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Market Currents

Thursday, September 3, 2009
8:32 AM TweetThis
  • Initial Jobless Claims: 570K, down 4K from a week ago (revised) but worse than the 562K consensus. Continuing claims rose 92K to 6.234M.

This news story has 3 comments:

  •  
    Again over looked is EUC claims, increasing those drawing continuing benefits week over week to 178,000.

    States reported 3,029,668 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending Aug. 15, an increase of 85,570 from the prior week. There were 1,550,093 claimants in the comparable week in 2008. EUC weekly claims include both first and second tier activity.
    2009 Sep 03 08:41 AM Reply
  •  
    This has been said over and over..but the press will say there is a recovery....this is a lagging indicator....and so on...the fact is we are going to 20% unemployment for a long time.....the government will extend all kinds of benefits...and our deficit will go even higher...the question is when do we default or when does the treasuries stop being bought by real investors..not the Feds...on that date..you can make millions if you play the right game...
    2009 Sep 03 09:36 AM Reply
  •  
    Again, by comparing last week's revised number (574K) with this week's advanced number (570K), the BLS comes up with a decline in new unemployment apps.

    That's apples an oranges.

    Last week's advanced number was 570K, exactly the same as this week's advanced number--570K. That's apples to apples.

    Having tracked these perturbations weekly this year, I can say that the average increase in the newly unemployed SA number has increased more than 3,400 per week from the "advanced" to the "revised" figure. This week's 4,000 person revision is right on track with that average.

    The media effect of comparing the advanced number with last week's revised number is to show a lower increase (or greater decrease) in newly unemployed than actually occurred. The effect on markets is to be expected.

    Just more spin from the BLS.
    2009 Sep 03 10:30 AM Reply
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