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Thursday, December 24 2009 |
09:43 EDT |
DJIA (DIA)
S&P 500 (SPY)
- With stocks up more than 55% since March, is it still a "bear market" rally? "Any bears out there ready to capitulate?"
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This news story has 19 comments:
This is not a bear market rally... I've capitulated & decided to remove all money from the trading account... I almost gave up on Monday & bought GE at 14.50 which I thought was over priced, now its 17 only 2 days later...
This is a wild rally.
And hedge.
Standard Operating Procedure... build a bubble, pop it when John Q. Public is all in and a convenient excuse to unload materializes...
TARP money is driving this bubble. Banks can make way more money juicing the stock market, particularly their own shares. While the share price is high, issue more shares; and while interest rates are being held artificially low, time for more bond offerings .
H1N1, Israel attack on Iran, or some other 'black swan' event will be the signal to unload. Probably the end of October as all of the Wall Streeters lock in their gains for their bonuses.
On Sep 16 12:34 PM SecretaryNotSure wrote:
> JP Morgan upgraded its 12 month price target on GE a week ago and
> its already there at 17.One week? Alcoa is now above its 12 month
> price target of 13 set by GS a week or two ago and is the 14 range.
> Better than expected idiots. I hope you are all buying the shares
> they are selling you.
However, I did put trailing stop losses on everything I own to lock in most of the gains.
gato
Generally agree; however, I also believe that any plausible reason to deflect blame (i.e. H1N1, terror attack, etc.) is an entry point to let the market fall back to some reasonable valuation. After the crisis is under control, and victory is claimed, the bubble building starts anew.
Previously I expected 10-12 times trailing earnings, or 1-1.2x sales, or up to 200 percent net tangible assets, or prevailing dividends of 4-6 percent
I now expect 15-18 times normalied earnings, up to two times trailing sales, book value largely irrelevent ( except high leverage), and a prevailing dividend of 2-3.5 percent.
I however remain an economic bear and do not see imminent recovey nor long-term stability.
when i go sort, the market tends to fly to the moon
figure it out ....
8-)
What happens when the stimulus runs out and the consumer stands alone? What happens if the China continues to slow down on debt purchases and forces the FED to continue to buy treasuries? The markets are forward looking 6-9 months, that will bring us to the middle of the Commercial Real Estate meltdown and Att A defaults still at a peak, which will continue to effect U6. THis has to have a profound effect on company profits. After all they can only lay so many people off to give them a bottom line, then they have to sell something at a profit.
seekingalpha.com/insta...
I am seeing lot of bears very frustrated and some starting to capitulate. Also, I see a change in the way market moves in the last 1/2 hour. Previously on down days, market would suddenyl shoot up in last minutes and end the day positive. Now, I don't see that happening. Its another sign that retail investors are throwing in the towel and getting back in. Lastly, with nice profits to show for this year, institutions and funds will not let this year end in a sour note.
So, I think there is market will continue higher for some more time.