At The Big Picture, an analyst looks at PIMCO's record as a Fed forecaster and finds it wanting. "Whatever insight PIMCO gleaned from being the world’s biggest bond fund was consistently overridden by their talking their book," says Barry Ritholtz, who also points out the lack of incentive that TV channels have to question such a big advertiser.
I have often wondered why other stock/bond analysts are made to disclose their holdings or conflicts in their recommendations, but PIMCO talkingheads who advocate for this or that government policy are never asked how same would advance PIMCO's interests. Blatant conflicts are possible, though I believe Gross is an honest guy, but that wouldn't stop him from promoting his own interests.
I would use the data another way. Assuming PIMCO is talking its own book, one only needs to pay careful attention to infer its bets. Then, one must be on the same side of that bet. I don't frequently trade bonds, but this is how I would.
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