Market Currents
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
11:19 AM
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Not exactly scientific, but David Rosenberg has proof we're still headed lower: "You know that when you have Ben Bernanke and Ken Lewis both saying the same thing - the recession is over - one of them can't possibly be telling the truth." Rosenberg warns markets will soon awaken to the reality of a new, frugal U.S. consumer.
This news story has 7 comments:
He is as much a contrary indicator as Bernanke and Lewis.
was going to be at 600 next month......
Bad things happened this past year. But whats done is done and we go from here. When unemployment slowly starts to unwind there will be more disposable income and sales/profits will improve. What folks like Mr. Rosenberg miss is that companies are earning money and are well positioned to have profit increases given their smaller structures.....and it will also spur some (but not a lot) of hiring earlier than people think....some companies have really overcut and will have to add people as business improves.
Lets face it, March 6th was priced for the great depression...and those that were saying sell believed it would be as bad as the Great Depression that really happened. We've gotten back into the neighborhood of a recession with the stock market and since it appears we have begun to work our way out the market should continue to see upside as long as that progress continues. Why base the rally on a mispriced depression low-point? Profits estimates for 2010 still need to be raised IMO and that puts the S&P at a decent value level. And when one considers the 1% interest rates (and lower) banks are paying it makes equities look even more attractive.
On Sep 16 11:43 AM davidbdc wrote:
> Yes, the US consumer HAS pulled back from Oct through this month....and
> now we'll get yr/yr comparisons and things will slowly go up....1%.....1.3%...etc.
>
>
> Bad things happened this past year. But whats done is done and we
> go from here. When unemployment slowly starts to unwind there will
> be more disposable income and sales/profits will improve. What folks
> like Mr. Rosenberg miss is that companies are earning money and are
> well positioned to have profit increases given their smaller structures.....and
> it will also spur some (but not a lot) of hiring earlier than people
> think....some companies have really overcut and will have to add
> people as business improves.
>
> Lets face it, March 6th was priced for the great depression...and
> those that were saying sell believed it would be as bad as the Great
> Depression that really happened. We've gotten back into the neighborhood
> of a recession with the stock market and since it appears we have
> begun to work our way out the market should continue to see upside
> as long as that progress continues. Why base the rally on a mispriced
> depression low-point? Profits estimates for 2010 still need to be
> raised IMO and that puts the S&P at a decent value level. And
> when one considers the 1% interest rates (and lower) banks are paying
> it makes equities look even more attractive.