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Market Currents

Friday, October 2, 2009
1:36 PM TweetThis
  • Semiconductor sales are another "less bad" indicator, totaling $19.1B in August, down 16.1% from the prior year. In July, sales were 18.2% below last year, and the first half was down 26% Y/Y on average.
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This news story has 5 comments:

  •  
    It's called "Shifting Baselines". Remember how "big" the Big Mac and Whopper used to be? Over time they slowly diminished in size, yet are still considered big because it's all relative.
    As long as CNBC, the rating agencies, as well as other "market movers" use deceptive word du jour's such as "bigger than expected" and "beat the street" the false optimism will prevail.

    Ultra low expectations at the "fail" level that are "beat" is NOT success.
    2009 Oct 02 01:44 PM Reply
  •  
    Sorry, but in the investment world, the trend is your friend. Y/Y trends do matter and recognizing them does lead to success.


    On Oct 02 01:44 PM MarketGuy wrote:

    > It's called "Shifting Baselines". Remember how "big" the Big Mac
    > and Whopper used to be? Over time they slowly diminished in size,
    > yet are still considered big because it's all relative.
    > As long as CNBC, the rating agencies, as well as other "market movers"
    > use deceptive word du jour's such as "bigger than expected" and "beat
    > the street" the false optimism will prevail.
    >
    > Ultra low expectations at the "fail" level that are "beat" is NOT
    > success.
    2009 Oct 02 01:58 PM Reply
  •  
    The trend has gone from negative to negative less. Just think the govt could do a cash for complunker and print another 2-4 billion in money and produce demand out of thin air!
    2009 Oct 02 02:05 PM Reply
  •  
    <"Sorry, but in the investment world, the trend is your friend. Y/Y trends do matter and recognizing them does lead to success.">


    My comment was on a Macro level. Your micro profiting is based on recognizing the failed math and capitalizing on it. For that congratulations are in order, however I stand by my statement.
    2009 Oct 02 02:11 PM Reply
  •  
    If this huge downtrend started 21 months ago, are we better off than we were 10-11 months ago. If the answer is yes...then I don't believe it is foolish to be hopeful. I would also suggest that if we stay afloat ( inject your own definition) that there is an opportunity to restructure tax policy away from the promotion of distribution to the promotion of R&D, product development, infrastructure and capital spending. I guess the catch phrase that is used is "Constructive Destruction" Call me a delusional optimist.


    On Oct 02 02:11 PM MarketGuy wrote:

    > <"Sorry, but in the investment world, the trend is your friend. Y/Y
    > trends do matter and recognizing them does lead to success.">
    >
    >
    > My comment was on a Macro level. Your micro profiting is based on
    > recognizing the failed math and capitalizing on it. For that congratulations
    > are in order, however I stand by my statement.
    2009 Oct 02 08:23 PM Reply
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