Nonfarm payrolls:-467K in June vs. consensus estimate of -365K. May revised to -322K from -345K. Unemployment jumps to 9.5% from 9.4%, vs. 9.6% consensus.
With advanced degrees in both economics and finance, I place great deal of importance upon macreconomic developments and fundamental analyses of industries and individual companies In typical markets, I seek out investment themes which offer compelling reasons to invest in a group of like... More
Much greater losses than expected and "today's report also showed the average work week fell to 33 hours, the lowest level since records began in 1964, from 33.1 hours in May"
Ed is a graduate of The School of the Ozarks (now known as College of the Ozarks) in Southwest Missouri. He spent 14 years in broadcast news in the Midwest covering, among other things, commodities. He is currently manager of a healthcare support facility doing over two million dollars a year in... More
Normally June data shows an increase in the Civilian Labor force (summer jobs). Not this time, decrease of 155,000, overall employement off 374,000. Percentage is a joke
Goldman Sach , a wall street broker is a dangerous for our country. It is too powerful entity and for the sake of the country it should be split into 3-4 firms. This firm owns politicians ( Henry Paulson) and dictate the policies in Washington.
1. Internet bubble was created by the Goldman.
2. The law on housing market was changed on the advise of government, which allowed a $14000 a year employee to qualify for $800 k mortgage
3. On the advise of Henry Paulson, who was the chairman of Goldman in 2002, the banks increased the leverage from 12 times to 40 times.
4. Goldman commodity sector did a fraud on oil and pumped the oil prices to $150 a barrel.
5. Goldman advised government to bankrupt Lehman, to get rid of it’s competitor
6. Same Goldman advised government to bail out AIG and Pocketed $25 billion dollars of tax payer money.
First Goldman took money from people 401k accounts, by pumping and dumping stock market. The second step was to take all their money from their home equity by pumping and dumping house prices. The last frontier is to devalue dollar and bring American people on is knees. That’s why advising government to bring stimulate packages and print dollar. No politician is talking about bringing back American jobs. Where is our indusial policy? All politicians are controlled by Goldman Sach. The free market policy hyped by Goldman Sach is killing the country. No country has gotten rich by sending it’s jobs overseas. The only country getting rich are the oil producing countries and China. Is Goldman Sach is working for them? May be, getting big business in china All the media and politicians are owned by Goldman Sach. Free market is good with rest of the world, but not with any east Asian countries like Japan, China, India etc. These countries don’t have any internal consumption and depend on export. Theses countries are getting rich by destroying American industries and jobs,. We Americans are doomed. The big cooperation’s ( Cisco, oracle, and Caterpillar) are advocating free market, as they get cheap labor in those countries and fatting their profit. That is not helping American people. The greed is on extreme in America. Counties and states are getting bankrupt because jobs are going overseas, which results in loss of taxes , depreciation of property, and closure of small businesses. One lost job to overseas , cost five more jobs lost, which depend on the lost overseas job. The state like California is talking about cutting expenses, but no body is talking about increasing revenue , by creating jobs. Bottom line is that Those Asian countries need USA, but USA don’t need them. We need industrial policy, an industrial policy to bring jobs back. We need to tax the goods from China, India, Japan ( any country with surplus with USA). If USA wants to save money , we should outsource our military and police to Taliban ( Just a Joke, but larry Kudlow in CNBC will do it). The above points are valid, but Goldman will not let government take the above steps, and if any politician will try to bring change, the Goldman will crash the Market. Remember , march 2009 crash. China is systematically destroying USA industries, like ban on Google, on gaming software and now on American chicken . Japanese did the same to USA industries during 80’s and 90’s. The USA is heading towards higher taxes and weak dollar unless we bring back our industries and increase our tax base. We went to far in free market and paying the price, while other countries are enjoying it.
The next advise of the Goldman Sach to the government will be to sell California to china and Goldman sach will make billions from the commission. Than will be Hawaii, Alaska, etc.
We are lovers and traders of stocks. Our trading advice is designed to help the "do-it-yourselfers" in the trading world. We don't recommend the Googles and RIMMs of the world. We recommend stocks in the range for all to trade.
Carlos Lam is a deputy prosecuting attorney in a mid-sized county in a midwestern state. An adherent in the Austrian School of economics, he believes that to truly prosper as the republic envisioned by the Founding Fathers, we must return to principles of sound money and limited government. He... More
Good point. Also note that overtime stayed the same at 2.8 hours per week. No job growth will occur until (if?) this number rises.
On Jul 02 08:40 AM CautiousInvestor wrote:
> Much greater losses than expected and "today's report also showed > the average work week fell to 33 hours, the lowest level since records > began in 1964, from 33.1 hours in May"
The consensus estimate of almost any economic measure has been so wrong in estimating the depth and length of our recession for so long, it is simply not worth paying any attention to them.
I said now more than a year ago that when economists begin to OVERSTATE the seriousness of our recession we can begin thinking about a recovery. So far, they have failed miserably, and I don't expect a recovery to begin (more accurately, the bottom of the recession) until at least the middle of 2010. Even then, recovery will be slow and uncertain.
We actually could be in this hole (ie--below previous economic and market peaks) for up to a decade. I hope not, but I think its a distinct possibility.
If the consensus was that 365K people would be newly unemployed, how could they get to a consensus estimate that the RATE of unemployment would be 9.6%.
The actual job losses were 467K and the rate escalated to "only" 9.5%.
Don't have the patience to research this, so could someone who might already know please explain how the "consensus" can underestimate the non-farm payrolls drop by 100K , but then the unemployment number was expected to be worse than it actually was (9.6 vs. 9.5)?
Carlos Lam is a deputy prosecuting attorney in a mid-sized county in a midwestern state. An adherent in the Austrian School of economics, he believes that to truly prosper as the republic envisioned by the Founding Fathers, we must return to principles of sound money and limited government. He... More
Oh, and let's not forget the foolish birth/death guess...errr model adjustments for June-09:
Total adjustment +185K * Construction +31K * Leisure & Hospitality +87K
Without the b/d model adjustment, it would've been 652K downward. I have never trusted the b/d adjustments. They are too easily massaged by the BLS to put the best spin on the figures.
David White: Another hot topic for Obama should be the continued shut down of US oil refining capacity. This trend will lead to higher US trade deficits.
23 minutes ago
David White: SEB reports net profit. Says it has seen improvement in the Baltic countries, which have been resonsible for lots of its loan losses.
about 1 hour ago
marktaylor: 55 communities, But i just love Golf communities,
This news story has 11 comments:
Goldman Sach , a wall street broker is a dangerous for our country. It is too powerful entity and for the sake of the country it should be split into 3-4 firms. This firm owns politicians ( Henry Paulson) and dictate the policies in Washington.
1. Internet bubble was created by the Goldman.
2. The law on housing market was changed on the advise of government, which allowed a $14000 a year employee to qualify for $800 k mortgage
3. On the advise of Henry Paulson, who was the chairman of Goldman in 2002, the banks increased the leverage from 12 times to 40 times.
4. Goldman commodity sector did a fraud on oil and pumped the oil prices to $150 a barrel.
5. Goldman advised government to bankrupt Lehman, to get rid of it’s competitor
6. Same Goldman advised government to bail out AIG and Pocketed $25 billion dollars of tax payer money.
First Goldman took money from people 401k accounts, by pumping and dumping stock market. The second step was to take all their money from their home equity by pumping and dumping house prices. The last frontier is to devalue dollar and bring American people on is knees. That’s why advising government to bring stimulate packages and print dollar. No politician is talking about bringing back American jobs. Where is our indusial policy? All politicians are controlled by Goldman Sach. The free market policy hyped by Goldman Sach is killing the country. No country has gotten rich by sending it’s jobs overseas. The only country getting rich are the oil producing countries and China. Is Goldman Sach is working for them? May be, getting big business in china All the media and politicians are owned by Goldman Sach. Free market is good with rest of the world, but not with any east Asian countries like Japan, China, India etc. These countries don’t have any internal consumption and depend on export. Theses countries are getting rich by destroying American industries and jobs,. We Americans are doomed. The big cooperation’s ( Cisco, oracle, and Caterpillar) are advocating free market, as they get cheap labor in those countries and fatting their profit. That is not helping American people. The greed is on extreme in America. Counties and states are getting bankrupt because jobs are going overseas, which results in loss of taxes , depreciation of property, and closure of small businesses. One lost job to overseas , cost five more jobs lost, which depend on the lost overseas job. The state like California is talking about cutting expenses, but no body is talking about increasing revenue , by creating jobs. Bottom line is that Those Asian countries need USA, but USA don’t need them. We need industrial policy, an industrial policy to bring jobs back. We need to tax the goods from China, India, Japan ( any country with surplus with USA). If USA wants to save money , we should outsource our military and police to Taliban ( Just a Joke, but larry Kudlow in CNBC will do it). The above points are valid, but Goldman will not let government take the above steps, and if any politician will try to bring change, the Goldman will crash the Market. Remember , march 2009 crash. China is systematically destroying USA industries, like ban on Google, on gaming software and now on American chicken . Japanese did the same to USA industries during 80’s and 90’s. The USA is heading towards higher taxes and weak dollar unless we bring back our industries and increase our tax base. We went to far in free market and paying the price, while other countries are enjoying it.
The next advise of the Goldman Sach to the government will be to sell California to china and Goldman sach will make billions from the commission. Than will be Hawaii, Alaska, etc.
On Jul 02 08:40 AM CautiousInvestor wrote:
> Much greater losses than expected and "today's report also showed
> the average work week fell to 33 hours, the lowest level since records
> began in 1964, from 33.1 hours in May"
I said now more than a year ago that when economists begin to OVERSTATE the seriousness of our recession we can begin thinking about a recovery. So far, they have failed miserably, and I don't expect a recovery to begin (more accurately, the bottom of the recession) until at least the middle of 2010. Even then, recovery will be slow and uncertain.
We actually could be in this hole (ie--below previous economic and market peaks) for up to a decade. I hope not, but I think its a distinct possibility.
If the consensus was that 365K people would be newly unemployed, how could they get to a consensus estimate that the RATE of unemployment would be 9.6%.
The actual job losses were 467K and the rate escalated to "only" 9.5%.
Figure me that!
Total adjustment +185K
* Construction +31K
* Leisure & Hospitality +87K
Without the b/d model adjustment, it would've been 652K downward. I have never trusted the b/d adjustments. They are too easily massaged by the BLS to put the best spin on the figures.