure what people think rather than what they actually do. The fact is that most investors missed this rally, exactly like Larry Kantor's clients. That doesn't mean they aren't "bullish" though. My brother bought near the bottom then sold all a few days later out of knee-jerk fear. Now he's out - ofr a while because he got jerked around. That is how it happens. People are bullish; they buy; they sell; they hedge with puts. I see the put-call ratio surge every time a rally fizzles, then goes back down. Investors are quick to pull the trigger, then wait and see.
    May 06 11:24 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Well said, klarsolo.


    On May 06 11:23 AM klarsolo wrote:

    > I talked to Larry personally in November 2007. He was very bullish
    > on stocks, citing that in market history when the Fed started cutting,
    > stocks delivered good returns. Oh well.
    >
    > It's also a pretty sad statement when you say that most of your clients
    > missed the rally. I guess you either didn't tell them that this was
    > about to happen, or they just didn't believe you anymore.
    May 06 11:25 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    This guy larry is pathetic. It is going to get surprisingly better?
    How can anyone think with the govt printing dollars to monetize debt, without any growing mfg base , a consumer in retrenchment and an economy built on over consumption, over lending and over risk taking that we have any type of normal demand going for the foreseeable future?
    The economy is totally being manipulated by phoney money. The politicians will not allow the economy to restructure like is needed now.
    May 06 11:33 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    As others have commented, the statement that "the market will go up if there is an economic recovery" falls well short of a gutsy call. More troubling to me is that Seeking Alpha would post such an inane observation as news. If you're short of content, I'd be happy to contribute:
    Market-Blog poster TomOfTheNorth reported today that massive hiring would solve the unemployment decline. He went on to state that the Federal debt will decline when the Government reigns-in spending and increases revenue.
    May 06 11:34 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    It astounds me that people can extrapolate growth out of these horrific numbers. Nobody, NOBODY has talked about where America's growth is coming from - What areas are going to grow? who is growing revenue this fall? Who is hiring? Oh right, we're just going to lever up and spend again.
    May 06 11:34 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    “If the economy gets better, these banks are going to be ok. If the economy is not getting better, they’re in trouble,” he said.

    How much does he get paid for this wonderful insight?
    May 06 11:39 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I think the new baseline P/E (next 5 years) will be 12, not 17 on the S&P
    May 06 11:42 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I will confirm that a few at this firm were sH^tting their pants in early March. Funny how the markets up 30-35% make them more brave.
    Do not know how far this rally is going to go but in the 1930's 25-50% rallies were common. One thing I will assure is that the market will fool the majority at major turning points so would imagine some more rallying to suck in more funds.
    May 06 11:44 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    What is H2?
    May 06 11:44 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    (sarcasm) Shit, it's on CNBC ... So it must be a fantastic revelation. I wonder what Cramer will have to say about this. (/sarcasm)
    May 06 11:45 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Beating anemically lowered analyst expectations in earnings and economic reports seem to be driving the markets over the last seven weeks. Without real growth and problematic employment figures when expectations are somewhat raised watch out and be ready to sell as we fall back at 750 S&P soon.
    May 06 12:10 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I haven't missed this Bear Mkt Rally. My account and my son's IRA that I manage for him have both doubled plus since it began. I've had some good plays on GE, CNH, MTW, BAC, FITB, AGM, FAS, DE, ADM. I am ready to sell at a moments notice or buy.

    I sold almost everything financial in the last couple of days. I've got the feeling the market is going to get drop kicked tomorrow. You saw Flutie do it (the first time in 30 to 40 yrs), you drop the ball and at the moment it hits the ground you kick it through the uprights. That's tomorrow at the release, a drop then a rebound.

    If the DOW breaks 8500 there isn't much in its way to 9000 then 9500 and then proverbial 10000.

    Oh by the way, that is one of the markers of a bottom. When the market continues to rise in the face of crappy data and news. But, don't bet the farm. I'm not.

    These opinions provided by Niner...........my qualifications; I have a dregree in Forestry options B Parks and Wildlands Management.
    May 06 12:53 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    It ain't got a thing to do with reality. If the investing public perceives things are getting better, that is all that matters. As long as they perceive the recovery is just around the corner, the market will go up. The converse is also true! The minute the perception changes, and it does not have to founded in truth, the lemmings will follow the leader over the cliff and you will see a leg down that approaches the depths of Hell itself. That's exactly what happened this downturn. All you naysayers convinced the investing and working public that the end of the economic world as we know near. And they all followed you right over the cliff into the abyss!

    Of course this my opinion, and I am entitled to it just as you ar yours.
    May 06 01:04 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Niner, sentiment is usually a lagging indicator. As for your nice gains, congrats, but do not let your head get so big over it. It can easily be taken away. Had close to 50% cash going into Sept 08 and put it all in as the markets plunged.....very slowly peeling some out knowing that noone can really predict the short term and that the majority will be wrong at major turning points this rally can last long enough to increase sentiment much more only to eventually crush it down again.
    The US is in the weakest financial position ever in modern times imo. We will be held hostage to our deficit and energy needs if we do not get our act together real soon.
    May 06 01:22 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Why are gold and silver rallying and treasuries holding strong if everything's gravy?

    MM
    May 06 03:14 PM | Link | Reply
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